---
title: "SHADOW DAGGERS case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "SHADOW DAGGERS ($62.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 68 items with odds, observed 89.06% over 1,722 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [SHADOW DAGGERS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · SHADOW DAGGERS

A case on Casehug (CS2 WEAPONS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers?window=all)

Price · $62.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $54.69 from 68 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.06% · 1,722 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.18% ±13.48 171 openings

7 days · 90.49% ±4.70 1,417 openings

30 days · 89.06% ±4.29 1,722 openings

since tracking started · 89.06% ±4.29 1,722 openings

78.0% 92.3% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers?window=24h) | 171 | 92.18% ±13.5 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers?window=7d) | 1,417 | 90.49% ±4.70 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers) | 1,722 | 89.06% ±4.29 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shadow-daggers?window=all) | 1,722 | 89.06% ±4.29 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,722 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $508 | 1.9% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 189 | $310 | 3.0% | 0 | 9.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $174 | 17.5% | 40 | 94.5 | 0.42× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $154 | 1.6% | 0 | 9.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $152 | 5.0% | 42 | 31.0 | 1.36× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 270 | $148 | 1.0% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $138 | 1.7% | 0 | 11.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $137 | 2.3% | 0 | 15.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $136 | 1.7% | 0 | 12.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $119 | 5.0% | 50 | 39.6 | 1.26× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $113 | 2.7% | 0 | 22.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $108 | 5.0% | 64 | 43.6 | 1.47× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 238 | $104 | 0.8% | 0 | 7.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $90.57 | 3.7% | 42 | 38.2 | 1.10× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $86.95 | 1.7% | 0 | 18.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $86.04 | 3.7% | 47 | 40.1 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 196 | $83.98 | 0.8% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $81.14 | 1.3% | 0 | 15.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $78.20 | 0.9% | 0 | 10.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $75.93 | 1.6% | 0 | 19.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 476 | $74.94 | 0.3% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $74.50 | 2.0% | 0 | 25.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $72.90 | 1.1% | 0 | 14.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $71.42 | 0.9% | 0 | 12.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $70.07 | 0.9% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $69.43 | 0.9% | 0 | 12.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $67.12 | 1.6% | 0 | 22.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $65.01 | 0.9% | 0 | 12.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $64.60 | 1.2% | 0 | 18.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 101 | $61.90 | 1.1% | 0 | 17.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $60.10 | 1.4% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $59.91 | 1.1% | 0 | 16.5 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $59.76 | 0.8% | 0 | 12.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $59.69 | 1.2% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $55.63 | 2.1% | 0 | 35.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $54.77 | 1.1% | 0 | 19.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 86 | $52.30 | 1.1% | 0 | 20.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $50.63 | 1.1% | 0 | 21.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $48.87 | 1.3% | 0 | 24.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $48.70 | 1.2% | 0 | 22.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $48.52 | 1.3% | 0 | 24.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $47.02 | 0.8% | 0 | 16.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 98 | $45.75 | 0.9% | 0 | 17.6 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $45.03 | 0.9% | 0 | 18.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $44.98 | 1.1% | 0 | 23.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $37.90 | 1.2% | 0 | 29.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 147 | $35.83 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $26.42 | 1.6% | 0 | 57.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $23.06 | 0.5% | 0 | 21.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $22.66 | 0.5% | 0 | 22.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $22.47 | 0.5% | 0 | 22.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 127 | $21.31 | 0.3% | 0 | 13.6 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $14.27 | 0.4% | 0 | 28.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $14.21 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $12.70 | 0.4% | 0 | 28.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $11.10 | 0.4% | 0 | 33.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $10.69 | 0.4% | 0 | 35.8 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $10.69 | 0.5% | 0 | 42.9 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $10.53 | 0.5% | 0 | 43.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $7.60 | 0.2% | 0 | 22.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $5.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 9.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $5.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 36.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $5.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 39.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $4.88 | 0.2% | 0 | 42.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $3.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 21.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $1.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 73.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 73.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $1.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 83.9 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/shadow-daggers`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=shadow-daggers)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) [クレツィク CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E3%82%AF%E3%83%AC%E3%83%84%E3%82%A3%E3%82%AF%20%20CS2.ME) $62.50 $86.04 1.38x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) [秋善 CS2.M](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E7%A7%8B%E5%96%84%20CS2.M) $62.50 $1.57 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [♛ ベレス ♛skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%99%9B%20%E3%83%99%E3%83%AC%E3%82%B9%20%E2%99%9Bskins.army) $62.50 $90.57 1.45x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus) Hidden $62.50 $6.05 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill) Hidden $62.50 $364 5.83x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) Hidden $62.50 $1.57 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) [dzs4z0n](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/dzs4z0n) $62.50 $108 1.73x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC

[AWP | Elite Build weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build) Hidden $62.50 $12.74 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) Hidden $62.50 $1.55 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate) Hidden $62.50 $52.98 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $62.50 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $62.50 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $62.50 | 87.64% | 68 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $62.50 | 87.63% | 68 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $62.50 | 87.32% | 68 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $62.50 | 87.40% | 68 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $62.50 | 87.54% | 68 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $62.50 | 87.39% | 68 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $62.50 | 87.54% | 68 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $62.50 | 87.59% | 68 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $62.50 | 87.33% | 68 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $62.50 | 87.33% | 68 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $62.50 | 87.70% | 68 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $62.50 | 87.56% | 68 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $62.50 | 87.51% | 68 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $62.50 | 87.60% | 68 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 37.5% Covert 4.1% red 1.2% Immortal 2.2% classified 15.2% sunny 2.3% gold 5.1% Ancient 1.3% pink 5.2% Legendary 4.9% Classified 5.7% Mythical 6.0% uncommon 4.3% violet 4.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt