---
title: "NITRO V3 JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "NITRO V3 JOKER ($1,301.51) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 124 items with odds, observed 94.66% over 1,721 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v3-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [NITRO V3 JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v3-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · NITRO V3 JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v3-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v3-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v3-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v3-joker?window=all)

Price · $1,301.51

Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $1,177.87 from 124 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.66% · 1,721 openings, sample method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 20 openings · below min

7 days · 99.58% ±14.65 600 openings

30 days · 94.66% ±8.27 1,721 openings

since tracking started · 94.66% ±8.27 1,721 openings

41.5% 122.5% 203.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v3-joker?window=24h) | 20 | 122.56% ±80.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v3-joker?window=7d) | 600 | 99.58% ±14.6 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v3-joker) | 1,721 | 94.66% ±8.27 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/nitro-v3-joker?window=all) | 1,721 | 94.66% ±8.27 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 124 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,721 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 260 | $18.9K | 6.2% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 195 | $14.8K | 6.5% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 260 | $13.8K | 4.5% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 195 | $12.2K | 5.3% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 260 | $9,628 | 3.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 195 | $9,562 | 4.2% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $8,950 | 3.9% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 195 | $7,130 | 3.1% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 260 | $6,487 | 2.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $6,120 | 2.7% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 260 | $5,630 | 1.8% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $4,065 | 2.7% | 0 | 13.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 260 | $4,017 | 1.3% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 260 | $3,527 | 1.2% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 195 | $3,279 | 1.4% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 65 | $3,140 | 4.1% | 23 | 26.5 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $2,804 | 1.8% | 0 | 13.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 326 | $2,797 | 0.7% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 260 | $2,592 | 0.8% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 195 | $2,547 | 1.1% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $2,262 | 3.0% | 24 | 26.5 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $2,171 | 0.9% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 65 | $2,146 | 2.8% | 27 | 26.5 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 195 | $1,913 | 0.8% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 65 | $1,627 | 2.1% | 31 | 26.5 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $1,569 | 0.7% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $1,408 | 0.9% | 0 | 13.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 195 | $1,361 | 0.6% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $1,345 | 1.8% | 34 | 26.5 | 1.28× |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $1,337 | 1.7% | 20 | 26.5 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 326 | $1,254 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $1,167 | 0.8% | 0 | 13.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $1,123 | 1.5% | 26 | 26.5 | 0.98× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 65 | $1,071 | 1.4% | 35 | 26.5 | 1.32× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $1,053 | 1.4% | 24 | 26.5 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $1,021 | 0.7% | 0 | 13.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 325 | $1,014 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 260 | $990 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) | 1 in 195 | $977 | 0.4% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 325 | $933 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $903 | 1.2% | 36 | 26.5 | 1.36× |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 260 | $901 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 260 | $882 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 260 | $870 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $817 | 0.5% | 0 | 13.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $797 | 1.0% | 29 | 26.5 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $793 | 1.0% | 19 | 26.5 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 325 | $716 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $662 | 0.9% | 31 | 26.5 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $616 | 0.8% | 31 | 26.5 | 1.17× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $610 | 0.3% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $610 | 0.8% | 28 | 26.5 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-minimal-wear) | 1 in 195 | $597 | 0.3% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 260 | $532 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 65 | $513 | 0.7% | 17 | 26.5 | 0.64× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 65 | $506 | 0.7% | 21 | 26.5 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $446 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $446 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 195 | $417 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 326 | $411 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 260 | $410 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 326 | $401 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $400 | 0.5% | 27 | 26.5 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 260 | $390 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) | 1 in 195 | $369 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 195 | $365 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $345 | 0.5% | 20 | 26.5 | 0.76× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $340 | 0.4% | 29 | 26.5 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 260 | $320 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 195 | $291 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 260 | $284 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · sunny · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 65 | $283 | 0.4% | 35 | 26.5 | 1.32× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $282 | 0.4% | 33 | 26.5 | 1.25× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 260 | $277 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 65 | $269 | 0.4% | 24 | 26.5 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $269 | 0.2% | 0 | 13.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $266 | 0.2% | 0 | 13.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $261 | 0.3% | 27 | 26.5 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $256 | 0.3% | 24 | 26.5 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $222 | 0.3% | 21 | 26.5 | 0.79× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $219 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $218 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 260 | $217 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 260 | $212 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 260 | $210 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 325 | $200 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 195 | $197 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 260 | $193 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $175 | 0.2% | 31 | 26.5 | 1.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 260 | $175 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $174 | 0.2% | 22 | 26.5 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 325 | $172 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 260 | $166 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 65 | $164 | 0.2% | 23 | 26.5 | 0.87× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $156 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 260 | $155 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 65 | $152 | 0.2% | 20 | 26.5 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 260 | $152 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $147 | 0.2% | 25 | 26.5 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 260 | $147 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 195 | $146 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $141 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $137 | 0.2% | 30 | 26.5 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 325 | $128 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $125 | 0.2% | 22 | 26.5 | 0.83× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $125 | 0.2% | 24 | 26.5 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 325 | $124 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 260 | $121 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $119 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $118 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 325 | $115 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $111 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $109 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $109 | 0.1% | 44 | 26.5 | 1.66× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $105 | 0.1% | 16 | 26.5 | 0.60× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 195 | $104 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $100 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $90.45 | 0.1% | 30 | 26.5 | 1.13× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $81.55 | 0.1% | 29 | 26.5 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 325 | $71.74 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 195 | $64.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $58.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 325 | $54.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 325 | $53.92 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/nitro-v3-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) [co tam](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/co%20tam) $1,323 $12.3K 9.31x 2026-11-08 16:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $1,323 $12.3K 9.31x 2026-11-07 13:24 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $1,323 $12.3K 9.31x 2026-11-07 07:15 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $1,316 $12.3K 9.34x 2026-11-08 21:25 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $1,316 $12.3K 9.34x 2026-11-08 17:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $1,320 $12.2K 9.27x 2026-11-06 18:03 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $1,325 $12.2K 9.19x 2026-11-03 11:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $1,325 $12.2K 9.19x 2026-11-03 11:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $1,325 $12.2K 9.19x 2026-11-03 11:20 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $1,325 $12.2K 9.19x 2026-11-03 10:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=nitro-v3-joker)

[★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1,302 $125 0.10x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $1,302 $269 0.21x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1,302 $175 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1,302 $90.45 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov) Hidden $1,302 $126 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $1,302 $903 0.69x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $1,302 $616 0.47x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1,302 $793 0.61x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1,302 $610 0.47x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $1,302 $109 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1,302 | 90.50% | 124 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1,304 | 90.50% | 124 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $1,305 | 90.50% | 124 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1,312 | 90.50% | 124 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1,316 | 90.50% | 124 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $1,323 | 90.50% | 124 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $1,320 | 90.50% | 124 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1,327 | 90.50% | 124 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1,325 | 90.50% | 124 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $1,325 | 90.50% | 124 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 1.7% covert 77.4% contraband 1.5% extraordinary 2.3% gold 2.4% epic 3.1% classified 6.2% sunny 2.4% rare 1.5% red 0.4% Immortal 1.0% best hit $12.3K (9.31x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt