---
title: "SAVAGE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SAVAGE ($25.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 52 items with odds, observed 87.03% over 5,551 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [SAVAGE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · SAVAGE

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage?window=all)

Price · $25.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $21.87 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.03% · 5,551 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.31% ±12.72 787 openings

7 days · 89.33% ±5.24 4,659 openings

30 days · 87.03% ±4.78 5,551 openings

since tracking started · 87.03% ±4.78 5,551 openings

79.0% 92.3% 105.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage?window=24h) | 787 | 92.31% ±12.7 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage?window=7d) | 4,659 | 89.33% ±5.24 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage) | 5,551 | 87.03% ±4.78 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savage?window=all) | 5,551 | 87.03% ±4.78 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,566 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 4,545 | $1,123 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $798 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,381 | $573 | 1.1% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $540 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,961 | $470 | 1.1% | 6 | 2.8 | 2.11× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,941 | $406 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,639 | $399 | 1.1% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $292 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 1,190 | $287 | 1.1% | 9 | 4.7 | 1.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $275 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $259 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $245 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $241 | 1.1% | 15 | 5.6 | 2.69× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 709 | $170 | 1.1% | 4 | 7.8 | 0.51× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 690 | $165 | 1.1% | 3 | 8.1 | 0.37× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 685 | $163 | 1.1% | 4 | 8.1 | 0.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,326 | $152 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,613 | $148 | 0.4% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 2,174 | $147 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 1,389 | $138 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $136 | 0.4% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,408 | $135 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,786 | $133 | 0.3% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 505 | $120 | 1.1% | 17 | 11.0 | 1.54× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $119 | 1.1% | 12 | 11.1 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $79.09 | 16.1% | 227 | 248.2 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $71.42 | 7.0% | 0 | 119.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $70.07 | 7.1% | 0 | 123.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $54.22 | 5.8% | 0 | 129.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $49.95 | 6.2% | 0 | 152.2 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $47.02 | 12.0% | 314 | 310.5 | 1.01× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $43.27 | 12.0% | 334 | 337.4 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $16.52 | 0.7% | 0 | 49.8 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) | 1 in 134 | $14.37 | 0.5% | 0 | 41.6 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) | 1 in 131 | $14.18 | 0.5% | 0 | 42.6 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $8.80 | 0.6% | 0 | 79.4 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $7.46 | 0.9% | 0 | 151.5 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $6.20 | 0.7% | 0 | 135.0 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $6.07 | 0.7% | 0 | 139.6 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $5.95 | 1.0% | 0 | 207.9 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $5.39 | 1.1% | 0 | 238.8 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $5.28 | 1.1% | 0 | 245.7 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $5.06 | 0.7% | 0 | 172.3 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $3.99 | 0.8% | 0 | 251.1 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $3.87 | 0.8% | 0 | 250.7 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $3.78 | 0.8% | 0 | 269.7 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $3.71 | 0.8% | 0 | 265.9 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.60 | 0.8% | 0 | 277.4 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $3.49 | 0.9% | 0 | 301.6 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $3.49 | 0.9% | 0 | 302.8 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $3.44 | 0.9% | 0 | 307.8 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $3.38 | 0.9% | 0 | 316.8 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/savage`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $25.00 $1,140 45.59x 2026-11-09 07:07 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $824 32.97x 2026-11-04 18:24 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [jamesbond007](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/jamesbond007) $25.00 $797 31.90x 2026-11-10 18:33 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $595 23.80x 2026-11-09 22:03 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=savage)

[UMP-45 | Wild Child weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child) Hidden $25.00 $4.33 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory) Hidden $25.00 $6.46 0.26x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child) [betonnn.CS2.me](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/betonnn.CS2.me) $25.00 $4.33 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC

[MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $47.02 1.88x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory) Hidden $25.00 $6.46 0.26x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child) [betonnn.CS2.me](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/betonnn.CS2.me) $25.00 $4.33 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child) Hidden $25.00 $4.33 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child) Hidden $25.00 $4.33 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child) [betonnn.CS2.me](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/betonnn.CS2.me) $25.00 $4.33 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Olympus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus) Hidden $25.00 $4.33 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $25.00 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $25.00 | 87.77% | 52 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $25.00 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $25.00 | 87.77% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $25.00 | 87.68% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $25.00 | 86.99% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $25.00 | 87.34% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $25.00 | 87.10% | 52 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $25.00 | 87.38% | 52 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $25.00 | 87.43% | 52 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $25.00 | 87.03% | 52 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $25.00 | 87.59% | 52 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $25.00 | 87.58% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $25.00 | 87.14% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $25.00 | 87.26% | 52 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $25.00 | 87.93% | 52 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 20.7% #ffd700 0.1% classified 5.9% red 0.1% Covert 0.2% gold 6.1% Legendary 6.7% pink 58.8% Classified 1.4% best hit $1,140 (45.59x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt