--- title: "TIGER JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "TIGER JOKER ($172.31) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 8 items with odds, observed 87.78% over 435 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [TIGER JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · TIGER JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger-joker?window=all) Price · $172.31 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $150.77 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.78% · 435 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 44 openings · below min 7 days · 87.06% ±8.47 389 openings 30 days · 87.78% ±8.00 435 openings since tracking started · 87.78% ±8.00 435 openings 78.0% 108.0% 138.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger-joker?window=24h) | 44 | 112.16% ±25.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger-joker?window=7d) | 389 | 87.06% ±8.47 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger-joker) | 435 | 87.78% ±8.00 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger-joker?window=all) | 435 | 87.78% ±8.00 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 445 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 12.5% | $365 | 30.2% | 57 | 55.6 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $295 | 24.5% | 71 | 55.6 | 1.28× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 12.5% | $284 | 23.5% | 45 | 55.6 | 0.81× | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 12.5% | $236 | 19.5% | 49 | 55.6 | 0.88× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 12.5% | $20.99 | 1.7% | 55 | 55.6 | 0.99× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $4.54 | 0.4% | 56 | 55.6 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) | 12.5% | $0.69 | 0.1% | 61 | 55.6 | 1.10× | | [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 12.5% | $0.41 | 0.0% | 51 | 55.6 | 0.92× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/tiger-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=tiger-joker) [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) Hidden $169 $223 1.32x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $169 $4.10 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC [AK-47 | Panthera onca (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-minimal-wear) Hidden $169 $295 1.74x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) [EgyetlenDan1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/EgyetlenDan1) $169 $0.69 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) Hidden $169 $0.41 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [EgyetlenDan1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/EgyetlenDan1) $169 $284 1.68x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) Hidden $169 $0.41 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [AK-47 | Panthera onca (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-minimal-wear) [EgyetlenDan1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/EgyetlenDan1) $169 $295 1.74x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) Hidden $169 $284 1.68x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) [TwójStaryToCzołgskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Tw%C3%B3jStaryToCzo%C5%82gskins.army) $169 $223 1.32x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $172 | 87.50% | 8 | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $169 | 87.50% | 8 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $174 | 87.50% | 8 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $176 | 87.50% | 8 | | 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $178 | 87.50% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $176 | 87.50% | 8 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $178 | 87.50% | 8 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $178 | 87.50% | 8 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $178 | 87.50% | 8 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $178 | 87.50% | 8 | | 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $178 | 87.50% | 8 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $179 | 87.50% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 25.0% classified 12.5% red 12.5% pink 12.5% mil spec 12.5% restricted 12.5% violet 12.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt