---
title: "RESTRICTED case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "RESTRICTED ($2.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 93 items with odds, observed 84.50% over 15.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/restricted
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [RESTRICTED](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/restricted)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · RESTRICTED

A case on Casehug (BY RARITY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/restricted?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/restricted?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/restricted) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/restricted?window=all)

Price · $2.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1.75 from 93 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.50% · 15.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 22.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.52% ±20.66 2,014 openings

7 days · 84.70% ±7.95 13.8K openings

30 days · 84.50% ±7.50 15.5K openings

since tracking started · 84.50% ±7.50 15.5K openings

61.0% 82.5% 104.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/restricted?window=24h) | 2,014 | 82.52% ±20.7 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/restricted?window=7d) | 13.8K | 84.70% ±7.95 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/restricted) | 15.5K | 84.50% ±7.50 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/restricted?window=all) | 15.5K | 84.50% ±7.50 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 93 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,707 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $566 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $564 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $541 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $466 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $379 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $139 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $106 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $96.05 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $72.25 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.42× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $63.48 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $47.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $36.48 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $36.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $35.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $34.59 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $32.42 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $31.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $30.39 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $28.60 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $27.19 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $25.71 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $15.77 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $14.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $13.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $12.51 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $12.45 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,125 | $11.81 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,030 | $11.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $10.95 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $9.83 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $9.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $9.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 361 | $7.46 | 1.2% | 0 | 43.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 302 | $7.37 | 1.4% | 0 | 51.3 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-factory-new) | 1 in 408 | $7.10 | 1.0% | 0 | 38.0 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-field-tested) | 1 in 322 | $6.93 | 1.2% | 0 | 48.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 629 | $6.87 | 0.6% | 0 | 24.7 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 134 | $6.55 | 2.8% | 0 | 115.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,149 | $5.91 | 0.3% | 0 | 13.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 352 | $5.75 | 0.9% | 0 | 44.0 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 264 | $5.71 | 1.2% | 0 | 58.8 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 217 | $5.68 | 1.5% | 0 | 71.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 258 | $5.57 | 1.2% | 0 | 60.0 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-field-tested) | 1 in 247 | $5.51 | 1.3% | 0 | 62.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $4.85 | 5.6% | 0 | 314.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $4.38 | 4.2% | 0 | 258.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-factory-new) | 1 in 658 | $4.30 | 0.4% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $3.78 | 6.2% | 0 | 444.3 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) | 1 in 355 | $3.17 | 0.5% | 0 | 43.7 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-factory-new) | 1 in 488 | $3.11 | 0.4% | 0 | 31.8 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $3.00 | 3.8% | 0 | 341.8 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $2.91 | 5.6% | 0 | 520.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $2.78 | 2.3% | 0 | 229.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 162 | $2.63 | 0.9% | 0 | 95.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $2.56 | 2.1% | 0 | 218.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.17 | 9.4% | 0 | 1173.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $1.91 | 0.9% | 0 | 131.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 73 | $1.67 | 1.3% | 0 | 213.5 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $1.67 | 0.6% | 0 | 94.6 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $1.65 | 1.8% | 0 | 288.6 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 202 | $1.64 | 0.5% | 0 | 76.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $1.63 | 1.1% | 0 | 178.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $1.58 | 1.0% | 0 | 173.5 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $1.42 | 1.1% | 0 | 216.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $1.39 | 1.2% | 0 | 238.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $1.33 | 1.2% | 0 | 237.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $1.32 | 1.1% | 0 | 223.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $1.30 | 1.3% | 0 | 262.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $1.29 | 1.1% | 0 | 230.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $1.29 | 1.3% | 0 | 265.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $1.19 | 1.5% | 0 | 343.0 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $1.07 | 2.1% | 0 | 528.9 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 102 | $1.01 | 0.6% | 0 | 152.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.92 | 3.1% | 948 | 926.4 | 1.02× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.80 | 0.4% | 0 | 147.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $0.76 | 0.6% | 0 | 225.5 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $0.69 | 0.7% | 0 | 260.5 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $0.66 | 0.7% | 0 | 277.3 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $0.66 | 0.7% | 0 | 277.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $0.66 | 0.7% | 0 | 293.1 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $0.63 | 0.9% | 0 | 370.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $0.61 | 0.7% | 0 | 306.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.58 | 0.8% | 0 | 351.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $0.54 | 0.8% | 0 | 388.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $0.49 | 0.8% | 0 | 416.7 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.47 | 0.5% | 0 | 310.9 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $0.46 | 0.5% | 0 | 320.5 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $0.44 | 0.6% | 0 | 341.2 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $0.44 | 0.6% | 0 | 341.2 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.41 | 1.0% | 0 | 674.9 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $0.34 | 0.6% | 0 | 489.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.31 | 0.6% | 0 | 558.6 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/restricted`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) Hidden $2.00 $549 274.4x 2026-11-09 09:57 UTC

[FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) [Leewix](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Leewix) $2.00 $104 51.93x 2026-11-05 21:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=restricted)

[P90 | Neoqueen weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen) Hidden $2.00 $0.59 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight) [Marcus](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Marcus) $2.00 $0.75 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz) [Tomczak skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Tomczak%20skins.army) $2.00 $0.36 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[P90 | Neoqueen weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen) Hidden $2.00 $0.59 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.00 $0.92 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight) [Witold Pilecki](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Witold%20Pilecki) $2.00 $0.75 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade) Hidden $2.00 $0.83 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Directive weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive) [Witold Pilecki](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Witold%20Pilecki) $2.00 $1.33 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Directive weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive) [W.](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/W.) $2.00 $1.33 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[P90 | Neoqueen weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen) [NRForceTomi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/NRForceTomi) $2.00 $0.59 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $2.00 | 87.50% | 93 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2.00 | 87.45% | 93 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2.00 | 87.75% | 93 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2.00 | 87.69% | 93 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2.00 | 87.81% | 93 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $2.00 | 88.44% | 93 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $2.00 | 88.36% | 93 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $2.00 | 87.99% | 93 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $2.00 | 87.80% | 93 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.00 | 87.28% | 93 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $2.00 | 88.07% | 93 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.00 | 87.14% | 93 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.00 | 87.76% | 93 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $2.00 | 87.42% | 93 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $2.00 | 87.78% | 93 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $2.00 | 87.81% | 93 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 33.6% violet 42.6% Mythical 11.3% #8847ff 6.9% Restricted 3.4% uncommon 2.3% best hit $549 (274.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt