---
title: "SHINOBI JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "SHINOBI JOKER ($87.54) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 45 items with odds, observed 78.65% over 3,551 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [SHINOBI JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · SHINOBI JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi-joker?window=all)

Price · $87.54

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $76.60 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.65% · 3,551 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.09% ±9.23 1,813 openings

7 days · 78.65% ±6.60 3,551 openings

30 days · 78.65% ±6.60 3,551 openings

since tracking started · 78.65% ±6.60 3,551 openings

71.5% 82.3% 93.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.64% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (72.05% – 85.25%, 3,551 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi-joker?window=24h) | 1,813 | 83.09% ±9.23 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi-joker?window=7d) | 3,551 | 78.65% ±6.60 | −2.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi-joker) | 3,551 | 78.65% ±6.60 | −2.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi-joker?window=all) | 3,551 | 78.65% ±6.60 | −2.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,568 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $797 | 38.5% | 106 | 132.1 | 0.80× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 27 | $472 | 22.8% | 119 | 132.1 | 0.90× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $317 | 15.3% | 127 | 132.1 | 0.96× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $130 | 3.1% | 0 | 66.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $115 | 2.8% | 0 | 66.1 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $102 | 4.9% | 150 | 132.1 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $82.29 | 1.0% | 0 | 33.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $59.09 | 1.0% | 0 | 44.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $57.30 | 0.7% | 0 | 33.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $55.23 | 0.9% | 0 | 44.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $54.85 | 0.9% | 0 | 44.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $53.63 | 0.6% | 0 | 33.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $48.44 | 0.6% | 0 | 33.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $31.55 | 0.5% | 0 | 44.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $23.23 | 0.4% | 0 | 44.1 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $23.06 | 1.1% | 131 | 132.1 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $22.35 | 0.4% | 0 | 44.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $13.56 | 0.7% | 128 | 132.2 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $13.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 66.1 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $12.34 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $10.77 | 0.3% | 0 | 66.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $8.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) | 1 in 27 | $8.03 | 0.4% | 129 | 132.2 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $7.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $6.99 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $6.79 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.1 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $6.33 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) | 1 in 27 | $6.26 | 0.3% | 161 | 132.2 | 1.22× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $5.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $5.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.1 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $5.20 | 0.3% | 141 | 132.2 | 1.07× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $5.17 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.1 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $4.87 | 0.2% | 116 | 132.2 | 0.88× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $4.82 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.0 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $3.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 66.1 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $3.21 | 0.1% | 0 | 66.1 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $3.06 | 0.1% | 137 | 132.2 | 1.04× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $3.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 66.1 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $2.74 | 0.1% | 142 | 132.2 | 1.07× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $2.43 | 0.1% | 135 | 132.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $2.33 | 0.1% | 123 | 132.2 | 0.93× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $2.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 66.1 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Lorena (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena-foil) | 1 in 27 | $2.28 | 0.1% | 157 | 132.2 | 1.19× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) | 1 in 27 | $1.91 | 0.1% | 128 | 132.2 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Cedar Creek (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek-holo) | 1 in 27 | $1.58 | 0.1% | 132 | 132.2 | 1.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/shinobi-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $86.97 $804 9.25x 2026-11-10 11:00 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $86.97 $804 9.25x 2026-11-10 10:44 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $86.97 $804 9.25x 2026-11-10 10:43 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $86.97 $804 9.25x 2026-11-10 09:52 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Silencieux zZzZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Silencieux%20zZzZ) $86.97 $804 9.25x 2026-11-10 09:51 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Silencieux zZzZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Silencieux%20zZzZ) $86.97 $804 9.25x 2026-11-10 09:49 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Silencieux zZzZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Silencieux%20zZzZ) $86.97 $804 9.25x 2026-11-10 09:49 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [GERD skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GERD%20skins.army) $86.97 $804 9.25x 2026-11-10 09:44 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $86.97 $804 9.25x 2026-11-10 08:46 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [niemiecbtc](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/niemiecbtc) $86.97 $804 9.25x 2026-11-10 07:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=shinobi-joker)

[Sticker | Lorena (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena-foil) Hidden $87.54 $2.28 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:19 UTC

[Sticker | Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) [Koz4cz3k SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Koz4cz3k%20SKINS) $87.54 $6.26 0.07x 2026-11-11 22:19 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $87.54 $472 5.39x 2026-11-11 22:19 UTC

[Souvenir M249 | Humidor Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor) [Koz4cz3k SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Koz4cz3k%20SKINS) $87.54 $2.67 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:19 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened) Hidden $87.54 $123 1.40x 2026-11-11 22:19 UTC

[Sticker | Lorena (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena-foil) [Koz4cz3k SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Koz4cz3k%20SKINS) $87.54 $2.28 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:19 UTC

[Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) Hidden $87.54 $2.43 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:19 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu) [Koz4cz3k SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Koz4cz3k%20SKINS) $87.54 $5.49 0.06x 2026-11-11 22:19 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu) [CS2.ME Browuś pyk pyk ♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CS2.ME%20Browu%C5%9B%20pyk%20pyk%20%E2%99%BF) $87.54 $5.49 0.06x 2026-11-11 22:14 UTC

[USP-S | Spiral Glitch weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch) Hidden $87.54 $25.71 0.29x 2026-11-11 22:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $87.54 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $88.10 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $87.54 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $88.10 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $86.97 | 88.50% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 3.7% gold 9.3% covert 5.6% #8847ff 4.9% Ancient 1.9% red 1.9% pink 16.1% violet 19.8% restricted 1.2% Legendary 4.9% uncommon 1.2% gray 3.7% blueLight 1.9% light blue 1.9% Industrial Grade 3.7% Rare 1.9% blue 13.0% #d32ce6 3.7% best hit $804 (9.25x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt