---
title: "ORGANIC JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "ORGANIC JOKER ($7.05) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 33 items with odds, observed 85.88% over 22.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ORGANIC JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ORGANIC JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic-joker?window=all)

Price · $7.05

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $6.17 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.88% · 22.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.99% ±8.37 2,445 openings

7 days · 85.56% ±3.12 18.6K openings

30 days · 85.88% ±2.82 22.8K openings

since tracking started · 85.88% ±2.82 22.8K openings

71.0% 80.3% 89.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic-joker?window=24h) | 2,445 | 79.99% ±8.37 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic-joker?window=7d) | 18.6K | 85.56% ±3.12 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic-joker) | 22.8K | 85.88% ±2.82 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic-joker?window=all) | 22.8K | 85.88% ±2.82 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $65.16 | 58.7% | 1,239 | 1266.1 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $17.54 | 15.8% | 1,259 | 1266.1 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $7.79 | 3.5% | 0 | 632.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $6.74 | 3.0% | 0 | 632.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $6.50 | 2.9% | 0 | 633.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $6.28 | 1.9% | 0 | 421.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $6.03 | 5.4% | 1,214 | 1266.1 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $4.43 | 2.0% | 0 | 633.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $2.66 | 0.8% | 0 | 422.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $2.60 | 0.8% | 0 | 421.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $2.51 | 0.8% | 0 | 422.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $1.15 | 0.3% | 0 | 422.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.96 | 0.4% | 0 | 632.9 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-lunar-wyrm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $0.95 | 0.2% | 0 | 316.6 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.83 | 0.4% | 0 | 633.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.83 | 0.4% | 0 | 633.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $0.64 | 0.3% | 0 | 633.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $0.58 | 0.2% | 0 | 422.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.57 | 0.3% | 0 | 633.2 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 633.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 633.2 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $0.43 | 0.2% | 0 | 633.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-lunar-wyrm-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 316.6 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.35 | 0.2% | 0 | 633.2 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 633.2 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 633.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-lunar-wyrm-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 316.6 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 633.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-lunar-wyrm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 0 | 316.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.20 | 0.2% | 1,293 | 1266.3 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Parched (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-parched-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 1,336 | 1266.3 | 1.06× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 1,250 | 1266.3 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 1,264 | 1266.3 | 1.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/organic-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=organic-joker)

[SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.07 $0.14 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC

[AWP | Phobos weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos) [Nissan Laurel C35cstorm.pl](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Nissan%20Laurel%20C35cstorm.pl) $7.07 $4.07 0.58x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC

[SG 553 | Danger Close weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close) Hidden $7.07 $0.48 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-lunar-wyrm) Hidden $7.07 $0.48 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $7.07 $16.98 2.40x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-field-tested) [fishi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/fishi) $7.07 $0.20 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) Hidden $7.07 $5.38 0.76x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.07 $0.14 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) [CS2.ME @bandit SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CS2.ME%20%40bandit%20SKINS) $7.07 $0.14 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech) Hidden $7.07 $0.63 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $7.05 | 87.50% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $7.02 | 87.51% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $7.05 | 87.50% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $7.02 | 87.51% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $7.14 | 87.53% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $7.36 | 87.45% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $7.14 | 87.53% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $6.89 | 87.48% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $7.36 | 87.45% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $7.37 | 87.47% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $7.22 | 87.49% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $7.42 | 87.50% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $7.24 | 87.47% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $7.37 | 87.47% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $7.35 | 87.54% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $7.30 | 87.51% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $7.35 | 87.54% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $7.30 | 87.51% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $7.39 | 87.52% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $7.32 | 87.52% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $7.18 | 87.52% | 33 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $7.29 | 87.49% | 33 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.24 | 87.47% | 33 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $7.29 | 87.49% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.6% blue 31.9% restricted 9.3% uncommon 2.8% Mythical 9.3% pink 8.3% #8847ff 6.5% violet 8.3% Rare 9.7% Mil Spec 2.8% grey 5.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt