---
title: "STATTRAK JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "STATTRAK JOKER ($40.28) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 55 items with odds, observed 89.74% over 1,075 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [STATTRAK JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · STATTRAK JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak-joker?window=all)

Price · $40.28

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $35.25 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.74% · 1,075 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78 openings · below min

7 days · 89.33% ±6.65 926 openings

30 days · 89.74% ±6.17 1,075 openings

since tracking started · 89.74% ±6.17 1,075 openings

69.0% 93.5% 118.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak-joker?window=24h) | 78 | 93.59% ±23.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak-joker?window=7d) | 926 | 89.33% ±6.65 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak-joker) | 1,075 | 89.74% ±6.17 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak-joker?window=all) | 1,075 | 89.74% ±6.17 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,205 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $148 | 20.0% | 55 | 57.4 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $123 | 16.6% | 53 | 57.4 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $87.65 | 11.8% | 58 | 57.4 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $73.95 | 10.0% | 58 | 57.4 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $71.80 | 9.7% | 57 | 57.4 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $69.89 | 9.4% | 54 | 57.4 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $55.58 | 3.8% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $44.34 | 3.0% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $37.47 | 5.1% | 57 | 57.4 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $29.28 | 4.0% | 61 | 57.4 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $21.85 | 1.5% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $15.01 | 0.5% | 0 | 14.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $10.60 | 0.7% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $9.61 | 0.4% | 0 | 19.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $8.11 | 0.3% | 0 | 14.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $7.79 | 0.3% | 0 | 14.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $6.55 | 0.2% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $6.36 | 0.2% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-wave-breaker-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $6.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $5.89 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $5.76 | 0.3% | 0 | 19.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $5.65 | 0.3% | 0 | 19.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $5.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $4.24 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $3.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $3.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $3.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $2.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $2.37 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $2.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-wave-breaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $1.77 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-liquidation-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $1.76 | 0.2% | 57 | 57.4 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $1.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $1.57 | 0.1% | 0 | 14.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $1.36 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $1.13 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.99 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.94 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.84 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-wave-breaker-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.70 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.70 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-wave-breaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $0.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.54 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $0.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/stattrak-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=stattrak-joker)

[StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-wave-breaker) Hidden $40.28 $2.02 0.05x 2026-11-11 22:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-liquidation-factory-new) Hidden $40.28 $1.76 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech) Hidden $40.28 $1.63 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) [M3L3R](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M3L3R) $40.28 $69.89 1.74x 2026-11-11 22:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) Hidden $40.28 $29.28 0.73x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon) Hidden $40.28 $1.70 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Meow 36 StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36) Hidden $40.28 $0.98 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) [M3L3R](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M3L3R) $40.28 $73.95 1.84x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Food Chain StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain) [Barack Oblizmijaja](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Barack%20Oblizmijaja) $40.28 $9.01 0.22x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis) [Barack Oblizmijaja](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Barack%20Oblizmijaja) $40.28 $49.96 1.24x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $40.28 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $40.54 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $40.28 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $40.70 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $38.89 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $39.23 | 87.51% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $39.59 | 87.49% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $39.86 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $38.99 | 87.49% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $39.33 | 87.51% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $38.99 | 87.49% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $39.05 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $38.99 | 87.49% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $39.05 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $39.06 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $38.68 | 87.51% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $39.00 | 87.49% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $38.68 | 87.51% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $38.86 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $38.68 | 87.51% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $38.86 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $38.70 | 87.49% | 55 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 11.9% #eb4b4b 4.8% covert 19.0% Covert 7.1% classified 4.8% pink 10.3% Classified 2.4% violet 23.6% restricted 2.9% #d32ce6 1.6% Mythical 1.2% Mil Spec Grade 4.8% blue 2.4% #8847ff 1.0% milspec 2.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt