---
title: "SAVAGE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "SAVAGE JOKER ($277.89) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 52 items with odds, observed 86.12% over 96 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [SAVAGE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · SAVAGE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage-joker?window=all)

Price · $277.89

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $243.15 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.12% · 96 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 93 openings · below min

30 days · 96 openings · below min

since tracking started · 96 openings · below min

-0.5% 131.0% 262.5%

**Small sample.** 96 openings and 17.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage-joker?window=24h) | 2 | 128.16% ±133.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage-joker?window=7d) | 93 | 88.35% ±19.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage-joker) | 96 | 86.12% ±19.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage-joker?window=all) | 96 | 86.12% ±19.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 114 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1,123 | 18.5% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.66× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $797 | 13.1% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.54× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $580 | 9.5% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.66× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $540 | 4.4% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $481 | 7.9% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.66× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $420 | 6.9% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.66× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $406 | 3.3% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $293 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $284 | 4.7% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $282 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $256 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $247 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $241 | 4.0% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $176 | 2.9% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.32× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $175 | 2.9% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.32× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $166 | 2.7% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.32× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $156 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $156 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $148 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $146 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $143 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $137 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $126 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $121 | 2.0% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.10× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $119 | 2.0% | 9 | 4.6 | 1.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $74.10 | 1.2% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $68.38 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $65.44 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $54.96 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $53.92 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $48.67 | 0.8% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.66× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $40.42 | 0.7% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.88× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $16.75 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $14.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $14.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $8.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $7.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $6.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $6.07 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $5.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $5.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $5.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $4.70 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $4.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $4.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $3.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $3.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $3.60 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $3.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $3.53 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $3.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $3.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/savage-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $280 $1,138 4.06x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $278 $1,130 4.07x 2026-11-08 14:40 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $278 $1,111 3.99x 2026-11-06 21:03 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $274 $824 3.01x 2026-11-05 23:13 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $276 $824 2.99x 2026-11-05 08:00 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $280 $816 2.91x 2026-11-09 22:01 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [SneakPeak](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SneakPeak) $279 $797 2.85x 2026-11-10 19:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $279 $797 2.85x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $276 $787 2.85x 2026-11-09 21:41 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $276 $787 2.85x 2026-11-08 00:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=savage-joker)

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) [????????????skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3Fskins.army) $279 $121 0.43x 2026-11-11 10:11 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [Adu$$$](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Adu%24%24%24) $279 $595 2.13x 2026-11-10 21:03 UTC

[M4A4 | The Emperor weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor) Hidden $279 $128 0.46x 2026-11-10 19:53 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $279 $169 0.60x 2026-11-10 19:53 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory) Hidden $279 $8.09 0.03x 2026-11-10 19:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [SneakPeak](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SneakPeak) $279 $797 2.85x 2026-11-10 19:53 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) Hidden $279 $175 0.63x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child) Hidden $279 $6.32 0.02x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $279 $797 2.85x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [roo\_hatch](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/roo_hatch) $279 $482 1.72x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $278 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $279 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $280 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $276 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $278 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $276 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $278 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $274 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $276 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $276 | 87.50% | 52 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 64.0% #ffd700 4.0% red 4.0% classified 5.6% Covert 4.0% gold 4.0% Legendary 2.4% pink 11.2% Classified 0.8% best hit $1,138 (4.06x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt