--- title: "SWEET TOOTH JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SWEET TOOTH JOKER ($66.24) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 90.34% over 743 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T22:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [SWEET TOOTH JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · SWEET TOOTH JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth-joker?window=all) Price · $66.24 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $57.96 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.34% · 743 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96.22% ±17.36 100 openings 7 days · 91.88% ±6.86 633 openings 30 days · 90.34% ±6.34 743 openings since tracking started · 90.34% ±6.34 743 openings 78.0% 96.0% 114.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth-joker?window=24h) | 100 | 96.22% ±17.4 | +1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth-joker?window=7d) | 633 | 91.88% ±6.86 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth-joker) | 743 | 90.34% ±6.34 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth-joker?window=all) | 743 | 90.34% ±6.34 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 837 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $179 | 30.9% | 85 | 83.7 | 1.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 10.0% | $144 | 24.9% | 90 | 83.7 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 10.0% | $76.39 | 13.2% | 81 | 83.7 | 0.97× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 10.0% | $64.89 | 11.2% | 92 | 83.7 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 10.0% | $53.93 | 9.3% | 76 | 83.7 | 0.91× | | [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 10.0% | $46.94 | 8.1% | 86 | 83.7 | 1.03× | | [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 10.0% | $8.61 | 1.5% | 66 | 83.7 | 0.79× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 10.0% | $4.61 | 0.8% | 94 | 83.7 | 1.12× | | [Sticker \| Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) | 10.0% | $1.15 | 0.2% | 90 | 83.7 | 1.08× | | [Sawed-Off \| Crimson Batik (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-crimson-batik-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 77 | 83.7 | 0.92× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/sweet-tooth-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=sweet-tooth-joker) [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) Hidden $66.24 $53.93 0.81x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) Hidden $66.24 $53.93 0.81x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) Hidden $66.24 $76.39 1.15x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) [M3L3R](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M3L3R) $66.24 $76.39 1.15x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-crimson-batik-minimal-wear) [Barack Oblizmijaja](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Barack%20Oblizmijaja) $66.24 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $66.24 $64.89 0.98x 2026-11-11 21:35 UTC [Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-crimson-batik-minimal-wear) Hidden $66.24 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:35 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $66.24 $64.89 0.98x 2026-11-11 21:35 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $66.24 $179 2.70x 2026-11-11 21:31 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $66.24 $144 2.18x 2026-11-11 21:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $66.24 | 87.50% | 10 | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $63.30 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $66.24 | 87.50% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $66.18 | 87.50% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $67.15 | 87.50% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $67.13 | 87.50% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $66.85 | 87.50% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $67.13 | 87.50% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $66.85 | 87.50% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $67.56 | 87.49% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $66.85 | 87.50% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $65.61 | 87.50% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $67.82 | 87.50% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $67.64 | 87.50% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $67.04 | 87.50% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 40.0% red 20.0% classified 10.0% Legendary 10.0% violet 10.0% grey 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt