---
title: "THE BOMB JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "THE BOMB JOKER ($54.58) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 57 items with odds, observed 90.46% over 458 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T00:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [THE BOMB JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · THE BOMB JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb-joker?window=all)

Price · $54.58

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $47.76 from 57 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.46% · 458 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 49 openings · below min

7 days · 88.13% ±16.87 417 openings

30 days · 90.46% ±16.10 458 openings

since tracking started · 90.46% ±16.10 458 openings

70.5% 121.0% 171.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb-joker?window=24h) | 49 | 121.69% ±49.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb-joker?window=7d) | 417 | 88.13% ±16.9 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb-joker) | 458 | 90.46% ±16.1 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb-joker?window=all) | 458 | 90.46% ±16.1 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 57 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 518 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 23 | $398 | 36.2% | 20 | 22.5 | 0.89× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 23 | $259 | 23.5% | 29 | 22.5 | 1.29× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $154 | 14.0% | 18 | 22.5 | 0.80× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $83.48 | 7.6% | 23 | 22.5 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $56.50 | 5.1% | 21 | 22.5 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $44.98 | 4.1% | 18 | 22.5 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $26.68 | 2.4% | 30 | 22.5 | 1.33× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $24.95 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $17.20 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $15.49 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $15.31 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $15.25 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $15.10 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $14.57 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $14.55 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $11.73 | 0.5% | 0 | 11.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $9.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $7.60 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $6.85 | 0.3% | 0 | 11.3 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $6.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $5.37 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $5.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $4.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $4.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $4.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $4.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.5 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $4.33 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $4.24 | 0.4% | 27 | 22.5 | 1.20× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $4.04 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $3.90 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $3.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 11.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $2.85 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $2.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.99 | 0.2% | 22 | 22.5 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $1.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.5 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $1.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $1.53 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.5 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $1.27 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $1.25 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $1.25 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $1.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $1.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 7.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $0.92 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $0.84 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $0.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.5 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $0.63 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $0.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.5 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.5 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.5 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Splatter Cat charm · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-splatter-cat) | 1 in 23 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 21 | 22.5 | 0.93× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/the-bomb-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=the-bomb-joker)

[Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) [\[AoW\]Nitro\_Demon](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%5BAoW%5DNitro_Demon) $54.99 $1.97 0.04x 2026-11-12 00:05 UTC

[Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) [\[AoW\]Nitro\_Demon](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%5BAoW%5DNitro_Demon) $54.99 $44.64 0.81x 2026-11-12 00:04 UTC

[FAMAS | Pulse weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse) [Dawmro CS2.ME SKINS skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Dawmro%20CS2.ME%20SKINS%20skins.army) $54.99 $9.93 0.18x 2026-11-11 23:34 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tacticat weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat) Hidden $54.99 $1.34 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid) Hidden $54.99 $0.53 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) Hidden $54.99 $83.48 1.52x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid) [M3L3R](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M3L3R) $54.99 $0.53 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $54.99 $259 4.70x 2026-11-11 21:57 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Nissan Laurel C35cstorm.pl](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Nissan%20Laurel%20C35cstorm.pl) $54.99 $405 7.37x 2026-11-11 21:57 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation) [junio](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/junio) $54.99 $1.86 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $54.58 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $55.15 | 87.51% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $55.17 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $55.38 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $54.66 | 87.49% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $55.09 | 87.49% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $54.36 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $54.14 | 87.51% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $54.36 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $54.90 | 87.51% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $55.35 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $54.91 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $54.58 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $54.50 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $55.35 | 87.50% | 57 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 26.1% Ancient 4.3% classified 13.0% Mythical 2.2% restricted 8.0% Classified 2.2% pink 6.9% Legendary 2.5% #d32ee6 1.5% #8847ff 5.4% blue 7.6% violet 19.2% mil spec 1.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt