---
title: "SHINOBI case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SHINOBI ($5.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 45 items with odds, observed 86.83% over 47.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [SHINOBI](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · SHINOBI

A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $4.37 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.83% · 47.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.53% ±1.25 38.9K openings

7 days · 86.83% ±1.13 47.3K openings

30 days · 86.83% ±1.13 47.3K openings

since tracking started · 86.83% ±1.13 47.3K openings

84.5% 86.5% 88.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi?window=24h) | 38.9K | 86.53% ±1.25 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi?window=7d) | 47.3K | 86.83% ±1.13 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi) | 47.3K | 86.83% ±1.13 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/shinobi?window=all) | 47.3K | 86.83% ±1.13 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $797 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33,333 | $472 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.38× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $317 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.65× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $130 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $115 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $102 | 0.5% | 7 | 9.7 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $82.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $59.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $57.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $55.23 | 0.3% | 0 | 9.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $54.85 | 0.3% | 0 | 9.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $53.63 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $48.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $31.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 833 | $23.23 | 0.6% | 0 | 58.1 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $23.06 | 1.3% | 111 | 121.0 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 769 | $22.35 | 0.7% | 0 | 62.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $13.56 | 5.9% | 907 | 914.6 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 114 | $13.14 | 2.6% | 0 | 425.8 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 192 | $12.34 | 1.5% | 0 | 251.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $10.77 | 5.8% | 0 | 1132.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $8.68 | 3.0% | 0 | 725.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Lucas (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas-foil) | 1 in 18 | $8.03 | 10.5% | 2,704 | 2763.0 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $7.46 | 1.2% | 0 | 348.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $6.99 | 1.9% | 0 | 571.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $6.79 | 1.9% | 0 | 604.9 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $6.33 | 1.4% | 0 | 483.9 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) | 1 in 27 | $6.26 | 5.3% | 1,751 | 1800.1 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $5.86 | 1.7% | 0 | 600.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $5.43 | 1.8% | 0 | 696.8 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $5.20 | 5.3% | 1,995 | 2167.8 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $5.17 | 1.9% | 0 | 769.4 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $4.87 | 5.8% | 2,527 | 2540.4 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $4.82 | 2.1% | 0 | 909.7 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $3.29 | 2.3% | 0 | 1466.2 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $3.21 | 2.3% | 0 | 1519.4 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $3.06 | 4.4% | 3,098 | 3058.2 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $3.03 | 1.9% | 0 | 1325.9 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $2.74 | 4.1% | 3,285 | 3193.7 | 1.03× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.43 | 3.8% | 3,433 | 3353.4 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $2.33 | 3.7% | 3,413 | 3406.6 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.30 | 2.1% | 0 | 1945.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Lorena (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena-foil) | 1 in 14 | $2.28 | 3.7% | 3,516 | 3435.6 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) | 1 in 13 | $1.91 | 3.3% | 3,731 | 3692.1 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Cedar Creek (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek-holo) | 1 in 12 | $1.58 | 3.0% | 4,151 | 3977.6 | 1.04× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/shinobi`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $797 159.4x 2026-11-10 17:36 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5.00 $472 94.34x 2026-11-11 00:48 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5.00 $466 93.14x 2026-11-10 12:11 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-field-tested) [Gerdziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Gerdziu) $5.00 $329 65.73x 2026-11-10 13:58 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-field-tested) [BumBumek CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BumBumek%20CS2.ME) $5.00 $329 65.73x 2026-11-10 09:55 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-field-tested) [Rose](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rose) $5.00 $325 64.93x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $317 63.33x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=shinobi)

[P250 | Kintsugi weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi) [arkadiojose](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/arkadiojose) $5.00 $6.60 1.32x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[AWP | POP AWP weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp) Hidden $5.00 $7.57 1.51x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Crane Flight weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight) [Witold Pilecki](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Witold%20Pilecki) $5.00 $11.42 2.28x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[Sticker | Lorena (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena-foil) [McLovin1889](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/McLovin1889) $5.00 $2.28 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[Sticker | Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) [arkadiojose](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/arkadiojose) $5.00 $6.26 1.25x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[Sticker | Cedar Creek (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek-holo) [McLovin1889](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/McLovin1889) $5.00 $1.58 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[Sticker | Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) Hidden $5.00 $1.91 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[Sticker | Lorena (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena-foil) Hidden $5.00 $2.28 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $2.74 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Nitro (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-factory-new) [magdalena lewatywa CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/magdalena%20lewatywa%20CS2.ME) $5.00 $3.06 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $5.00 | 87.26% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $5.00 | 87.84% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.0% gold 0.0% covert 0.1% #8847ff 1.2% Ancient 0.0% red 0.0% pink 14.9% violet 20.1% restricted 1.3% Legendary 8.3% uncommon 1.4% gray 5.3% blueLight 3.0% light blue 3.1% Industrial Grade 6.3% Rare 2.7% blue 24.6% #d32ce6 7.6% best hit $797 (159.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt