---
title: "SHADOW DAGGERS JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "SHADOW DAGGERS JOKER ($100.17) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 68 items with odds, observed 87.69% over 272 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [SHADOW DAGGERS JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · SHADOW DAGGERS JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers-joker?window=all)

Price · $100.17

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $87.65 from 68 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.69% · 272 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 46 openings · below min

7 days · 87.31% ±10.32 259 openings

30 days · 87.69% ±10.08 272 openings

since tracking started · 87.69% ±10.08 272 openings

75.0% 100.0% 125.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers-joker?window=24h) | 46 | 99.93% ±24.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers-joker?window=7d) | 259 | 87.31% ±10.3 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers-joker) | 272 | 87.69% ±10.1 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers-joker?window=all) | 272 | 87.69% ±10.1 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 285 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $520 | 11.9% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $307 | 7.0% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $175 | 8.0% | 16 | 11.4 | 1.40× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $164 | 7.5% | 15 | 11.4 | 1.32× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $149 | 2.3% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $146 | 2.2% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $144 | 2.2% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $140 | 2.1% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $137 | 3.1% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $114 | 5.2% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.88× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $111 | 2.5% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $109 | 5.0% | 8 | 11.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $104 | 1.2% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $90.46 | 4.1% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.96× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $87.89 | 4.0% | 9 | 11.4 | 0.79× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $86.95 | 2.0% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $84.34 | 1.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $78.20 | 1.2% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $77.05 | 1.2% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $76.41 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $75.18 | 1.7% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $71.37 | 1.6% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $70.12 | 1.1% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $68.70 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $68.38 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $66.45 | 1.0% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $64.37 | 1.0% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $63.74 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $61.90 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $61.46 | 0.9% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $61.29 | 1.4% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $60.74 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $60.27 | 0.9% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $59.32 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $59.20 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $55.52 | 1.3% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $53.21 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $49.40 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $48.87 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $48.59 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $47.64 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $47.05 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $46.66 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $46.60 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $44.56 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $36.22 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $35.66 | 0.5% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $25.37 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $23.25 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $23.04 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $22.22 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $21.44 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $14.44 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $14.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $13.44 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $11.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $11.04 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $10.60 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $9.78 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $7.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $5.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $5.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $5.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $4.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $3.00 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $1.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $1.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $1.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/shadow-daggers-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=shadow-daggers-joker)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet) Hidden $100 $65.35 0.65x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill) [愛](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E6%84%9B) $100 $413 4.12x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC

[P90 | Trigon weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon) Hidden $100 $11.61 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $100 $90.46 0.90x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) [sztamaxyz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/sztamaxyz) $100 $87.89 0.88x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand) [\_quot;S\_quot; KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_quot%3BS_quot%3B%20KING) $100 $63.95 0.64x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter) Hidden $100 $124 1.24x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Glock-18 | Neo-Noir weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir) Hidden $100 $48.19 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate) Hidden $100 $58.82 0.59x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [liv](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/liv) $100 $114 1.14x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $100 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $98.50 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $97.68 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $98.03 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $98.50 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $100 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $101 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $101 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $101 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $101 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $101 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $103 | 87.50% | 68 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 53.3% Covert 8.0% red 2.3% Immortal 3.3% classified 11.1% sunny 2.7% gold 5.0% Ancient 1.3% pink 3.2% Legendary 3.1% Classified 2.6% Mythical 2.4% uncommon 0.8% violet 0.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt