---
title: "TAXI JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "TAXI JOKER ($122.85) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 41 items with odds, observed 82.25% over 228 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T00:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [TAXI JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · TAXI JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi-joker?window=all)

Price · $122.85

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $107.49 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.25% · 228 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 33 openings · below min

7 days · 81.83% ±21.88 202 openings

30 days · 82.25% ±20.60 228 openings

since tracking started · 82.25% ±20.60 228 openings

53.5% 107.5% 161.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi-joker?window=24h) | 33 | 107.65% ±53.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi-joker?window=7d) | 202 | 81.83% ±21.9 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi-joker) | 228 | 82.25% ±20.6 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi-joker?window=all) | 228 | 82.25% ±20.6 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 250 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $720 | 31.9% | 5 | 11.9 | 0.42× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $618 | 27.4% | 16 | 11.9 | 1.34× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $246 | 10.9% | 5 | 11.9 | 0.42× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $216 | 9.5% | 18 | 11.9 | 1.51× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $126 | 5.6% | 14 | 11.9 | 1.18× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $100 | 4.4% | 15 | 11.9 | 1.26× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $64.58 | 2.9% | 7 | 11.9 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $58.81 | 2.6% | 13 | 11.9 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $45.10 | 0.7% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $42.06 | 0.9% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $41.25 | 0.9% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $24.12 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $15.27 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $8.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $8.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $7.02 | 0.3% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.92× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $6.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $6.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $5.16 | 0.2% | 15 | 11.9 | 1.26× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $5.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $4.85 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $4.31 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $4.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $4.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $4.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $4.11 | 0.2% | 15 | 11.9 | 1.26× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Well-Worn) weapon · 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $3.93 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $3.90 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $1.79 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Factory New) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $1.25 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $1.07 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $1.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $1.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Army Sheen (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $1.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $0.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $0.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $0.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.66 | 0.0% | 15 | 11.9 | 1.26× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.63 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/taxi-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) [Grabroo](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Grabroo) $126 $744 5.88x 2026-11-06 20:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) [drvx0 ム](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/drvx0%20%E3%83%A0) $125 $736 5.88x 2026-11-09 17:08 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) [????LySy™](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3FLySy%E2%84%A2) $125 $735 5.89x 2026-11-08 15:38 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) Hidden $118 $720 6.09x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) Hidden $118 $720 6.09x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $126 $627 4.96x 2026-11-06 14:22 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $125 $625 4.98x 2026-11-07 11:40 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [Johnny SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Johnny%20SKINS) $126 $623 4.94x 2026-11-04 23:15 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $126 $623 4.94x 2026-11-04 12:33 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [good](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/good) $126 $623 4.94x 2026-11-03 19:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=taxi-joker)

[AUG | Stymphalian weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian) Hidden $123 $4.31 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:08 UTC

[AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) Hidden $123 $4.11 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:08 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex) Hidden $123 $5.37 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:08 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream) [junio](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/junio) $123 $41.66 0.34x 2026-11-11 22:08 UTC

[MAG-7 | Justice weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice) Hidden $123 $7.23 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator) Hidden $123 $28.16 0.23x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) [Bananos](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Bananos) $123 $216 1.75x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC

[AUG | Stymphalian weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian) Hidden $123 $4.31 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:00 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) Hidden $123 $126 1.03x 2026-11-11 19:00 UTC

[MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) Hidden $123 $7.02 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $123 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $118 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $117 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $122 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $125 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $124 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $126 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $125 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $125 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $125 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $125 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $126 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $126 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $126 | 87.50% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 4 1.2% covert 23.8% gold 4.8% rare 4.8% Ancient 7.1% classified 12.7% red 2.4% pink 10.7% #d32ee6 6.0% gray 4.0% blue 7.6% Legendary 1.2% Classified 1.6% grey 6.7% Consumer Grade 3.6% #4b69ff 1.9% best hit $744 (5.88x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt