---
title: "SWEET TOOTH case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "SWEET TOOTH ($1.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 85.55% over 25.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [SWEET TOOTH](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · SWEET TOOTH

A case on Casehug (KINDA RISKY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.87 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.55% · 25.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 69.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 31.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.60% ±7.84 2,665 openings

7 days · 84.89% ±2.95 20.8K openings

30 days · 85.55% ±2.68 25.3K openings

since tracking started · 85.55% ±2.68 25.3K openings

76.0% 84.5% 93.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth?window=24h) | 2,665 | 84.60% ±7.84 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth?window=7d) | 20.8K | 84.89% ±2.95 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth) | 25.3K | 85.55% ±2.68 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/sweet-tooth?window=all) | 25.3K | 85.55% ±2.68 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $176 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $128 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $71.37 | 0.8% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.19× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $65.16 | 0.7% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $54.85 | 1.3% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $44.56 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $8.51 | 0.4% | 8 | 10.1 | 0.79× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $4.45 | 4.6% | 173 | 227.7 | 0.76× |
| [Sticker \| Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) | 68.0% | $1.15 | 89.4% | 15,882 | 17201.3 | 0.92× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Crimson Batik (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-crimson-batik-minimal-wear) | 31.0% | $0.02 | 0.7% | 9,217 | 7841.8 | 1.18× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/sweet-tooth`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) [????⃤⃢KoTaJs](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%E2%83%A4%E2%83%A2KoTaJs) $1.00 $172 171.9x 2026-11-10 11:53 UTC

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $153 153.4x 2026-11-03 16:22 UTC

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $150 150.1x 2026-11-04 21:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) [KB](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KB) $1.00 $77.25 77.25x 2026-11-03 13:24 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 $76.93 76.93x 2026-11-05 14:01 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 $75.63 75.63x 2026-11-06 13:53 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $68.41 68.41x 2026-11-08 13:55 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) [Peakytojaskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Peakytojaskins.army) $1.00 $66.22 66.22x 2026-11-03 10:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $63.33 63.33x 2026-11-09 18:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $57.25 57.25x 2026-11-05 23:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=sweet-tooth)

[Sticker | Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) Hidden $1.00 $1.15 1.15x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[Sticker | Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) [????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $1.00 $1.15 1.15x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[Sticker | Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) [.Ksawier\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/.Ksawier_) $1.00 $1.15 1.15x 2026-11-11 16:46 UTC

[Sticker | Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) [????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $1.00 $1.15 1.15x 2026-11-11 16:46 UTC

[Sticker | Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) [albanczykskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/albanczykskins.army) $1.00 $1.15 1.15x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-crimson-batik-minimal-wear) [albanczykskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/albanczykskins.army) $1.00 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-crimson-batik-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[Sticker | Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) Hidden $1.00 $1.15 1.15x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-crimson-batik-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[Sticker | Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) [SvP](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SvP) $1.00 $1.15 1.15x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.00 | 87.25% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.00 | 82.60% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.00 | 88.09% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.26% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $1.00 | 87.31% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $1.00 | 87.99% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $1.00 | 87.30% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $1.00 | 87.02% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.00 | 87.42% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $1.00 | 87.13% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $1.00 | 86.54% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.00 | 84.65% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $1.00 | 86.73% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $1.00 | 87.05% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.00 | 87.10% | 10 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% classified 0.0% Legendary 0.9% violet 68.0% grey 31.0% best hit $172 (171.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt