--- title: "SNAKE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SNAKE JOKER ($622.53) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 25 items with odds, observed 96.35% over 433 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/snake-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [SNAKE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/snake-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · SNAKE JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/snake-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/snake-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/snake-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/snake-joker?window=all) Price · $622.53 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $544.71 from 25 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.35% · 433 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 72 openings · below min 7 days · 97.49% ±11.80 359 openings 30 days · 96.35% ±10.79 433 openings since tracking started · 96.35% ±10.79 433 openings 85.0% 114.0% 143.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/snake-joker?window=24h) | 72 | 116.06% ±26.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/snake-joker?window=7d) | 359 | 97.49% ±11.8 | +1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/snake-joker) | 433 | 96.35% ±10.8 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/snake-joker?window=all) | 433 | 96.35% ±10.8 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 463 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2,738 | 22.8% | 26 | 21.0 | 1.24× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1,956 | 16.3% | 30 | 21.0 | 1.43× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1,635 | 13.6% | 21 | 21.0 | 1.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1,123 | 9.4% | 16 | 21.0 | 0.76× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1,044 | 8.7% | 12 | 21.0 | 0.57× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $607 | 5.1% | 21 | 21.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $546 | 4.6% | 26 | 21.0 | 1.24× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $492 | 4.1% | 37 | 21.0 | 1.76× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $369 | 3.1% | 19 | 21.0 | 0.90× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $302 | 2.5% | 21 | 21.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $285 | 2.4% | 23 | 21.0 | 1.09× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $261 | 2.2% | 13 | 21.0 | 0.62× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $152 | 1.3% | 20 | 21.0 | 0.95× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $119 | 1.0% | 17 | 21.0 | 0.81× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $84.20 | 0.7% | 24 | 21.0 | 1.14× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $67.35 | 0.3% | 0 | 10.5 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $54.89 | 0.2% | 0 | 10.5 | 0.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $54.54 | 0.5% | 19 | 21.0 | 0.90× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $45.17 | 0.2% | 0 | 10.5 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $43.39 | 0.2% | 0 | 10.5 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $36.49 | 0.3% | 23 | 21.0 | 1.09× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $35.40 | 0.3% | 19 | 21.0 | 0.90× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $23.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 10.5 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $18.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 10.5 | 0.00× | | [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $18.33 | 0.2% | 21 | 21.0 | 1.00× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/snake-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) [iLliGhT](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/iLliGhT) $650 $2,812 4.33x 2026-11-07 00:48 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $650 $2,812 4.33x 2026-11-06 04:08 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $656 $2,811 4.28x 2026-11-02 21:46 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $656 $2,811 4.28x 2026-11-02 21:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $656 $2,811 4.28x 2026-11-02 21:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) [Scofield\_gda](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Scofield_gda) $655 $2,808 4.29x 2026-11-03 20:54 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) [SPARKY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SPARKY) $647 $2,803 4.33x 2026-11-07 23:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) [RUDSONCS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/RUDSONCS) $641 $2,801 4.37x 2026-11-06 19:04 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $641 $2,801 4.37x 2026-11-05 17:02 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $641 $2,801 4.37x 2026-11-04 18:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=snake-joker) [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $631 $150 0.24x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $631 $2,093 3.32x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) Hidden $631 $35.22 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $631 $1,634 2.59x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $631 $618 0.98x 2026-11-11 17:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $631 $2,093 3.32x 2026-11-11 17:31 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) Hidden $631 $30.42 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:31 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $631 $291 0.46x 2026-11-11 17:31 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $631 $119 0.19x 2026-11-11 17:31 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $631 $493 0.78x 2026-11-11 17:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $623 | 87.50% | 25 | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $625 | 87.50% | 25 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $627 | 87.50% | 25 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $631 | 87.50% | 25 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $646 | 87.50% | 25 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $643 | 87.50% | 25 | | 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $647 | 87.50% | 25 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $650 | 87.50% | 25 | | 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $641 | 87.50% | 25 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $650 | 87.50% | 25 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $641 | 87.50% | 25 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $655 | 87.50% | 25 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $656 | 87.50% | 25 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed sunny 40.9% gold 9.1% Covert 9.1% #ffd700 4.5% #eb4b4b 4.5% covert 6.8% blue 4.5% Ancient 2.3% classified 4.5% restricted 4.5% violet 9.1% best hit $2,812 (4.33x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt