---
title: "ORGANIC case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ORGANIC ($0.30) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 33 items with odds, observed 84.19% over 101K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ORGANIC](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ORGANIC

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic?window=all)

Price · $0.30

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.26 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.19% · 101K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.16% ±2.99 11.8K openings

7 days · 84.44% ±1.14 85.1K openings

30 days · 84.19% ±1.05 101K openings

since tracking started · 84.19% ±1.05 101K openings

81.5% 85.3% 89.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 86.92% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.13% – 85.24%, 101,231 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic?window=24h) | 11.8K | 85.16% ±2.99 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic?window=7d) | 85.1K | 84.44% ±1.14 | −4.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic) | 101K | 84.19% ±1.05 | −5.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/organic?window=all) | 101K | 84.19% ±1.05 | −5.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $65.16 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $17.54 | 0.5% | 2 | 7.1 | 0.28× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $7.79 | 0.7% | 0 | 25.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $6.74 | 0.5% | 0 | 20.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,000 | $6.50 | 0.6% | 0 | 25.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $6.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 10.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $6.03 | 1.1% | 45 | 50.8 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,500 | $4.43 | 0.7% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $2.66 | 0.5% | 0 | 50.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 1,266 | $2.60 | 0.8% | 0 | 80.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $2.51 | 0.5% | 0 | 50.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 251 | $1.15 | 1.7% | 0 | 404.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $0.96 | 2.2% | 0 | 617.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-lunar-wyrm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 645 | $0.95 | 0.6% | 0 | 157.4 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $0.83 | 2.1% | 0 | 683.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $0.83 | 2.1% | 0 | 683.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 1 in 131 | $0.64 | 1.9% | 0 | 775.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $0.58 | 3.5% | 0 | 1587.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $0.57 | 3.7% | 0 | 1751.2 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.46 | 3.8% | 0 | 2225.3 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.46 | 3.8% | 0 | 2225.3 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $0.43 | 2.5% | 0 | 1550.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-lunar-wyrm-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $0.41 | 1.3% | 0 | 839.5 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $0.35 | 2.9% | 0 | 2171.4 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.32 | 3.1% | 0 | 2596.8 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.31 | 3.5% | 0 | 2980.5 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-lunar-wyrm-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.29 | 4.1% | 0 | 3724.7 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.29 | 9.1% | 0 | 8390.4 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-lunar-wyrm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.23 | 4.4% | 0 | 5152.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-field-tested) | 13.9% | $0.20 | 10.6% | 15,006 | 14143.3 | 1.06× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Parched (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-parched-field-tested) | 15.6% | $0.15 | 8.9% | 16,300 | 15868.1 | 1.03× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) | 16.1% | $0.14 | 8.6% | 16,008 | 16312.8 | 0.98× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-field-tested) | 16.1% | $0.14 | 8.6% | 15,447 | 16312.8 | 0.95× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/organic`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) [skayro022](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/skayro022) $0.30 $16.97 56.57x 2026-11-08 03:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) [PAŞAALAN - AHMO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PA%C5%9EAALAN%20-%20AHMO) $0.30 $16.97 56.57x 2026-11-07 20:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=organic)

[StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-field-tested) Hidden $0.30 $0.20 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-field-tested) Hidden $0.30 $0.14 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.30 $0.14 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike) [imichalz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/imichalz) $0.30 $0.67 2.23x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[Nova | Windblown weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown) [Vychlazená 10](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Vychlazen%C3%A1%2010) $0.30 $0.35 1.17x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) [Dark](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Dark) $0.30 $0.14 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-field-tested) [\_lt;\_lt;Smoke.Dave\_gt;\_gt;](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_lt%3B_lt%3BSmoke.Dave_gt%3B_gt%3B) $0.30 $0.14 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.30 $0.14 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-field-tested) Hidden $0.30 $0.20 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-field-tested) [karbon](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/karbon) $0.30 $0.20 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.30 | 87.50% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $0.30 | 87.80% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $0.30 | 87.94% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $0.30 | 88.16% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $0.30 | 88.88% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.30 | 88.18% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $0.30 | 87.93% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $0.30 | 84.54% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $0.30 | 85.86% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.30 | 86.59% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $0.30 | 85.75% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $0.30 | 85.87% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.30 | 86.07% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $0.30 | 86.25% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $0.30 | 87.24% | 33 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.30 | 87.68% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% blue 57.9% restricted 0.2% uncommon 0.0% Mythical 4.4% pink 0.1% #8847ff 1.1% violet 4.6% Rare 13.2% Mil Spec 2.9% grey 15.6% best hit $16.97 (56.57x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt