---
title: "POMPA TEAM JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "POMPA TEAM JOKER ($495.23) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 38 items with odds, observed 96.74% over 191 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:12Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [POMPA TEAM JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · POMPA TEAM JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team-joker?window=all)

Price · $495.23

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $433.33 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.74% · 191 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 34 openings · below min

7 days · 96.86% ±19.09 180 openings

30 days · 96.74% ±18.52 191 openings

since tracking started · 96.74% ±18.52 191 openings

69.0% 113.8% 158.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team-joker?window=24h) | 34 | 113.73% ±44.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team-joker?window=7d) | 180 | 96.86% ±19.1 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team-joker) | 191 | 96.74% ±18.5 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team-joker?window=all) | 191 | 96.74% ±18.5 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 203 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $2,212 | 31.9% | 16 | 12.7 | 1.26× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1,616 | 23.3% | 17 | 12.7 | 1.34× |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1,155 | 16.7% | 9 | 12.7 | 0.71× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $797 | 11.5% | 14 | 12.7 | 1.10× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $345 | 2.5% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $300 | 0.9% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $219 | 3.2% | 13 | 12.7 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $193 | 0.9% | 0 | 4.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $169 | 1.2% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $156 | 0.7% | 0 | 4.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $147 | 0.5% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $135 | 0.6% | 0 | 4.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $132 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $104 | 0.8% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $97.28 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $89.73 | 0.6% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $82.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $76.80 | 0.3% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $72.97 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $71.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $69.87 | 0.5% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $60.24 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $55.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $54.01 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $52.26 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $44.42 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $42.34 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $36.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $35.22 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $34.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $33.54 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $31.20 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $30.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $24.97 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $23.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $9.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $5.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $3.00 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/pompa-team-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [XAK1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XAK1) $496 $2,212 4.46x 2026-11-10 12:38 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [\_quot;S\_quot; KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_quot%3BS_quot%3B%20KING) $496 $2,212 4.46x 2026-11-10 01:34 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $496 $2,212 4.46x 2026-11-09 22:19 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $496 $2,212 4.46x 2026-11-09 21:43 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $496 $2,212 4.46x 2026-11-09 03:25 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $493 $2,198 4.46x 2026-11-08 21:26 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $491 $2,196 4.47x 2026-11-06 22:21 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [DMG](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/DMG) $491 $2,196 4.47x 2026-11-06 22:21 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $491 $2,196 4.47x 2026-11-06 22:21 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [愛](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E6%84%9B) $491 $2,196 4.47x 2026-11-06 17:51 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=pompa-team-joker)

[AK-47 | Red Laminate weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate) Hidden $491 $82.48 0.17x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $491 $219 0.45x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $491 $797 1.62x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) Hidden $491 $4.45 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyrex weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex) Hidden $491 $16.06 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $491 $131 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $491 $2,171 4.42x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $491 $1,592 3.24x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $491 $2,171 4.42x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $491 $1,592 3.24x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $495 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $496 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $496 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $493 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $491 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $494 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $495 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $498 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $497 | 87.50% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 40.6% classified 28.1% rare 6.3% restricted 5.0% red 3.1% violet 1.3% Legendary 3.1% pink 6.3% Mythical 6.3% best hit $2,212 (4.46x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt