---
title: "SAVANNA JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "SAVANNA JOKER ($20.76) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 106 items with odds, observed 81.29% over 4,956 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savanna-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T01:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [SAVANNA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savanna-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · SAVANNA JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savanna-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savanna-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savanna-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savanna-joker?window=all)

Price · $20.76

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $18.16 from 106 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.29% · 4,956 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 73.64% ±14.16 620 openings

7 days · 81.92% ±5.60 3,985 openings

30 days · 81.29% ±5.01 4,956 openings

since tracking started · 81.29% ±5.01 4,956 openings

59.0% 73.8% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.59% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.28% – 86.30%, 4,956 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savanna-joker?window=24h) | 620 | 73.64% ±14.2 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savanna-joker?window=7d) | 3,985 | 81.92% ±5.60 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savanna-joker) | 4,956 | 81.29% ±5.01 | −2.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/savanna-joker?window=all) | 4,956 | 81.29% ±5.01 | −2.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 106 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,960 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 140 | $275 | 10.8% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 140 | $154 | 6.1% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140 | $148 | 5.8% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 140 | $138 | 5.4% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 140 | $136 | 5.3% | 0 | 35.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $122 | 8.0% | 0 | 59.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $81.46 | 5.3% | 0 | 59.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $79.09 | 5.2% | 0 | 59.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140 | $58.81 | 2.3% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 140 | $58.34 | 2.3% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 140 | $55.86 | 2.2% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 140 | $53.85 | 2.1% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 140 | $51.26 | 2.0% | 0 | 35.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $36.15 | 1.8% | 0 | 44.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $35.97 | 1.8% | 0 | 44.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $35.83 | 1.8% | 0 | 44.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $34.15 | 1.7% | 0 | 44.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $32.02 | 1.6% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $31.38 | 1.5% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $31.33 | 1.5% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $23.06 | 1.1% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $22.66 | 1.1% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $22.47 | 1.1% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $20.72 | 1.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $20.05 | 1.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $19.98 | 1.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $19.74 | 1.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $19.30 | 0.9% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $18.02 | 0.9% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $14.08 | 0.7% | 0 | 44.2 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $13.94 | 0.7% | 0 | 44.2 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $13.34 | 0.7% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $13.16 | 0.6% | 0 | 44.2 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $13.11 | 0.6% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $13.02 | 0.6% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $10.52 | 0.5% | 0 | 44.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $10.11 | 0.5% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $9.86 | 0.5% | 0 | 44.2 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $9.61 | 0.5% | 0 | 44.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $9.25 | 0.5% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $9.13 | 0.4% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $8.95 | 0.4% | 0 | 44.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $8.18 | 0.4% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $8.06 | 0.4% | 0 | 44.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 140 | $7.57 | 0.3% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $6.18 | 0.3% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $6.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $6.04 | 0.3% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $5.77 | 0.3% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $5.42 | 0.3% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $5.32 | 0.3% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $5.23 | 0.3% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $5.16 | 0.3% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 140 | $4.90 | 0.2% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $4.65 | 0.2% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $4.59 | 0.2% | 0 | 44.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $4.53 | 0.2% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $4.51 | 0.2% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $4.48 | 0.2% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $4.33 | 0.2% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $4.24 | 0.2% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $4.18 | 0.2% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $4.16 | 0.2% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $3.98 | 0.2% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $3.90 | 0.2% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140 | $3.73 | 0.1% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $3.17 | 0.2% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $2.95 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $2.75 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $2.57 | 0.2% | 0 | 59.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 140 | $2.54 | 0.1% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 140 | $2.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 35.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 140 | $2.48 | 0.1% | 0 | 35.5 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $2.42 | 0.5% | 175 | 177.2 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Guerrilla (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $2.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $1.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $1.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $1.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 59.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.61 | 0.3% | 185 | 177.2 | 1.04× |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $1.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 59.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-factory-new) | 1 in 140 | $1.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $1.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $1.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Guerrilla (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $0.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 140 | $0.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Guerrilla (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $0.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $0.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $0.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 140 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 35.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 140 | $0.63 | 0.0% | 0 | 35.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Guerrilla (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $0.63 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140 | $0.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $0.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $0.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $0.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $0.37 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $0.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-well-worn) | 1 in 140 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 194 | 177.2 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 1 in 140 | $0.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 35.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 140 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 35.5 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/savanna-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=savanna-joker)

[PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream) Hidden $20.55 $0.47 0.02x 2026-11-12 01:11 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon) Hidden $20.55 $13.21 0.64x 2026-11-12 01:11 UTC

[FAMAS | Eye of Athena weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena) [Matekwiertara](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Matekwiertara) $20.55 $7.10 0.35x 2026-11-12 01:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.55 $0.24 0.01x 2026-11-12 01:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) Hidden $20.55 $91.53 4.45x 2026-11-12 01:10 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup) [Matekwiertara](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Matekwiertara) $20.55 $26.08 1.27x 2026-11-12 01:10 UTC

[P250 | Epicenter weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter) Hidden $20.55 $6.31 0.31x 2026-11-12 01:10 UTC

[MP7 | Smoking Kills weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills) Hidden $20.55 $8.10 0.39x 2026-11-12 01:10 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback) [Matekwiertara](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Matekwiertara) $20.55 $1.50 0.07x 2026-11-12 01:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.55 $0.24 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $20.76 | 87.50% | 106 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $20.84 | 87.52% | 106 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $20.99 | 87.48% | 106 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $20.84 | 87.52% | 106 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $20.99 | 87.48% | 106 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $20.90 | 87.50% | 106 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $20.99 | 87.51% | 106 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $21.15 | 87.52% | 106 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $21.10 | 87.51% | 106 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $21.09 | 87.51% | 106 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $20.87 | 87.51% | 106 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $21.01 | 87.51% | 106 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $21.09 | 87.51% | 106 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $21.01 | 87.51% | 106 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $21.01 | 87.49% | 106 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $20.87 | 87.51% | 106 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $20.83 | 87.51% | 106 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $20.88 | 87.48% | 106 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $20.91 | 87.51% | 106 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $20.83 | 87.57% | 106 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $20.91 | 87.51% | 106 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $21.08 | 87.50% | 106 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $20.97 | 87.50% | 106 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 8.8% red 1.9% pink 12.5% restricted 23.7% classified 13.4% violet 3.6% Legendary 3.6% uncommon 3.6% #8847ff 7.0% #d32ce6 1.8% Classified 0.9% Mythical 1.4% blue 9.6% Rare 0.7% #4b69ff 2.3% mil spec 0.9% industrial 3.6% common 0.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt