---
title: "NIGHTMARE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "NIGHTMARE ($11.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 21 items with odds, observed 83.72% over 15.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [NIGHTMARE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · NIGHTMARE

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare?window=all)

Price · $11.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $9.62 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.72% · 15.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.98% ±6.71 2,937 openings

7 days · 84.29% ±3.53 10.9K openings

30 days · 83.72% ±2.98 15.4K openings

since tracking started · 83.72% ±2.98 15.4K openings

79.5% 87.0% 94.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.55% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.74% – 86.70%, 15,388 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare?window=24h) | 2,937 | 86.98% ±6.71 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare?window=7d) | 10.9K | 84.29% ±3.53 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare) | 15.4K | 83.72% ±2.98 | −2.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nightmare?window=all) | 15.4K | 83.72% ±2.98 | −2.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $887 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $369 | 0.8% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $348 | 1.1% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.86× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $324 | 1.0% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.86× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $262 | 1.4% | 4 | 7.8 | 0.52× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Minimal Wear) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $231 | 1.2% | 11 | 7.8 | 1.42× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $204 | 1.5% | 7 | 10.9 | 0.64× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $142 | 1.5% | 14 | 15.5 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $137 | 1.4% | 18 | 15.5 | 1.16× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 769 | $112 | 1.5% | 20 | 20.2 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 385 | $54.85 | 1.5% | 46 | 40.3 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $38.14 | 25.8% | 908 | 1010.9 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $23.85 | 16.1% | 1,027 | 1007.8 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $22.44 | 16.1% | 994 | 1071.4 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 10.1% | $4.67 | 4.9% | 1,476 | 1558.3 | 0.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 10.3% | $4.24 | 4.5% | 1,621 | 1598.6 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 10.3% | $4.21 | 4.5% | 1,623 | 1603.2 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) | 10.8% | $3.73 | 4.2% | 1,741 | 1682.3 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) | 11.8% | $3.00 | 3.7% | 1,856 | 1835.8 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 12.9% | $2.43 | 3.3% | 1,990 | 1997.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 13.0% | $2.33 | 3.1% | 2,138 | 2007.9 | 1.06× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/nightmare`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Frikie](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Frikie) $11.00 $887 80.64x 2026-11-09 15:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=nightmare)

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) Hidden $11.00 $2.33 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) Hidden $11.00 $3.73 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) Hidden $11.00 $4.24 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) [⭕⃤42✪ CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A442%E2%9C%AA%20CS2.ME) $11.00 $3.73 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) Hidden $11.00 $2.33 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) Hidden $11.00 $4.24 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) Hidden $11.00 $4.24 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) [⭕⃤42✪ CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A442%E2%9C%AA%20CS2.ME) $11.00 $38.14 3.47x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) Hidden $11.00 $4.67 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) Hidden $11.00 $4.67 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $11.00 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $11.00 | 87.19% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $11.00 | 87.65% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $11.00 | 87.81% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $11.00 | 87.73% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $11.00 | 87.58% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $11.00 | 87.26% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $11.00 | 87.00% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $11.00 | 87.18% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $11.00 | 87.75% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $11.00 | 87.53% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $11.00 | 87.85% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $11.00 | 87.58% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $11.00 | 87.36% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $11.00 | 87.66% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $11.00 | 87.78% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.5% sunny 0.1% classified 13.5% Extraordinary 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% Ancient 6.5% Legendary 20.9% pink 20.7% blue 37.7% best hit $887 (80.64x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt