---
title: "TAXI case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "TAXI ($6.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 41 items with odds, observed 86.11% over 10.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [TAXI](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · TAXI

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi?window=all)

Price · $6.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $5.69 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.11% · 10.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.34% ±10.84 1,318 openings

7 days · 85.88% ±5.19 8,673 openings

30 days · 86.11% ±4.65 10.3K openings

since tracking started · 86.11% ±4.65 10.3K openings

78.0% 89.5% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi?window=24h) | 1,318 | 89.34% ±10.8 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi?window=7d) | 8,673 | 85.88% ±5.19 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi) | 10.3K | 86.11% ±4.65 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/taxi?window=all) | 10.3K | 86.11% ±4.65 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 11,111 | $720 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $618 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $246 | 1.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,571 | $216 | 1.1% | 8 | 2.9 | 2.78× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,128 | $126 | 1.0% | 9 | 4.8 | 1.86× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,695 | $100 | 1.0% | 15 | 6.1 | 2.47× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 1,099 | $64.58 | 1.0% | 14 | 9.4 | 1.50× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,010 | $58.81 | 1.0% | 30 | 10.2 | 2.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $45.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,449 | $42.06 | 0.5% | 0 | 7.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,389 | $41.25 | 0.5% | 0 | 7.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $24.12 | 19.3% | 0 | 468.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 10.1% | $15.27 | 27.1% | 0 | 1036.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $8.67 | 2.9% | 0 | 193.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $8.06 | 2.1% | 0 | 152.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $7.02 | 10.5% | 853 | 876.6 | 0.97× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $6.70 | 3.7% | 0 | 324.4 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $6.32 | 1.8% | 0 | 169.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $5.16 | 4.4% | 517 | 492.8 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99 | $5.08 | 0.9% | 0 | 104.3 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 330 | $4.85 | 0.3% | 0 | 31.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 446 | $4.31 | 0.2% | 0 | 23.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $4.16 | 1.5% | 0 | 208.1 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $4.12 | 1.0% | 0 | 139.8 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $4.12 | 1.0% | 0 | 139.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $4.11 | 3.8% | 564 | 539.8 | 1.04× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Well-Worn) weapon · 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $3.93 | 1.0% | 0 | 149.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $3.90 | 1.5% | 0 | 227.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $1.79 | 0.2% | 0 | 78.6 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Factory New) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $1.25 | 0.5% | 0 | 244.6 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $1.07 | 0.5% | 0 | 257.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.06 | 0.8% | 0 | 452.8 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $1.01 | 0.6% | 0 | 329.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Army Sheen (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $1.01 | 0.8% | 0 | 484.6 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.95 | 0.5% | 0 | 304.2 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.95 | 0.6% | 0 | 359.1 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $0.86 | 0.5% | 0 | 349.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $0.80 | 0.3% | 0 | 242.7 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 10.9% | $0.66 | 1.3% | 1,174 | 1121.7 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.63 | 0.4% | 0 | 339.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $0.58 | 0.4% | 0 | 381.3 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/taxi`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $6.50 $618 95.09x 2026-11-08 22:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=taxi)

[AK-47 | Wintergreen weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen) Hidden $6.50 $0.82 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC

[MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) Hidden $6.50 $7.02 1.08x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed) [SKINSlimonek321skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SKINSlimonek321skins.army) $6.50 $1.08 0.17x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator) Hidden $6.50 $18.07 2.78x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen) Hidden $6.50 $0.82 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) [SKINSlimonek321skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SKINSlimonek321skins.army) $6.50 $7.02 1.08x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.50 $5.16 0.79x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex) Hidden $6.50 $5.07 0.78x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC

[MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) [damianxc21](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/damianxc21) $6.50 $7.02 1.08x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen) Hidden $6.50 $0.82 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $6.50 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $6.50 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $6.50 | 87.15% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $6.50 | 88.14% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $6.50 | 87.21% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.50 | 87.97% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $6.50 | 87.78% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $6.50 | 87.25% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $6.50 | 87.78% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $6.50 | 87.25% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $6.50 | 87.84% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $6.50 | 87.86% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $6.50 | 87.27% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $6.50 | 87.80% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.50 | 87.53% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $6.50 | 87.53% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $6.50 | 87.49% | 41 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $6.50 | 87.44% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 4 1.5% covert 0.2% gold 0.0% rare 0.0% Ancient 0.2% classified 24.9% red 0.1% pink 15.1% #d32ee6 5.8% gray 6.3% blue 15.6% Legendary 1.4% Classified 2.2% grey 13.3% Consumer Grade 7.8% #4b69ff 5.7% best hit $618 (95.09x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt