---
title: "RISKY case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "RISKY ($200.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 50 items with odds, observed 88.02% over 2,084 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [RISKY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · RISKY

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky?window=all)

Price · $200.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $175.01 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.02% · 2,084 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.69% ±12.39 331 openings

7 days · 88.47% ±5.21 1,888 openings

30 days · 88.02% ±4.97 2,084 openings

since tracking started · 88.02% ±4.97 2,084 openings

78.5% 91.5% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky?window=24h) | 331 | 91.69% ±12.4 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky?window=7d) | 1,888 | 88.47% ±5.21 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky) | 2,084 | 88.02% ±4.97 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/risky?window=all) | 2,084 | 88.02% ±4.97 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,084 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,792 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $9,628 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 12,500 | $7,031 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,630 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $4,017 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,607 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,337 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 909 | $1,053 | 0.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $797 | 0.7% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.60× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 48 | $637 | 7.6% | 40 | 43.3 | 0.92× |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $603 | 7.6% | 44 | 45.8 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) | 1 in 556 | $560 | 0.6% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $484 | 27.5% | 217 | 207.1 | 1.05× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · sunny · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 24 | $266 | 6.3% | 88 | 86.7 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 323 | $241 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 22 | $240 | 6.3% | 90 | 95.9 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $237 | 0.8% | 0 | 12.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $208 | 6.3% | 125 | 110.7 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $162 | 1.2% | 0 | 26.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $152 | 4.3% | 95 | 102.1 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99 | $150 | 0.9% | 0 | 21.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $146 | 0.9% | 0 | 21.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $138 | 0.9% | 0 | 23.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $133 | 0.9% | 0 | 25.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $114 | 1.4% | 0 | 45.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $105 | 3.4% | 129 | 118.4 | 1.09× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $90.45 | 3.1% | 123 | 125.7 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-factory-new) | 1 in 233 | $85.50 | 0.2% | 0 | 9.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $80.23 | 0.9% | 0 | 39.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $75.96 | 0.6% | 0 | 28.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $75.01 | 0.9% | 0 | 43.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $73.65 | 1.7% | 0 | 82.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $71.51 | 0.6% | 0 | 31.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $66.60 | 1.7% | 0 | 92.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $65.71 | 0.6% | 0 | 35.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $65.16 | 0.6% | 0 | 35.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $64.43 | 1.0% | 0 | 54.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $64.08 | 0.6% | 0 | 33.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $60.74 | 0.5% | 0 | 27.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $59.20 | 0.6% | 0 | 37.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $58.55 | 0.5% | 0 | 28.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $58.20 | 0.6% | 0 | 38.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $57.22 | 0.6% | 0 | 39.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $55.92 | 0.5% | 0 | 30.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $53.73 | 0.5% | 0 | 32.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $53.21 | 0.5% | 0 | 32.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 97 | $46.16 | 0.3% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $27.19 | 0.3% | 0 | 44.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $21.89 | 0.4% | 0 | 60.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $19.60 | 0.4% | 0 | 70.9 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/risky`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) [Gilathiss](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Gilathiss) $200 $6,590 32.95x 2026-11-10 19:54 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $200 $1,662 8.31x 2026-11-04 13:30 UTC

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $200 $1,330 6.65x 2026-11-09 16:20 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [BERKAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BERKAY) $200 $1,054 5.27x 2026-11-08 17:05 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $200 $826 4.13x 2026-11-06 00:13 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [Liszka9](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Liszka9) $200 $824 4.12x 2026-11-04 20:19 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $200 $819 4.10x 2026-11-04 13:30 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $200 $797 3.99x 2026-11-10 19:54 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $200 $782 3.91x 2026-11-07 14:34 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $200 $644 3.22x 2026-11-07 00:42 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=risky)

[AK-47 | Neon Revolution weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution) Hidden $200 $153 0.76x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Nissan Laurel C35cstorm.pl](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Nissan%20Laurel%20C35cstorm.pl) $200 $90.45 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic) Hidden $200 $59.52 0.30x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $200 $484 2.42x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Revolution weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution) Hidden $200 $153 0.76x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC

[AWP | LongDog weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog) [\_quot;S\_quot; KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_quot%3BS_quot%3B%20KING) $200 $102 0.51x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $200 $105 0.52x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir) Hidden $200 $56.23 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [kajacze;k](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kajacze%3Bk) $200 $105 0.52x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir) Hidden $200 $56.23 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $200 | 87.73% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $200 | 87.49% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $200 | 87.57% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $200 | 87.49% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $200 | 87.57% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $200 | 87.94% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $200 | 88.00% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $200 | 87.58% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $200 | 88.00% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $200 | 87.70% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $200 | 87.58% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $200 | 87.85% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $200 | 87.78% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $200 | 87.97% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $200 | 87.78% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $200 | 87.63% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $200 | 88.01% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $200 | 87.63% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $200 | 87.87% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $200 | 88.01% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $200 | 87.60% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $200 | 87.59% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $200 | 87.60% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $200 | 87.51% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 55.3% legendary 0.1% epic 0.1% red 3.5% sunny 13.0% gold 8.3% rare 10.1% extraordinary 2.2% Immortal 1.8% pink 2.1% uncommon 3.4% best hit $6,590 (32.95x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt