--- title: "RITUAL JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "RITUAL JOKER ($32.53) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.49% from 9 items with odds, observed 85.10% over 3,328 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T20:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [RITUAL JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · RITUAL JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual-joker?window=all) Price · $32.53 Advertised RTP · 87.49% · EV $28.46 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.10% · 3,328 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74.51% ±11.98 329 openings 7 days · 85.65% ±4.00 2,831 openings 30 days · 85.10% ±3.70 3,328 openings since tracking started · 85.10% ±3.70 3,328 openings 62.0% 76.3% 90.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual-joker?window=24h) | 329 | 74.51% ±12.0 | −2.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual-joker?window=7d) | 2,831 | 85.65% ±4.00 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual-joker) | 3,328 | 85.10% ±3.70 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual-joker?window=all) | 3,328 | 85.10% ±3.70 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,339 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 11.1% | $115 | 45.0% | 349 | 371.0 | 0.94× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 11.1% | $57.05 | 22.3% | 371 | 371.0 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 11.1% | $43.39 | 16.9% | 359 | 371.0 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 11.1% | $16.80 | 6.6% | 395 | 371.0 | 1.06× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 11.1% | $11.45 | 4.5% | 382 | 371.0 | 1.03× | | [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 11.1% | $7.02 | 2.7% | 361 | 371.0 | 0.97× | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 11.1% | $4.56 | 1.8% | 382 | 371.0 | 1.03× | | [Sticker \| High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) | 11.1% | $0.64 | 0.2% | 401 | 371.0 | 1.08× | | [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) | 11.1% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 339 | 371.0 | 0.91× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/ritual-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=ritual-joker) [SG 553 | Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) Hidden $31.10 $4.50 0.14x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) Hidden $31.10 $14.43 0.46x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) [CS2.ME @bandit SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CS2.ME%20%40bandit%20SKINS) $31.10 $50.86 1.64x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) Hidden $31.10 $11.04 0.35x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) Hidden $31.10 $11.04 0.35x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC [MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) [CS2.ME @bandit SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CS2.ME%20%40bandit%20SKINS) $31.10 $7.02 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) Hidden $31.10 $44.54 1.43x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC [MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) Hidden $31.10 $7.02 0.23x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) [CS2.ME @bandit SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CS2.ME%20%40bandit%20SKINS) $31.10 $14.43 0.46x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC [Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) Hidden $31.10 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $32.53 | 87.49% | 9 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $32.06 | 87.49% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $31.49 | 87.49% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $30.23 | 87.50% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $31.88 | 87.50% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $30.23 | 87.50% | 9 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $30.31 | 87.51% | 9 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $31.15 | 87.51% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $30.95 | 87.50% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $31.79 | 87.50% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $32.10 | 86.66% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $31.79 | 87.50% | 9 | | 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $32.05 | 87.49% | 9 | | 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $32.42 | 87.49% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $31.87 | 87.49% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 33.3% classified 22.2% pink 22.2% blue 11.1% grey 11.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.49 on average: an expected loss of $12.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt