---
title: "QUANTUM case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "QUANTUM ($358.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 40 items with odds, observed 88.37% over 1,802 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [QUANTUM](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · QUANTUM

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum?window=all)

Price · $358.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $313.26 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.37% · 1,802 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.45% ±14.88 168 openings

7 days · 88.03% ±5.22 1,440 openings

30 days · 88.37% ±4.67 1,802 openings

since tracking started · 88.37% ±4.67 1,802 openings

63.0% 78.5% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum?window=24h) | 168 | 78.45% ±14.9 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum?window=7d) | 1,440 | 88.03% ±5.22 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum) | 1,802 | 88.37% ±4.67 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/quantum?window=all) | 1,802 | 88.37% ±4.67 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,802 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $10.3K | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $8,950 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $6,120 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $2,980 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $2,262 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,751 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.38× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,707 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.08× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,498 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,435 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.85× |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,398 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,361 | 0.4% | 5 | 1.8 | 2.77× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,345 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $1,167 | 7.7% | 33 | 37.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $1,066 | 2.7% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $1,023 | 2.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $908 | 4.7% | 0 | 29.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $797 | 6.2% | 46 | 43.6 | 1.05× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $759 | 2.1% | 0 | 15.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $666 | 2.4% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $584 | 4.0% | 0 | 38.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $582 | 0.7% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $563 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $549 | 6.2% | 65 | 63.3 | 1.03× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $530 | 6.2% | 0 | 65.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $446 | 6.9% | 0 | 87.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $365 | 8.5% | 0 | 131.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $357 | 6.9% | 205 | 108.7 | 1.89× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $337 | 2.2% | 0 | 37.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $291 | 2.3% | 0 | 44.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $266 | 2.5% | 0 | 52.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $196 | 1.3% | 0 | 36.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $184 | 1.3% | 0 | 39.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $169 | 1.8% | 0 | 60.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 12 | $160 | 4.2% | 165 | 147.2 | 1.12× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $159 | 4.2% | 167 | 147.6 | 1.13× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $154 | 1.9% | 0 | 68.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $150 | 1.4% | 0 | 53.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $87.50 | 1.2% | 0 | 80.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $65.48 | 1.4% | 0 | 120.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) | 12.3% | $56.11 | 2.2% | 197 | 222.2 | 0.89× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/quantum`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [hossy](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/hossy) $358 $10.3K 28.70x 2026-11-09 22:15 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $358 $6,120 17.09x 2026-11-04 20:03 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $358 $2,237 6.25x 2026-11-03 22:09 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $358 $1,798 5.02x 2026-11-03 22:10 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) [Szmaciarz997](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Szmaciarz997) $358 $1,767 4.94x 2026-11-06 17:36 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $358 $1,754 4.90x 2026-11-08 22:07 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $358 $1,718 4.80x 2026-11-07 17:56 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $358 $1,718 4.80x 2026-11-06 20:29 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [hossy](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/hossy) $358 $1,710 4.78x 2026-11-10 09:45 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $358 $1,469 4.10x 2026-11-10 04:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=quantum)

[★ Sport Gloves | Vice gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice) Hidden $358 $380 1.06x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel) Hidden $358 $74.30 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) [roninbaby](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/roninbaby) $358 $56.11 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel) Hidden $358 $74.30 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore) Hidden $358 $394 1.10x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $358 $159 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) [roninbaby](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/roninbaby) $358 $56.11 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $358 $56.11 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $358 $160 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [roninbaby](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/roninbaby) $358 $357 1.00x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $358 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $358 | 87.34% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $358 | 87.44% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $358 | 87.74% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $358 | 87.43% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $358 | 87.67% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $358 | 87.31% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $358 | 87.57% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $358 | 87.65% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $358 | 87.72% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $358 | 87.69% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $358 | 87.32% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $358 | 87.65% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $358 | 87.61% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $358 | 87.59% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 53.8% contraband 0.0% classified 0.1% restricted 0.1% extraordinary 27.3% rare 3.6% gold 0.9% legendary 0.3% epic 13.9% best hit $10.3K (28.70x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt