---
title: "RETRO case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "RETRO ($11.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 57 items with odds, observed 85.27% over 23.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [RETRO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · RETRO

A case on Casehug (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro?window=all)

Price · $11.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $10.06 from 57 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.27% · 23.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.55% ±7.56 3,644 openings

7 days · 85.37% ±3.08 23K openings

30 days · 85.27% ±3.02 23.8K openings

since tracking started · 85.27% ±3.02 23.8K openings

72.5% 80.8% 89.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro?window=24h) | 3,644 | 80.55% ±7.56 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro?window=7d) | 23K | 85.37% ±3.08 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro) | 23.8K | 85.27% ±3.02 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/retro?window=all) | 23.8K | 85.27% ±3.02 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 57 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $1,345 | 1.5% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $580 | 1.3% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.46× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $551 | 1.4% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,571 | $481 | 1.3% | 10 | 6.7 | 1.50× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,381 | $316 | 1.3% | 15 | 10.0 | 1.50× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,273 | $303 | 1.3% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,176 | $156 | 1.3% | 22 | 20.3 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $137 | 0.6% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 1,754 | $122 | 0.7% | 0 | 13.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 3,846 | $113 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,471 | $92.38 | 0.6% | 0 | 16.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 1,220 | $84.20 | 0.7% | 0 | 19.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,564 | $83.95 | 0.3% | 0 | 9.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 515 | $67.44 | 1.3% | 41 | 46.3 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,205 | $63.82 | 0.5% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,124 | $55.23 | 0.5% | 0 | 21.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 990 | $54.89 | 0.6% | 0 | 24.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 1,099 | $54.85 | 0.5% | 0 | 21.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $42.72 | 5.6% | 0 | 313.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $40.36 | 5.4% | 0 | 319.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $36.49 | 3.0% | 0 | 196.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 699 | $31.82 | 0.5% | 0 | 34.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $31.55 | 7.3% | 0 | 553.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $24.27 | 10.1% | 0 | 998.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $17.82 | 13.4% | 0 | 1805.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $17.12 | 8.5% | 0 | 1189.7 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $15.68 | 5.8% | 0 | 888.3 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $15.48 | 4.0% | 0 | 616.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $15.36 | 1.2% | 0 | 194.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $13.66 | 6.7% | 0 | 1170.6 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 206 | $10.52 | 0.5% | 0 | 115.6 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 234 | $8.86 | 0.4% | 0 | 101.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 196 | $7.65 | 0.4% | 0 | 121.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $7.34 | 0.5% | 0 | 171.4 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $7.25 | 1.7% | 0 | 563.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $7.10 | 0.5% | 0 | 179.5 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $6.32 | 0.6% | 0 | 238.9 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) | 1 in 97 | $6.19 | 0.6% | 0 | 246.0 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $6.10 | 0.6% | 0 | 251.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $4.88 | 0.5% | 0 | 228.4 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $4.80 | 0.5% | 0 | 239.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $4.24 | 0.5% | 0 | 285.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $4.22 | 0.5% | 0 | 280.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $4.16 | 0.5% | 0 | 285.6 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $4.01 | 0.5% | 0 | 308.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $3.56 | 0.7% | 0 | 471.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-factory-new) | 1 in 452 | $3.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 52.7 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Factory New) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $1.27 | 0.2% | 0 | 461.8 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Charter (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-charter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.06 | 0.4% | 0 | 843.3 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $1.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 636.3 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.95 | 0.3% | 0 | 693.1 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Charter (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-charter-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.95 | 0.4% | 0 | 983.0 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 751.0 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 10.4% | $0.46 | 0.5% | 2,568 | 2490.7 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 799.4 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $0.41 | 0.2% | 0 | 884.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 10.9% | $0.41 | 0.4% | 2,629 | 2608.0 | 1.01× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/retro`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $11.50 $1,365 118.7x 2026-11-06 21:21 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [triple](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/triple) $11.50 $1,363 118.5x 2026-11-08 07:33 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [danonn CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/danonn%20CS2.ME) $11.50 $616 53.61x 2026-11-05 12:51 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $11.50 $616 53.61x 2026-11-05 00:04 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [ETER =GW\_#039;A case hug etc!!!](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ETER%20%3DGW_%23039%3BA%20case%20hug%20etc!!!) $11.50 $616 53.61x 2026-11-04 14:20 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $11.50 $600 52.19x 2026-11-06 22:51 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [michał syn jacka](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/micha%C5%82%20syn%20jacka) $11.50 $600 52.19x 2026-11-06 21:21 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [ruhatorCS2.MEskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ruhatorCS2.MEskins.army) $11.50 $600 52.19x 2026-11-06 17:52 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [tivson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/tivson) $11.50 $600 52.19x 2026-11-06 15:46 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [tivson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/tivson) $11.50 $600 52.19x 2026-11-06 15:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=retro)

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo) Hidden $11.50 $11.55 1.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty) Hidden $11.50 $19.86 1.73x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[FAMAS | Eye of Athena weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena) Hidden $11.50 $6.79 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[XM1014 | Charter weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-charter) [Kacperkuuu skins.army CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kacperkuuu%20skins.army%20CS2.ME) $11.50 $1.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) Hidden $11.50 $0.41 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector) Hidden $11.50 $14.53 1.26x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo) Hidden $11.50 $11.55 1.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector) [Kacperkuuu skins.army CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kacperkuuu%20skins.army%20CS2.ME) $11.50 $14.53 1.26x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $11.50 $0.46 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo) Hidden $11.50 $11.55 1.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $11.50 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $11.50 | 87.45% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $11.50 | 87.77% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $11.50 | 87.83% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $11.50 | 87.79% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $11.50 | 87.91% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $11.50 | 87.52% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $11.50 | 87.91% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $11.50 | 87.68% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $11.50 | 87.90% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $11.50 | 87.97% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $11.50 | 87.48% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $11.50 | 87.19% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $11.50 | 87.31% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $11.50 | 87.37% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $11.50 | 87.76% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $11.50 | 87.81% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $11.50 | 87.76% | 57 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $11.50 | 87.81% | 57 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.6% #ffd700 0.0% epic 0.0% Covert 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.1% red 1.3% classified 36.4% rare 0.9% #d32ce6 3.5% pink 3.4% Legendary 2.7% violet 28.5% grey 4.6% Common 7.7% gray 2.9% #8847ff 3.4% best hit $1,365 (118.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt