--- title: "TIGER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "TIGER ($3.80) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.02% from 8 items with odds, observed 80.99% over 20.3K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [TIGER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · TIGER A case on Casehug (HIGH RISK), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger?window=all) Price · $3.80 Advertised RTP · 87.02% · EV $3.31 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.99% · 20.3K openings, odds method Variance · 29.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.50% ±20.36 2,797 openings 7 days · 77.77% ±8.20 17.5K openings 30 days · 80.99% ±7.60 20.3K openings since tracking started · 80.99% ±7.60 20.3K openings 66.5% 87.5% 108.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger?window=24h) | 2,797 | 87.50% ±20.4 | +0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger?window=7d) | 17.5K | 77.77% ±8.20 | −2.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger) | 20.3K | 80.99% ±7.60 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tiger?window=all) | 20.3K | 80.99% ±7.60 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20.3K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 602 | $357 | 17.9% | 29 | 33.8 | 0.86× | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-minimal-wear) | 1 in 980 | $295 | 9.1% | 24 | 20.7 | 1.16× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 893 | $284 | 9.6% | 12 | 22.8 | 0.53× | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 2,083 | $223 | 3.2% | 7 | 9.8 | 0.72× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $21.04 | 37.2% | 1,114 | 1187.9 | 0.94× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $4.10 | 11.2% | 1,554 | 1840.4 | 0.84× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) | 14.4% | $0.69 | 3.0% | 2,862 | 2934.8 | 0.98× | | [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 70.2% | $0.41 | 8.7% | 14,732 | 14283.8 | 1.03× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/tiger`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Raffell](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Raffell) $3.80 $373 98.16x 2026-11-03 19:49 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [MΛZI-\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M%CE%9BZI-_-) $3.80 $373 98.16x 2026-11-03 17:56 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Mcquenn](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Mcquenn) $3.80 $373 98.16x 2026-11-03 17:50 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [creedinho](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/creedinho) $3.80 $373 98.05x 2026-11-05 23:16 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $3.80 $369 97.05x 2026-11-07 11:57 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [El Kaniusio](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/El%20Kaniusio) $3.80 $369 97.05x 2026-11-07 09:02 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $3.80 $368 96.94x 2026-11-05 20:52 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [ambatakam](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ambatakam) $3.80 $368 96.94x 2026-11-05 16:39 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [BlindBoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BlindBoy) $3.80 $368 96.94x 2026-11-05 15:33 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [BynoxeCS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BynoxeCS2.ME) $3.80 $368 96.94x 2026-11-05 14:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=tiger) [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [☆му©κα☆](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%98%86%D0%BC%D1%83%C2%A9%CE%BA%CE%B1%E2%98%86) $3.80 $0.41 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [☆му©κα☆](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%98%86%D0%BC%D1%83%C2%A9%CE%BA%CE%B1%E2%98%86) $3.80 $0.41 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [☆му©κα☆](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%98%86%D0%BC%D1%83%C2%A9%CE%BA%CE%B1%E2%98%86) $3.80 $0.41 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [☆му©κα☆](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%98%86%D0%BC%D1%83%C2%A9%CE%BA%CE%B1%E2%98%86) $3.80 $0.41 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [Tomczak skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Tomczak%20skins.army) $3.80 $0.41 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [martasikk\_\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/martasikk__) $3.80 $0.41 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) Hidden $3.80 $0.41 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) Hidden $3.80 $0.41 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [RuJiRu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/RuJiRu) $3.80 $0.41 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) Hidden $3.80 $0.69 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $3.80 | 87.02% | 8 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $3.80 | 87.45% | 8 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $3.80 | 87.05% | 8 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $3.80 | 87.08% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $3.80 | 87.03% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $3.80 | 86.61% | 8 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $3.80 | 87.01% | 8 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $3.80 | 86.64% | 8 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $3.80 | 86.71% | 8 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3.80 | 87.03% | 8 | | 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $3.80 | 86.71% | 8 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $3.80 | 87.21% | 8 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.80 | 87.04% | 8 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $3.80 | 86.78% | 8 | | 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $3.80 | 87.03% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $3.80 | 87.04% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% classified 0.1% red 0.0% pink 5.8% mil spec 9.1% restricted 14.4% violet 70.2% best hit $373 (98.16x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.02 on average: an expected loss of $12.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt