---
title: "REDSTONE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "REDSTONE JOKER ($1,921.33) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 49 items with odds, observed 89.86% over 539 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/redstone-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [REDSTONE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/redstone-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · REDSTONE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/redstone-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/redstone-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/redstone-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/redstone-joker?window=all)

Price · $1,921.33

Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $1,738.81 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.86% · 539 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 57 openings · below min

7 days · 89.12% ±8.83 425 openings

30 days · 89.86% ±7.81 539 openings

since tracking started · 89.86% ±7.81 539 openings

76.0% 101.0% 126.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/redstone-joker?window=24h) | 57 | 101.06% ±24.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/redstone-joker?window=7d) | 425 | 89.12% ±8.83 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/redstone-joker) | 539 | 89.86% ±7.81 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/redstone-joker?window=all) | 539 | 89.86% ±7.81 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 545 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $8,950 | 13.2% | 12 | 14.0 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $6,120 | 9.0% | 11 | 14.0 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $5,630 | 8.3% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $4,366 | 3.2% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $4,065 | 6.0% | 16 | 14.0 | 1.14× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $2,787 | 4.1% | 18 | 14.0 | 1.29× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $2,738 | 4.0% | 11 | 14.0 | 0.79× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $2,592 | 3.8% | 19 | 14.0 | 1.36× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $2,171 | 3.2% | 8 | 14.0 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 117 | $2,110 | 1.0% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $2,049 | 3.0% | 19 | 14.0 | 1.36× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $2,038 | 3.0% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $1,971 | 2.9% | 18 | 14.0 | 1.29× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $1,719 | 2.5% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $1,635 | 2.4% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $1,630 | 2.4% | 10 | 14.0 | 0.72× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $1,593 | 2.3% | 19 | 14.0 | 1.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $1,569 | 2.3% | 9 | 14.0 | 0.64× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $1,498 | 0.7% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $1,461 | 1.1% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 117 | $1,441 | 0.7% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $1,345 | 2.0% | 12 | 14.0 | 0.86× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $1,138 | 1.7% | 12 | 14.0 | 0.86× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $1,096 | 1.6% | 17 | 14.0 | 1.22× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $1,073 | 1.6% | 5 | 14.0 | 0.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 117 | $1,014 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $968 | 0.7% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $933 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $887 | 1.3% | 14 | 14.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $840 | 1.2% | 14 | 14.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $825 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $797 | 1.2% | 9 | 14.0 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $793 | 1.2% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $759 | 0.6% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $745 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 117 | $716 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $584 | 0.9% | 9 | 14.0 | 0.64× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $580 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $558 | 0.8% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 117 | $551 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $446 | 0.7% | 14 | 14.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $446 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 117 | $365 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $349 | 0.5% | 12 | 14.0 | 0.86× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $294 | 0.4% | 17 | 14.0 | 1.22× |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $273 | 0.4% | 13 | 14.0 | 0.93× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $232 | 0.3% | 18 | 14.0 | 1.29× |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $179 | 0.3% | 14 | 14.0 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $158 | 0.2% | 21 | 14.0 | 1.50× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/redstone-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $1,958 $9,103 4.65x 2026-11-09 12:23 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $1,958 $9,103 4.65x 2026-11-09 11:05 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,952 $9,103 4.66x 2026-11-05 02:07 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [CRISTIANO RONALDO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CRISTIANO%20RONALDO) $1,964 $9,103 4.63x 2026-11-06 00:04 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [XAK1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XAK1) $1,964 $9,103 4.63x 2026-11-05 12:03 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,957 $9,064 4.63x 2026-11-07 01:30 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,957 $9,064 4.63x 2026-11-07 01:22 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,943 $9,031 4.65x 2026-11-04 18:55 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $1,944 $9,025 4.64x 2026-11-03 12:59 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $1,921 $8,950 4.66x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=redstone-joker)

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $1,911 $6,120 3.20x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $1,911 $1,634 0.86x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $1,911 $6,120 3.20x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $1,911 $310 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,921 $1,971 1.03x 2026-11-11 18:32 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,921 $1,138 0.59x 2026-11-11 18:32 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,921 $1,593 0.83x 2026-11-11 18:32 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $1,921 $349 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:32 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $1,921 $887 0.46x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $1,921 $793 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $1,921 | 90.50% | 49 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1,929 | 90.50% | 49 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $1,936 | 90.50% | 49 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1,958 | 90.50% | 49 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1,955 | 90.50% | 49 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $1,966 | 90.50% | 49 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $1,957 | 90.50% | 49 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $1,958 | 90.50% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1,964 | 90.50% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $1,952 | 90.50% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $1,943 | 90.50% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $1,938 | 90.50% | 49 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1,946 | 90.50% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 55.1% contraband 2.6% extraordinary 17.9% sunny 2.6% #ffd700 2.6% epic 2.6% Covert 2.6% rare 2.6% gold 1.3% legendary 2.6% #d32ee6 2.6% pink 5.1% best hit $9,103 (4.65x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt