---
title: "SWEET DEAL case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SWEET DEAL ($4.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 86.92% over 13.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [SWEET DEAL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · SWEET DEAL

A case on Casehug (KINDA RISKY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal?window=all)

Price · $4.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.50 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.92% · 13.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 36.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 26.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.81% ±8.24 1,891 openings

7 days · 86.82% ±3.37 11.7K openings

30 days · 86.92% ±3.12 13.6K openings

since tracking started · 86.92% ±3.12 13.6K openings

79.0% 87.8% 96.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal?window=24h) | 1,891 | 87.81% ±8.24 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal?window=7d) | 11.7K | 86.82% ±3.37 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal) | 13.6K | 86.92% ±3.12 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-deal?window=all) | 13.6K | 86.92% ±3.12 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $697 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $357 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $240 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $234 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.47× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $159 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.20× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $150 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $43.39 | 6.7% | 83 | 73.6 | 1.13× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 35.6% | $4.33 | 44.1% | 4,614 | 4857.4 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 37.1% | $4.16 | 44.1% | 4,852 | 5056.4 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Boom Trail (Glitter) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail-glitter) | 26.7% | $0.15 | 1.1% | 4,073 | 3633.5 | 1.12× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/sweet-deal`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) Hidden $4.00 $247 61.65x 2026-11-03 14:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) Hidden $4.00 $246 61.52x 2026-11-07 10:31 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=sweet-deal)

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $4.16 1.04x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $4.33 1.08x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $4.33 1.08x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC

[Sticker | Boom Trail (Glitter) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail-glitter) [???????????? Okruch](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20Okruch) $4.00 $0.15 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $4.16 1.04x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC

[Sticker | Boom Trail (Glitter) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail-glitter) Hidden $4.00 $0.15 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC

[Sticker | Boom Trail (Glitter) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail-glitter) Hidden $4.00 $0.15 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) [???????????? Okruch](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20Okruch) $4.00 $4.33 1.08x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $4.16 1.04x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $43.39 10.85x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.00 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $4.00 | 87.26% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $4.00 | 87.34% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.00 | 87.36% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $4.00 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $4.00 | 87.52% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $4.00 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $4.00 | 87.48% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $4.00 | 87.54% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $4.00 | 87.49% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.00 | 87.37% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $4.00 | 87.49% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.00 | 87.33% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.00 | 87.37% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $4.00 | 87.52% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $4.00 | 87.61% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $4.00 | 87.25% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $4.00 | 87.25% | 10 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% covert 0.0% gold 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.5% pink 72.7% #8847ff 26.7% best hit $247 (61.65x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt