---
title: "POMPA TEAM case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "POMPA TEAM ($35.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.05% from 38 items with odds, observed 88.64% over 4,544 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [POMPA TEAM](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · POMPA TEAM

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team?window=all)

Price · $35.50

Advertised RTP · 87.05% · EV $30.90 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.64% · 4,544 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 96.11% ±12.32 567 openings

7 days · 88.98% ±4.75 3,804 openings

30 days · 88.64% ±4.35 4,544 openings

since tracking started · 88.64% ±4.35 4,544 openings

83.0% 96.0% 109.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team?window=24h) | 567 | 96.11% ±12.3 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team?window=7d) | 3,804 | 88.98% ±4.75 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team) | 4,544 | 88.64% ±4.35 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/pompa-team?window=all) | 4,544 | 88.64% ±4.35 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,549 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $2,117 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 3,846 | $1,604 | 1.3% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.54× |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $1,153 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,389 | $797 | 1.9% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $345 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $295 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 481 | $204 | 1.4% | 2 | 9.5 | 0.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 1,266 | $186 | 0.5% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 529 | $165 | 1.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $154 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,064 | $153 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 885 | $138 | 0.5% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,639 | $120 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 781 | $107 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 323 | $93.31 | 0.9% | 0 | 14.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 101 | $90.45 | 2.9% | 0 | 45.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $80.78 | 2.7% | 0 | 46.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $77.59 | 2.8% | 0 | 50.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $74.64 | 3.6% | 0 | 67.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $72.41 | 3.5% | 0 | 67.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $69.10 | 4.3% | 0 | 87.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $61.70 | 9.0% | 0 | 205.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $58.64 | 2.2% | 0 | 53.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $56.83 | 4.1% | 0 | 101.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $54.76 | 4.7% | 0 | 120.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $43.61 | 5.5% | 0 | 177.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $40.55 | 2.3% | 0 | 80.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $40.25 | 2.4% | 0 | 84.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $36.89 | 2.6% | 0 | 97.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $35.97 | 1.9% | 0 | 73.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $32.02 | 2.0% | 0 | 88.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $31.38 | 2.0% | 0 | 91.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $31.33 | 2.1% | 0 | 93.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 22.4% | $24.62 | 17.8% | 0 | 1017.8 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $23.38 | 1.6% | 0 | 99.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 18.6% | $9.58 | 5.8% | 0 | 844.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 10.5% | $5.80 | 2.0% | 0 | 475.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $3.14 | 0.9% | 0 | 418.4 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/pompa-team`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [HyeXX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/HyeXX) $35.50 $2,212 62.30x 2026-11-10 07:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $35.50 $1,624 45.74x 2026-11-08 12:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $35.50 $1,592 44.85x 2026-11-11 05:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $35.50 $1,592 44.85x 2026-11-10 23:17 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $35.50 $819 23.07x 2026-11-03 14:13 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $35.50 $811 22.86x 2026-11-04 20:57 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $35.50 $797 22.45x 2026-11-10 17:26 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $35.50 $758 21.35x 2026-11-07 14:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=pompa-team)

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) [Ördög](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%C3%96rd%C3%B6g) $35.50 $4.55 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyrex weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex) Hidden $35.50 $11.03 0.31x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyrex weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex) Hidden $35.50 $11.03 0.31x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) [SoBoL BuK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SoBoL%20BuK) $35.50 $4.55 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental) Hidden $35.50 $27.41 0.77x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) Hidden $35.50 $4.55 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor) Hidden $35.50 $42.39 1.19x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental) [SoBoL BuK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SoBoL%20BuK) $35.50 $27.41 0.77x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) Hidden $35.50 $4.55 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental) Hidden $35.50 $27.41 0.77x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $35.50 | 87.05% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $35.50 | 87.05% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $35.50 | 87.11% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $35.50 | 86.97% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $35.50 | 87.05% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $35.50 | 87.08% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $35.50 | 86.53% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $35.50 | 87.05% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $35.50 | 87.08% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $35.50 | 87.05% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $35.50 | 86.53% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $35.50 | 86.66% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $35.50 | 87.05% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $35.50 | 86.91% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $35.50 | 87.02% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $35.50 | 87.23% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $35.50 | 87.02% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $35.50 | 87.04% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $35.50 | 87.04% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $35.50 | 86.61% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $35.50 | 87.10% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $35.50 | 87.55% | 38 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $35.50 | 87.01% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 13.9% classified 11.7% rare 0.1% restricted 5.9% red 3.6% violet 2.1% Legendary 22.4% pink 20.8% Mythical 19.6% best hit $2,212 (62.30x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.05 on average: an expected loss of $12.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt