---
title: "NITRO V1 JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "NITRO V1 JOKER ($86.06) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 49 items with odds, observed 84.30% over 1,966 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v1-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [NITRO V1 JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v1-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · NITRO V1 JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v1-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v1-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v1-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v1-joker?window=all)

Price · $86.06

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $75.30 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.30% · 1,966 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.47% ±35.97 265 openings

7 days · 83.12% ±14.23 1,690 openings

30 days · 84.30% ±13.19 1,966 openings

since tracking started · 84.30% ±13.19 1,966 openings

62.0% 98.5% 135.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v1-joker?window=24h) | 265 | 98.47% ±36.0 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v1-joker?window=7d) | 1,690 | 83.12% ±14.2 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v1-joker) | 1,966 | 84.30% ±13.2 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v1-joker?window=all) | 1,966 | 84.30% ±13.2 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,973 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1,128 | 83.2% | 104 | 109.6 | 0.95× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $133 | 9.8% | 118 | 109.6 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $42.44 | 3.1% | 91 | 109.6 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $18.92 | 0.5% | 0 | 36.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $15.51 | 0.6% | 0 | 54.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $13.37 | 0.3% | 0 | 36.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $13.20 | 0.3% | 0 | 36.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $8.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 54.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $7.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $6.78 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $5.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $5.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $4.96 | 0.1% | 0 | 36.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $4.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $4.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $3.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $3.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $3.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 36.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $3.49 | 0.1% | 0 | 36.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $3.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 36.5 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $2.71 | 0.1% | 0 | 54.8 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $1.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.9 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $1.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $1.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $1.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $1.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 54.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $1.36 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.5 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $1.33 | 0.0% | 0 | 54.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $1.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 54.8 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $0.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.5 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $0.84 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.75 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.75 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $0.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.9 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.9 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $0.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.9 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $0.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $0.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.4 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 54.8 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 54.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 113 | 109.6 | 1.03× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/nitro-v1-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $86.79 $1,138 13.11x 2026-11-10 07:59 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Jizzz cs2.me](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Jizzz%20cs2.me) $86.79 $1,138 13.11x 2026-11-09 23:49 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $86.79 $1,138 13.11x 2026-11-09 23:37 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Hot Dumpling](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Hot%20Dumpling) $86.79 $1,138 13.11x 2026-11-09 23:34 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [(:\*Dzojnacka\*:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%28%3A*Dzojnacka*%3A%29-76561199033305767) $86.79 $1,138 13.11x 2026-11-09 22:18 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $87.11 $1,137 13.06x 2026-11-08 20:29 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [(:\*Dzojnacka\*:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%28%3A*Dzojnacka*%3A%29-76561199033305767) $86.64 $1,135 13.10x 2026-11-09 22:11 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [(:\*Dzojnacka\*:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%28%3A*Dzojnacka*%3A%29-76561199033305767) $86.64 $1,135 13.10x 2026-11-09 22:11 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $86.64 $1,135 13.10x 2026-11-09 22:10 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [BEBEK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BEBEK) $86.64 $1,135 13.10x 2026-11-09 19:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=nitro-v1-joker)

[P90 | Vent Rush weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush) [PL/KILLER](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PL%2FKILLER) $86.06 $0.96 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [PL/KILLER](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PL%2FKILLER) $86.06 $133 1.55x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite) [ochwatv1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ochwatv1) $86.06 $15.16 0.18x 2026-11-11 20:43 UTC

[M249 | Nebula Crusader weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader) Hidden $86.06 $2.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:41 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Tosai weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai) Hidden $86.06 $0.84 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net) Hidden $86.06 $3.96 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:41 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech) [stivalta67](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/stivalta67) $86.06 $1.00 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:41 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) Hidden $86.06 $4.58 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $86.06 $1,128 13.10x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal) Hidden $86.06 $12.06 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $86.06 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $85.86 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $86.06 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $86.79 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $86.64 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $87.11 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $85.24 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $84.96 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $84.73 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $81.78 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $84.57 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $84.22 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $84.57 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $84.22 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $85.13 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $83.05 | 87.50% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.6% sunny 5.6% red 9.3% #eb4b4b 1.9% #d32ce6 2.8% classified 4.2% Classified 2.8% pink 5.6% restricted 8.3% Legendary 1.4% Mythical 13.6% uncommon 6.9% violet 26.7% #8847ff 5.6% best hit $1,138 (13.11x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt