---
title: "ROYAL case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ROYAL ($1,000.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 20 items with odds, observed 90.32% over 2,065 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [ROYAL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · ROYAL

A case on Casehug (PREMIUM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal?window=all)

Price · $1,000.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $875.03 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.32% · 2,065 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.00% ±14.15 189 openings

7 days · 89.42% ±4.98 1,516 openings

30 days · 90.32% ±4.26 2,065 openings

since tracking started · 90.32% ±4.26 2,065 openings

78.0% 93.0% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal?window=24h) | 189 | 93.00% ±14.2 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal?window=7d) | 1,516 | 89.42% ±4.98 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal) | 2,065 | 90.32% ±4.26 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/royal?window=all) | 2,065 | 90.32% ±4.26 | +1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,065 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 417 | $9,562 | 2.6% | 8 | 5.0 | 1.61× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $8,950 | 2.6% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) | 1 in 182 | $4,137 | 2.6% | 13 | 11.4 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $2,547 | 18.6% | 145 | 132.2 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1,971 | 12.6% | 153 | 115.6 | 1.32× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1,524 | 12.6% | 122 | 149.5 | 0.82× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1,461 | 10.2% | 103 | 126.6 | 0.81× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $1,441 | 3.7% | 0 | 46.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1,334 | 10.2% | 128 | 138.8 | 0.92× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $1,138 | 4.2% | 0 | 66.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $825 | 2.8% | 0 | 62.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $797 | 2.5% | 0 | 57.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $610 | 3.7% | 123 | 108.6 | 1.13× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $220 | 2.0% | 178 | 163.3 | 1.09× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $204 | 1.9% | 176 | 168.3 | 1.05× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $201 | 1.9% | 191 | 169.1 | 1.13× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $196 | 0.9% | 0 | 82.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $184 | 0.9% | 0 | 90.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $175 | 1.7% | 141 | 178.8 | 0.79× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $155 | 1.6% | 180 | 186.3 | 0.97× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/royal`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $9,684 9.68x 2026-11-09 15:45 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [hossy](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/hossy) $1,000 $9,637 9.64x 2026-11-03 22:08 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [hossy](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/hossy) $1,000 $9,637 9.64x 2026-11-03 21:43 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $9,562 9.56x 2026-11-11 09:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [XD](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XD) $1,000 $9,562 9.56x 2026-11-11 01:24 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [♛SicarioBANGBANG♛CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%99%9BSicarioBANGBANG%E2%99%9BCS2.ME) $1,000 $9,562 9.56x 2026-11-08 11:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [LYSY\_HYPERCS2.MESKINS.ARMY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/LYSY_HYPERCS2.MESKINS.ARMY) $1,000 $9,562 9.56x 2026-11-07 20:02 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $9,461 9.46x 2026-11-06 19:49 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,000 $9,103 9.10x 2026-11-06 00:02 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,000 $9,103 9.10x 2026-11-05 19:26 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=royal)

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore) [fscN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/fscN) $1,000 $981 0.98x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[★ Kukri Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,000 $155 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $201 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,000 $1,334 1.33x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) [N:OW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/N%3AOW) $1,000 $2,547 2.55x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) Hidden $1,000 $220 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) [Jamasza](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Jamasza) $1,000 $204 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade) Hidden $1,000 $190 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,000 $2,547 2.55x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) [ChrasťoušekS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Chras%C5%A5ou%C5%A1ekS) $1,000 $1,524 1.52x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1,000 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1,000 | 87.77% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1,000 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1,000 | 87.41% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $1,000 | 87.30% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1,000 | 87.59% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $1,000 | 87.57% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $1,000 | 87.59% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1,000 | 87.34% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $1,000 | 87.60% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $1,000 | 87.19% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1,000 | 87.60% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1,000 | 87.57% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $1,000 | 87.42% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1,000 | 87.74% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $1,000 | 87.59% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $1,000 | 87.33% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1,000 | 87.48% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.2% covert 64.8% extraordinary 12.2% legendary 5.6% epic 9.3% rare 7.9% best hit $9,684 (9.68x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt