---
title: "STATTRAK case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "STATTRAK ($4.25) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 55 items with odds, observed 85.02% over 10.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [STATTRAK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · STATTRAK

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak?window=all)

Price · $4.25

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.72 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.02% · 10.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.55% ±10.03 1,049 openings

7 days · 84.08% ±3.66 8,656 openings

30 days · 85.02% ±3.37 10.3K openings

since tracking started · 85.02% ±3.37 10.3K openings

79.0% 89.5% 100.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak?window=24h) | 1,049 | 89.55% ±10.0 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak?window=7d) | 8,656 | 84.08% ±3.66 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak) | 10.3K | 85.02% ±3.37 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/stattrak?window=all) | 10.3K | 85.02% ±3.37 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $149 | 1.6% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.22× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $124 | 1.7% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $86.96 | 1.6% | 2 | 7.2 | 0.28× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $73.84 | 1.8% | 6 | 9.2 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,111 | $72.89 | 1.8% | 11 | 9.2 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $68.10 | 1.6% | 8 | 9.2 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $56.77 | 0.8% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $44.98 | 1.0% | 0 | 8.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 625 | $39.41 | 1.7% | 13 | 16.4 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 455 | $29.16 | 1.7% | 15 | 22.6 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $21.68 | 0.6% | 0 | 10.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 139 | $14.83 | 2.9% | 0 | 73.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $10.99 | 14.1% | 0 | 489.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $9.62 | 5.9% | 0 | 236.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $8.00 | 6.5% | 0 | 310.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $7.63 | 3.8% | 0 | 187.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $6.69 | 7.8% | 0 | 444.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $6.27 | 6.9% | 0 | 418.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $5.95 | 0.5% | 0 | 33.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-wave-breaker-factory-new) | 1 in 204 | $5.79 | 0.8% | 0 | 50.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $5.71 | 8.3% | 0 | 553.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $5.62 | 8.4% | 0 | 571.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $5.07 | 1.1% | 0 | 82.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $4.21 | 1.4% | 0 | 127.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $3.80 | 1.2% | 0 | 120.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $3.60 | 1.2% | 0 | 130.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $3.44 | 0.3% | 0 | 30.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $2.48 | 0.2% | 0 | 35.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $2.45 | 0.3% | 0 | 51.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 1 in 256 | $2.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 40.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-liquidation-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1.70 | 2.6% | 615 | 574.6 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-wave-breaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 147 | $1.68 | 0.3% | 0 | 69.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $1.56 | 0.4% | 0 | 90.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $1.52 | 0.4% | 0 | 96.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $1.33 | 0.3% | 0 | 87.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 127 | $1.18 | 0.3% | 0 | 81.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $0.96 | 0.5% | 0 | 191.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $0.93 | 0.5% | 0 | 201.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $0.93 | 0.3% | 0 | 123.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.84 | 0.5% | 0 | 231.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $0.83 | 0.4% | 0 | 187.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-wave-breaker-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $0.73 | 0.4% | 0 | 224.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $0.73 | 0.4% | 0 | 202.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $0.73 | 0.3% | 0 | 173.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $0.70 | 0.4% | 0 | 214.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.66 | 0.5% | 0 | 309.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.66 | 0.4% | 0 | 231.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-wave-breaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $0.64 | 0.5% | 0 | 270.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $0.63 | 0.4% | 0 | 213.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.61 | 0.6% | 0 | 345.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.57 | 0.3% | 0 | 223.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.54 | 0.4% | 0 | 264.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $0.49 | 0.4% | 0 | 276.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $0.46 | 0.4% | 0 | 301.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $0.28 | 0.7% | 0 | 978.8 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/stattrak`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=stattrak)

[StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush) Hidden $4.25 $0.85 0.20x 2026-11-11 22:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush) Hidden $4.25 $0.85 0.20x 2026-11-11 22:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike) Hidden $4.25 $1.46 0.34x 2026-11-11 22:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Meow 36 StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36) [El bociur](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/El%20bociur) $4.25 $0.39 0.09x 2026-11-11 22:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike) [mo✘evis](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mo%E2%9C%98evis) $4.25 $1.46 0.34x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech) Hidden $4.25 $0.85 0.20x 2026-11-11 22:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Food Chain StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain) Hidden $4.25 $7.36 1.73x 2026-11-11 22:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Meow 36 StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36) [El bociur](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/El%20bociur) $4.25 $0.39 0.09x 2026-11-11 22:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick) Hidden $4.25 $5.12 1.20x 2026-11-11 22:29 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-wave-breaker) Hidden $4.25 $1.12 0.26x 2026-11-11 22:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $4.25 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $4.25 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.25 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $4.25 | 87.20% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $4.25 | 87.56% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $4.25 | 87.62% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $4.25 | 87.52% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $4.25 | 87.34% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $4.25 | 87.11% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $4.25 | 87.39% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $4.25 | 87.11% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $4.25 | 87.79% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $4.25 | 87.32% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.25 | 87.22% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $4.25 | 87.73% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $4.25 | 88.05% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.25 | 87.31% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $4.25 | 87.42% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $4.25 | 87.86% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $4.25 | 87.39% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $4.25 | 87.86% | 55 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $4.25 | 87.39% | 55 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.2% #eb4b4b 0.1% covert 0.5% Covert 0.2% classified 5.4% pink 20.0% Classified 4.8% restricted 3.8% violet 42.4% #d32ce6 5.6% Mythical 0.3% Mil Spec Grade 5.6% blue 0.9% #8847ff 0.8% milspec 9.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt