---
title: "QUANTUM JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "QUANTUM JOKER ($2,030.20) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 40 items with odds, observed 96.15% over 375 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [QUANTUM JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · QUANTUM JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum-joker?window=all)

Price · $2,030.20

Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $1,837.33 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.15% · 375 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 35 openings · below min

7 days · 95.86% ±13.05 369 openings

30 days · 96.15% ±12.94 375 openings

since tracking started · 96.15% ±12.94 375 openings

32.0% 75.3% 118.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum-joker?window=24h) | 35 | 75.37% ±42.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum-joker?window=7d) | 369 | 95.86% ±13.0 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum-joker) | 375 | 96.15% ±12.9 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum-joker?window=all) | 375 | 96.15% ±12.9 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 431 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $10.3K | 22.4% | 16 | 17.2 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $8,950 | 19.5% | 17 | 17.2 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6,120 | 13.3% | 23 | 17.2 | 1.33× |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2,980 | 6.5% | 18 | 17.2 | 1.04× |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2,262 | 4.9% | 19 | 17.2 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1,751 | 3.8% | 17 | 17.2 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1,707 | 3.7% | 22 | 17.2 | 1.28× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,498 | 0.8% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1,435 | 3.1% | 20 | 17.2 | 1.16× |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1,398 | 1.5% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $1,361 | 3.0% | 15 | 17.2 | 0.87× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1,345 | 2.9% | 16 | 17.2 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1,167 | 2.5% | 12 | 17.2 | 0.70× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1,066 | 1.2% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $1,023 | 0.7% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $908 | 1.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $797 | 1.7% | 21 | 17.2 | 1.22× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $759 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $666 | 0.5% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $584 | 0.6% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $582 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $563 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $549 | 1.2% | 19 | 17.2 | 1.10× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $530 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $446 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $365 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $357 | 0.8% | 16 | 17.2 | 0.93× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $337 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $291 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $266 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $196 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $184 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $169 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 25 | $160 | 0.3% | 13 | 17.2 | 0.75× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $159 | 0.3% | 13 | 17.2 | 0.75× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $154 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $150 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $87.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $65.48 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $56.11 | 0.1% | 25 | 17.2 | 1.45× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/quantum-joker`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [XAK1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XAK1) $2,058 $10.4K 5.06x 2026-11-07 12:56 UTC

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $2,058 $10.4K 5.06x 2026-11-07 12:39 UTC

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $2,048 $10.3K 5.04x 2026-11-06 10:50 UTC

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $2,048 $10.3K 5.04x 2026-11-06 10:43 UTC

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $2,048 $10.3K 5.04x 2026-11-06 10:43 UTC

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $2,049 $10.3K 5.04x 2026-11-06 00:07 UTC

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $2,049 $10.3K 5.04x 2026-11-06 00:06 UTC

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $2,045 $10.3K 5.05x 2026-11-05 02:05 UTC

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $2,035 $10.3K 5.07x 2026-11-10 17:26 UTC

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $2,040 $10.3K 5.04x 2026-11-09 15:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=quantum-joker)

[★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $2,030 $56.11 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $2,030 $1,167 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $2,030 $549 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $2,030 $273 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Vice gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $2,030 $650 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $2,030 $160 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $2,030 $825 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Vice gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $2,030 $650 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $2,030 $6,120 3.01x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $2,030 $76.49 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2,030 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $2,035 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $2,035 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2,040 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $2,044 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2,034 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $2,052 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $2,058 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $2,048 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $2,048 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2,049 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2,036 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $2,045 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2,027 | 90.50% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2,036 | 90.50% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 60.0% contraband 4.0% classified 8.0% restricted 4.0% extraordinary 10.0% rare 5.3% gold 1.3% legendary 1.0% epic 6.3% best hit $10.4K (5.06x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt