--- title: "RITUAL case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "RITUAL ($0.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.49% from 9 items with odds, observed 83.03% over 127K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual rendered: 2026-11-11T15:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [RITUAL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · RITUAL A case on Casehug (KINDA RISKY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual?window=all) Price · $0.50 Advertised RTP · 87.49% · EV $0.44 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.03% · 127K openings, odds method Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 51.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 48.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.82% ±3.51 15.5K openings 7 days · 83.37% ±1.32 106K openings 30 days · 83.03% ±1.20 127K openings since tracking started · 83.03% ±1.20 127K openings 81.0% 86.0% 91.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.40% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.83% – 84.24%, 126,943 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual?window=24h) | 15.5K | 86.82% ±3.51 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual?window=7d) | 106K | 83.37% ±1.32 | −7.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual) | 127K | 83.03% ±1.20 | −8.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ritual?window=all) | 127K | 83.03% ±1.20 | −8.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 127K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $112 | 0.8% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $50.86 | 0.8% | 4 | 8.9 | 0.45× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $44.54 | 1.0% | 8 | 12.7 | 0.63× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $14.43 | 1.0% | 28 | 38.2 | 0.73× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $11.04 | 1.3% | 46 | 63.6 | 0.72× | | [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $7.02 | 3.2% | 206 | 254.6 | 0.81× | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $4.50 | 7.2% | 760 | 891.1 | 0.85× | | [Sticker \| High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) | 50.1% | $0.72 | 82.5% | 70,169 | 63812.0 | 1.10× | | [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) | 48.9% | $0.02 | 2.2% | 56,071 | 62208.1 | 0.90× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/ritual`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [Dink Donk](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Dink%20Donk) $0.50 $115 230.4x 2026-11-10 22:44 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) Hidden $0.50 $57.05 114.1x 2026-11-10 20:43 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) [MiTy1010](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/MiTy1010) $0.50 $56.18 112.4x 2026-11-06 16:41 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) Hidden $0.50 $51.85 103.7x 2026-11-05 14:11 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) [imichalz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/imichalz) $0.50 $50.03 100.1x 2026-11-09 17:32 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 $47.21 94.42x 2026-11-04 11:49 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 $47.21 94.42x 2026-11-03 14:45 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) [Jasmine](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Jasmine) $0.50 $45.55 91.10x 2026-11-07 00:16 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) Hidden $0.50 $44.54 89.08x 2026-11-08 01:27 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) [????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $0.50 $44.26 88.52x 2026-11-10 20:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=ritual) [Sticker | High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) [sldafxas:L!](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/sldafxas%3AL!) $0.50 $0.72 1.44x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) [13yo](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/13yo) $0.50 $0.02 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) [adversis](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/adversis) $0.50 $0.02 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [Sticker | High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) [damian.turlej0917](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/damian.turlej0917) $0.50 $0.72 1.44x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) [adversis](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/adversis) $0.50 $0.02 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) [damian.turlej0917](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/damian.turlej0917) $0.50 $0.02 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) Hidden $0.50 $0.02 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) Hidden $0.50 $0.02 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) [Dr4kU\_lt;\_lt;C.B\_gt;\_gt;](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Dr4kU_lt%3B_lt%3BC.B_gt%3B_gt%3B) $0.50 $0.02 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) [Mikoq\_77f -skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Mikoq_77f%20-skins.army) $0.50 $0.02 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $0.50 | 87.49% | 9 | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.50 | 87.50% | 9 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $0.50 | 87.70% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $0.50 | 88.69% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $0.50 | 88.06% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $0.50 | 88.05% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.50 | 88.27% | 9 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $0.50 | 88.02% | 9 | | 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $0.50 | 87.79% | 9 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $0.50 | 90.86% | 9 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $0.50 | 90.85% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.50 | 88.40% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $0.50 | 88.00% | 9 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $0.50 | 87.67% | 9 | | 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.50 | 87.73% | 9 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $0.50 | 87.86% | 9 | | 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $0.50 | 88.07% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.50 | 88.46% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 0.1% pink 0.9% blue 50.1% grey 48.9% best hit $115 (230.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.49 on average: an expected loss of $12.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt