---
title: "ROYAL JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "ROYAL JOKER ($2,296.29) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 20 items with odds, observed 89.51% over 766 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ROYAL JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ROYAL JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal-joker?window=all)

Price · $2,296.29

Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $2,078.14 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.51% · 766 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 57 openings · below min

7 days · 84.31% ±9.94 582 openings

30 days · 89.51% ±8.66 766 openings

since tracking started · 89.51% ±8.66 766 openings

56.5% 89.0% 121.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal-joker?window=24h) | 57 | 88.83% ±31.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal-joker?window=7d) | 582 | 84.31% ±9.94 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal-joker) | 766 | 89.51% ±8.66 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal-joker?window=all) | 766 | 89.51% ±8.66 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 769 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $9,562 | 27.1% | 46 | 45.2 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $8,909 | 25.2% | 42 | 45.2 | 0.93× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $4,069 | 11.5% | 44 | 45.2 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2,522 | 7.1% | 46 | 45.2 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1,971 | 5.6% | 45 | 45.2 | 0.99× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1,593 | 4.5% | 43 | 45.2 | 0.95× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1,470 | 4.2% | 39 | 45.2 | 0.86× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $1,441 | 2.0% | 0 | 22.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1,345 | 3.8% | 42 | 45.2 | 0.93× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $1,131 | 1.6% | 0 | 22.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $915 | 1.3% | 0 | 22.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $798 | 1.1% | 0 | 22.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $612 | 1.7% | 47 | 45.2 | 1.04× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $211 | 0.6% | 49 | 45.2 | 1.08× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $207 | 0.3% | 0 | 22.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $201 | 0.6% | 58 | 45.2 | 1.28× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $197 | 0.6% | 42 | 45.2 | 0.93× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $184 | 0.3% | 0 | 22.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $175 | 0.5% | 37 | 45.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $155 | 0.4% | 39 | 45.2 | 0.86× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/royal-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $2,323 $9,684 4.17x 2026-11-09 12:19 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $2,323 $9,684 4.17x 2026-11-09 11:08 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $2,321 $9,639 4.15x 2026-11-07 13:17 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [XAK1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XAK1) $2,321 $9,639 4.15x 2026-11-07 12:56 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $2,321 $9,639 4.15x 2026-11-07 12:29 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [CRISTIANO RONALDO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CRISTIANO%20RONALDO) $2,321 $9,639 4.15x 2026-11-07 01:29 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $2,321 $9,639 4.15x 2026-11-07 01:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [CRISTIANO RONALDO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CRISTIANO%20RONALDO) $2,321 $9,639 4.15x 2026-11-07 01:22 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $2,317 $9,639 4.16x 2026-11-05 17:41 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $2,317 $9,639 4.16x 2026-11-05 15:52 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=royal-joker)

[★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,302 $1,538 0.67x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $2,302 $1,538 0.67x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) Hidden $2,296 $4,069 1.77x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $2,296 $8,909 3.88x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) Hidden $2,296 $211 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $2,296 $9,562 4.16x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore) Hidden $2,296 $965 0.42x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $2,296 $175 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade) [WeeFX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WeeFX) $2,296 $195 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore) Hidden $2,296 $965 0.42x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $2,296 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2,297 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2,302 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $2,324 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2,323 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $2,321 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $2,306 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $2,321 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $2,314 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2,306 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $2,317 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2,317 | 90.20% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2,305 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $2,307 | 90.50% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 5.9% covert 58.8% extraordinary 14.7% legendary 5.9% epic 8.8% rare 5.9% best hit $9,684 (4.17x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt