---
title: "RISKY JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "RISKY JOKER ($1,365.79) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 50 items with odds, observed 104.13% over 725 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [RISKY JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · RISKY JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky-joker?window=all)

Price · $1,365.79

Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $1,236.04 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 104.13% · 725 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 25 openings · below min

7 days · 111.84% ±14.37 585 openings

30 days · 104.13% ±12.90 725 openings

since tracking started · 104.13% ±12.90 725 openings

37.0% 107.0% 177.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.51% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.23% – 117.03%, 725 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky-joker?window=24h) | 25 | 106.89% ±69.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky-joker?window=7d) | 585 | 111.84% ±14.4 | +2.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky-joker) | 725 | 104.13% ±12.9 | +2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky-joker?window=all) | 725 | 104.13% ±12.9 | +2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 819 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 24 | $9,792 | 33.0% | 48 | 34.1 | 1.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $9,628 | 10.8% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $7,031 | 7.9% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $5,630 | 6.3% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $4,017 | 13.5% | 34 | 34.1 | 1.00× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 24 | $1,607 | 5.4% | 28 | 34.1 | 0.82× |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1,337 | 4.5% | 25 | 34.1 | 0.73× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1,053 | 3.5% | 39 | 34.1 | 1.14× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $797 | 2.7% | 37 | 34.1 | 1.08× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 24 | $637 | 2.1% | 28 | 34.1 | 0.82× |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $603 | 2.0% | 35 | 34.1 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $560 | 0.6% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $484 | 1.6% | 32 | 34.1 | 0.94× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · sunny · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 24 | $266 | 0.9% | 33 | 34.1 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $241 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 24 | $240 | 0.8% | 37 | 34.1 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $237 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $208 | 0.7% | 43 | 34.1 | 1.26× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $162 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $152 | 0.5% | 31 | 34.1 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $150 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $146 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $138 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $133 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $114 | 0.2% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $105 | 0.4% | 32 | 34.1 | 0.94× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $90.45 | 0.3% | 27 | 34.1 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $85.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $80.23 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $75.96 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $75.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $73.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $71.51 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $66.60 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $65.71 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $65.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $64.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $64.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $60.74 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $59.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $58.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $58.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $57.22 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $55.92 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $53.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $53.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $46.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $27.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $21.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $19.60 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/risky-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,397 $9,868 7.06x 2026-11-05 12:02 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,397 $9,868 7.06x 2026-11-05 12:02 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,398 $9,868 7.06x 2026-11-04 20:30 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [★jawaan★](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%98%85jawaan%E2%98%85) $1,398 $9,868 7.06x 2026-11-04 20:24 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [★jawaan★](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%98%85jawaan%E2%98%85) $1,398 $9,868 7.06x 2026-11-04 20:24 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,398 $9,868 7.06x 2026-11-04 19:07 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,398 $9,868 7.06x 2026-11-04 16:39 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [klu5ek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/klu5ek) $1,397 $9,868 7.06x 2026-11-04 14:22 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,397 $9,868 7.06x 2026-11-03 22:21 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,397 $9,868 7.06x 2026-11-03 22:01 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=risky-joker)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Gilathiss](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Gilathiss) $1,371 $90.57 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Gilathiss](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Gilathiss) $1,371 $634 0.46x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,371 $798 0.58x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $1,371 $1,059 0.77x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $1,371 $634 0.46x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,371 $1,607 1.17x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two) Hidden $1,371 $105 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Revolution weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $1,371 $161 0.12x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic) Hidden $1,371 $60.60 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) Hidden $1,371 $7,405 5.40x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $1,366 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1,368 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $1,375 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1,383 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1,382 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $1,384 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $1,394 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1,397 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1,397 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $1,398 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $1,397 | 90.50% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 56.9% legendary 8.3% epic 4.2% red 3.9% sunny 10.4% gold 6.3% rare 5.3% extraordinary 2.1% Immortal 1.0% pink 0.8% uncommon 0.8% best hit $9,868 (7.06x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt