---
title: "THE BOMB case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "THE BOMB ($2.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 57 items with odds, observed 84.11% over 11.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [THE BOMB](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · THE BOMB

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb?window=all)

Price · $2.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.19 from 57 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.11% · 11.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.57% ±9.04 1,576 openings

7 days · 84.44% ±3.55 10.1K openings

30 days · 84.11% ±3.33 11.4K openings

since tracking started · 84.11% ±3.33 11.4K openings

73.0% 82.8% 92.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb?window=24h) | 1,576 | 82.57% ±9.04 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb?window=7d) | 10.1K | 84.44% ±3.55 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb) | 11.4K | 84.11% ±3.33 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/the-bomb?window=all) | 11.4K | 84.11% ±3.33 | −1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 57 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 33,333 | $407 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 14,286 | $260 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $156 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $83.48 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $54.85 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $44.56 | 0.6% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.45× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 833 | $29.28 | 1.6% | 10 | 13.8 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $23.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $16.00 | 0.4% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $15.65 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $15.51 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $15.10 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $15.02 | 0.5% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $15.02 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $14.72 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 769 | $11.46 | 0.7% | 0 | 14.9 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $8.68 | 11.9% | 0 | 345.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 101 | $7.97 | 3.6% | 0 | 113.5 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $6.87 | 6.4% | 0 | 232.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 1 in 217 | $6.03 | 1.3% | 0 | 52.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $5.12 | 1.9% | 0 | 91.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $5.10 | 1.9% | 0 | 92.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $4.99 | 2.2% | 0 | 112.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 98 | $4.90 | 2.3% | 0 | 117.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $4.61 | 2.1% | 0 | 113.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $4.45 | 2.5% | 0 | 142.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $4.33 | 1.8% | 0 | 102.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $4.21 | 7.0% | 393 | 419.7 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $3.92 | 2.0% | 0 | 125.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $3.66 | 5.5% | 0 | 375.0 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.00 | 12.9% | 0 | 1078.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $2.92 | 1.8% | 0 | 158.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $2.78 | 3.7% | 0 | 334.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.97 | 3.8% | 473 | 478.2 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $1.67 | 1.1% | 0 | 172.0 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $1.65 | 0.7% | 0 | 108.9 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $1.53 | 0.2% | 0 | 40.1 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $1.36 | 0.8% | 0 | 149.1 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $1.30 | 0.8% | 0 | 159.4 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $1.27 | 0.8% | 0 | 166.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $1.22 | 0.7% | 0 | 149.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $1.19 | 1.4% | 0 | 295.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $0.93 | 0.9% | 0 | 229.4 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $0.86 | 0.4% | 0 | 104.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $0.83 | 0.9% | 0 | 275.2 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $0.66 | 0.4% | 0 | 153.7 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $0.63 | 0.4% | 0 | 168.6 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $0.47 | 0.5% | 0 | 264.9 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $0.44 | 0.5% | 0 | 294.7 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $0.44 | 0.5% | 0 | 299.3 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $0.43 | 0.5% | 0 | 305.0 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $0.41 | 0.6% | 0 | 340.6 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.41 | 0.5% | 0 | 334.9 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $0.41 | 0.5% | 0 | 334.9 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $0.40 | 0.6% | 0 | 354.4 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.40 | 0.6% | 0 | 354.4 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Splatter Cat charm · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-splatter-cat) | 16.0% | $0.20 | 1.5% | 1,876 | 1837.2 | 1.02× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/the-bomb`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.50 $156 62.32x 2026-11-06 22:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=the-bomb)

[USP-S | Black Lotus weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus) Hidden $2.50 $1.34 0.54x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[SG 553 | Pulse weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse) Hidden $2.50 $3.69 1.48x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[M249 | Downtown weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown) Hidden $2.50 $0.52 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[P90 | Neoqueen weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen) [L0tusek\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/L0tusek_) $2.50 $0.45 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love) Hidden $2.50 $4.00 1.60x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid) Hidden $2.50 $0.44 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[Charm | Splatter Cat charm · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-splatter-cat) Hidden $2.50 $0.20 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[M249 | Downtown weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown) [WENDIGO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WENDIGO) $2.50 $0.52 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus) Hidden $2.50 $5.76 2.30x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[Charm | Splatter Cat charm · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-splatter-cat) Hidden $2.50 $0.20 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2.50 | 86.78% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $2.50 | 86.82% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $2.50 | 86.59% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2.50 | 86.82% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2.50 | 86.59% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.50 | 87.68% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $2.50 | 87.58% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $2.50 | 87.75% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $2.50 | 87.27% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.50 | 87.45% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.50 | 87.82% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.98% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2.50 | 87.74% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $2.50 | 87.23% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $2.50 | 87.79% | 57 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $2.50 | 87.23% | 57 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% Ancient 0.0% classified 4.1% Mythical 0.1% restricted 9.0% Classified 1.8% pink 7.5% #d32ee6 1.0% Legendary 2.2% #8847ff 13.5% blue 21.8% violet 37.4% mil spec 1.3% best hit $156 (62.32x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt