---
title: "RETRO JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "RETRO JOKER ($191.17) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 57 items with odds, observed 89.83% over 878 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [RETRO JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · RETRO JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro-joker?window=all)

Price · $191.17

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $167.28 from 57 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.83% · 878 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83 openings · below min

7 days · 87.69% ±10.38 837 openings

30 days · 89.83% ±10.14 878 openings

since tracking started · 89.83% ±10.14 878 openings

76.5% 116.0% 155.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro-joker?window=24h) | 83 | 122.00% ±32.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro-joker?window=7d) | 837 | 87.69% ±10.4 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro-joker) | 878 | 89.83% ±10.1 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro-joker?window=all) | 878 | 89.83% ±10.1 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 57 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 889 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1,345 | 30.9% | 37 | 34.2 | 1.08× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $580 | 13.3% | 39 | 34.2 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $551 | 12.7% | 30 | 34.2 | 0.88× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $481 | 11.1% | 29 | 34.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $316 | 7.3% | 37 | 34.2 | 1.08× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $303 | 7.0% | 36 | 34.2 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $156 | 3.6% | 34 | 34.2 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $137 | 1.6% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $122 | 1.4% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $113 | 1.3% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $92.38 | 1.1% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $84.20 | 1.0% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $83.95 | 0.6% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $67.44 | 1.6% | 37 | 34.2 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $63.82 | 0.7% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $55.23 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $54.89 | 0.6% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $54.85 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $42.72 | 0.5% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $40.36 | 0.5% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $36.49 | 0.4% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $31.82 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $31.55 | 0.4% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $24.27 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $17.82 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $17.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $15.68 | 0.2% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $15.48 | 0.2% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $15.36 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $13.66 | 0.2% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $10.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.5 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $8.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $7.65 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $7.34 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $7.25 | 0.1% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $7.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $6.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.5 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $6.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $6.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $4.88 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $4.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $4.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $4.22 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $4.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $4.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $3.56 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-factory-new) | 1 in 104 | $3.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.5 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Factory New) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $1.27 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Charter (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-charter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $1.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $1.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $0.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Charter (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-charter-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $0.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 30 | 34.2 | 0.88× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 30 | 34.2 | 0.88× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/retro-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [MAJSZI](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/MAJSZI) $200 $1,416 7.09x 2026-11-04 16:07 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $200 $1,412 7.07x 2026-11-05 16:20 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $200 $1,412 7.07x 2026-11-05 00:03 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $200 $1,412 7.07x 2026-11-04 21:01 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $200 $1,412 7.07x 2026-11-04 21:01 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $200 $1,412 7.07x 2026-11-04 18:43 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $200 $1,412 7.07x 2026-11-04 18:43 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Rogue1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rogue1) $193 $1,369 7.07x 2026-11-07 23:08 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $193 $1,369 7.07x 2026-11-07 22:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Rogue1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rogue1) $193 $1,369 7.07x 2026-11-07 22:53 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=retro-joker)

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $191 $573 2.99x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream) Hidden $191 $49.71 0.26x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [kamil\_131910skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kamil_131910skins.army) $191 $573 2.99x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $191 $0.43 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) Hidden $191 $301 1.57x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast) Hidden $191 $53.66 0.28x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) [1km/h\_gt;SLIMAK-MONSTER\_lt;](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/1km%2Fh_gt%3BSLIMAK-MONSTER_lt%3B) $191 $301 1.57x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast) [code VESU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/code%20VESU) $191 $53.66 0.28x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $191 $1,345 7.04x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $191 $580 3.04x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $191 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $192 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $193 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $194 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $193 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $194 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $194 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $195 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $193 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $196 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $194 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $196 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 57 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 40.4% #ffd700 3.8% epic 3.8% Covert 1.9% #eb4b4b 1.9% red 1.9% classified 17.5% rare 1.5% #d32ce6 2.3% pink 3.3% Legendary 2.3% violet 10.6% grey 2.6% Common 3.8% gray 1.3% #8847ff 1.0% best hit $1,416 (7.09x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt