---
title: "SPIRIT CALL JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "SPIRIT CALL JOKER ($44.17) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.49% from 40 items with odds, observed 89.22% over 17.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/spirit-call-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T08:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [SPIRIT CALL JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/spirit-call-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · SPIRIT CALL JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/spirit-call-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/spirit-call-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/spirit-call-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/spirit-call-joker?window=all)

Price · $44.17

Advertised RTP · 87.49% · EV $38.65 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.22% · 17.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 88.76% ±3.64 12.2K openings

30 days · 89.22% ±3.03 17.5K openings

since tracking started · 89.22% ±3.03 17.5K openings

84.5% 88.8% 93.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/spirit-call-joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/spirit-call-joker?window=7d) | 12.2K | 88.76% ±3.64 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/spirit-call-joker) | 17.5K | 89.22% ±3.03 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/spirit-call-joker?window=all) | 17.5K | 89.22% ±3.03 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 29 | $428 | 38.2% | 630 | 603.0 | 1.04× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $236 | 21.0% | 605 | 603.0 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $167 | 14.9% | 615 | 603.0 | 1.02× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $91.67 | 4.1% | 0 | 301.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $79.21 | 3.5% | 0 | 301.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $78.90 | 1.8% | 0 | 150.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $56.95 | 1.7% | 0 | 200.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $54.88 | 1.6% | 0 | 200.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $51.31 | 1.5% | 0 | 201.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $41.20 | 0.9% | 0 | 150.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $40.68 | 0.9% | 0 | 150.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $31.09 | 0.7% | 0 | 150.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $28.03 | 0.8% | 0 | 200.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $23.59 | 0.7% | 0 | 200.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $22.32 | 0.7% | 0 | 201.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $17.38 | 0.5% | 0 | 200.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $13.22 | 0.4% | 0 | 200.9 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $10.91 | 0.5% | 0 | 301.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $10.77 | 0.3% | 0 | 201.1 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $10.23 | 0.5% | 0 | 301.5 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $7.27 | 0.6% | 591 | 603.0 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $5.11 | 0.5% | 593 | 603.0 | 0.98× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $4.85 | 0.4% | 613 | 603.0 | 1.02× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $4.45 | 0.4% | 573 | 603.0 | 0.95× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $4.42 | 0.4% | 642 | 603.0 | 1.06× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.81 | 0.3% | 620 | 603.0 | 1.03× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $3.29 | 0.3% | 581 | 603.0 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) | 1 in 29 | $3.09 | 0.3% | 607 | 603.0 | 1.01× |
| [G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $2.74 | 0.2% | 630 | 603.0 | 1.04× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.43 | 0.2% | 624 | 603.0 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) | 1 in 29 | $1.91 | 0.2% | 617 | 603.0 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Cedar Creek (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek-holo) | 1 in 29 | $1.65 | 0.1% | 577 | 603.0 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.24 | 0.1% | 607 | 603.2 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.24 | 0.1% | 569 | 603.2 | 0.94× |
| [Sticker \| Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) | 1 in 29 | $1.22 | 0.1% | 614 | 603.2 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.18 | 0.1% | 557 | 603.2 | 0.92× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.98 | 0.1% | 575 | 603.2 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) | 1 in 29 | $0.92 | 0.1% | 597 | 603.2 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.83 | 0.1% | 583 | 603.2 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.58 | 0.1% | 605 | 603.2 | 1.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/spirit-call-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=spirit-call-joker)

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) Hidden $44.17 $1.24 0.03x 2026-11-09 20:56 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $44.17 $428 9.69x 2026-11-09 20:56 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-battle-scarred) [lolo2316](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/lolo2316) $44.17 $4.45 0.10x 2026-11-09 20:56 UTC

[SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $44.17 $0.58 0.01x 2026-11-09 20:52 UTC

[Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $44.17 $167 3.78x 2026-11-09 20:52 UTC

[Sticker | Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) Hidden $44.17 $1.22 0.03x 2026-11-09 20:52 UTC

[Sticker | Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) [Scofield\_gda](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Scofield_gda) $44.17 $1.91 0.04x 2026-11-09 20:52 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-battle-scarred) Hidden $44.17 $4.45 0.10x 2026-11-09 20:52 UTC

[Sticker | Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) Hidden $44.17 $0.92 0.02x 2026-11-09 20:52 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch) Hidden $44.17 $24.65 0.56x 2026-11-09 20:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $44.17 | 87.49% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $44.98 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $45.74 | 87.49% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $45.19 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $45.90 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $45.12 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $45.21 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $45.12 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $45.68 | 87.49% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $45.90 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $45.49 | 87.51% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $45.90 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $45.65 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $45.90 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $45.22 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $45.97 | 87.49% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $45.74 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $45.84 | 87.51% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $45.88 | 87.50% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.4% extraordinary 3.4% restricted 3.4% rare 5.7% Immortal 1.7% red 1.1% uncommon 1.7% pink 14.4% classified 2.9% blue 13.8% violet 17.2% gray 13.8% blueLight 6.9% #d32ce6 3.4% grey 3.4% common 3.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.49 on average: an expected loss of $12.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt