--- title: "SWEET DEAL JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SWEET DEAL JOKER ($215.89) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 83.24% over 379 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T06:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [SWEET DEAL JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · SWEET DEAL JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal-joker?window=all) Price · $215.89 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $188.90 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.24% · 379 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 76 openings · below min 7 days · 81.59% ±11.11 273 openings 30 days · 83.24% ±9.41 379 openings since tracking started · 83.24% ±9.41 379 openings 66.0% 88.0% 110.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal-joker?window=24h) | 76 | 87.95% ±21.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal-joker?window=7d) | 273 | 81.59% ±11.1 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal-joker) | 379 | 83.24% ±9.41 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal-joker?window=all) | 379 | 83.24% ±9.41 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 435 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $697 | 36.9% | 38 | 43.5 | 0.87× | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 10.0% | $357 | 18.9% | 48 | 43.5 | 1.10× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 10.0% | $240 | 12.7% | 45 | 43.5 | 1.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 10.0% | $234 | 12.4% | 42 | 43.5 | 0.97× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $159 | 8.4% | 42 | 43.5 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $150 | 7.9% | 42 | 43.5 | 0.97× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 10.0% | $43.39 | 2.3% | 44 | 43.5 | 1.01× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 10.0% | $4.33 | 0.2% | 42 | 43.5 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 10.0% | $4.16 | 0.2% | 38 | 43.5 | 0.87× | | [Sticker \| Boom Trail (Glitter) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail-glitter) | 10.0% | $0.15 | 0.0% | 54 | 43.5 | 1.24× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/sweet-deal-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $224 $712 3.18x 2026-11-02 22:34 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [XM1NN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XM1NN) $224 $712 3.18x 2026-11-02 22:34 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $224 $712 3.18x 2026-11-02 22:33 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [XM1NN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XM1NN) $224 $712 3.18x 2026-11-02 22:33 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $224 $712 3.18x 2026-11-02 22:33 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $224 $712 3.18x 2026-11-02 22:31 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $224 $712 3.18x 2026-11-02 22:31 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [XM1NN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XM1NN) $224 $712 3.18x 2026-11-02 22:31 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $224 $712 3.18x 2026-11-02 22:30 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [XM1NN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XM1NN) $224 $712 3.18x 2026-11-02 22:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=sweet-deal-joker) [★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $216 $159 0.74x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $216 $159 0.74x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $216 $357 1.65x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Bubson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Bubson) $216 $240 1.11x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) Hidden $216 $4.33 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $216 $159 0.74x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) Hidden $216 $150 0.69x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Bubson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Bubson) $216 $240 1.11x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $216 $43.39 0.20x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) Hidden $216 $4.33 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $216 | 87.50% | 10 | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $216 | 87.50% | 10 | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $216 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $219 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $220 | 87.50% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $217 | 87.50% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $219 | 87.50% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $217 | 87.50% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $224 | 87.50% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $223 | 87.50% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $224 | 87.50% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $224 | 87.50% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $224 | 87.50% | 10 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $222 | 87.50% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $221 | 87.50% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $224 | 87.50% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 20.0% covert 10.0% gold 10.0% red 20.0% Ancient 10.0% pink 20.0% #8847ff 10.0% best hit $712 (3.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt