---
title: "TOXIC JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "TOXIC JOKER ($102.22) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 79 items with odds, observed 86.73% over 3,341 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [TOXIC JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · TOXIC JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic-joker?window=all)

Price · $102.22

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $89.44 from 79 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.73% · 3,341 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 75.33% ±34.34 147 openings

7 days · 78.98% ±12.55 1,119 openings

30 days · 86.73% ±7.29 3,341 openings

since tracking started · 86.73% ±7.29 3,341 openings

40.5% 75.5% 110.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic-joker?window=24h) | 147 | 75.33% ±34.3 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic-joker?window=7d) | 1,119 | 78.98% ±12.5 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic-joker) | 3,341 | 86.73% ±7.29 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic-joker?window=all) | 3,341 | 86.73% ±7.29 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 79 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,354 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1,238 | 27.7% | 0 | 67.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $840 | 18.8% | 0 | 67.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $416 | 3.7% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 25 | $305 | 13.6% | 144 | 134.2 | 1.07× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $219 | 9.8% | 130 | 134.2 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $210 | 9.4% | 144 | 134.2 | 1.07× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 25 | $164 | 7.3% | 127 | 134.2 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $128 | 1.1% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $87.55 | 1.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $71.74 | 0.6% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $54.96 | 0.5% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $53.92 | 0.5% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $51.04 | 0.5% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $46.94 | 0.5% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $34.36 | 0.4% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $30.42 | 0.3% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $27.62 | 0.3% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $18.92 | 0.2% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $16.16 | 0.2% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $15.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $15.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $14.98 | 0.2% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $14.47 | 0.2% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $13.66 | 0.2% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $13.37 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $13.20 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $12.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $12.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $9.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $9.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $8.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $8.27 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $7.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $7.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $6.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $6.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $6.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $6.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $5.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $5.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $4.96 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.95 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $4.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4.60 | 0.1% | 0 | 67.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $4.57 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $4.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $4.35 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $3.59 | 0.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $3.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $3.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $3.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $3.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.49 | 0.1% | 0 | 67.1 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Magmatude charm · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-magmatude) | 1 in 25 | $2.22 | 0.1% | 145 | 134.2 | 1.08× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $1.88 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $1.81 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $1.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1.56 | 0.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $1.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $1.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.77 | 0.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $0.72 | 0.0% | 0 | 44.7 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.37 | 0.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $0.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $0.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $0.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 33.5 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/toxic-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web) [kick/Bookerowski](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kick%2FBookerowski) $106 $1,094 10.32x 2026-11-03 12:48 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web) [triple](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/triple) $106 $1,094 10.32x 2026-11-03 07:33 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web) [triple](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/triple) $106 $1,094 10.32x 2026-11-03 07:33 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web) Hidden $106 $1,094 10.32x 2026-11-03 07:33 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web) Hidden $106 $1,094 10.32x 2026-11-03 07:32 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web) Hidden $106 $1,094 10.32x 2026-11-02 23:42 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web) Hidden $106 $1,094 10.32x 2026-11-02 23:42 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web) Hidden $106 $1,094 10.32x 2026-11-02 23:40 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web) Hidden $106 $1,094 10.32x 2026-11-02 23:39 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web) Hidden $106 $1,094 10.32x 2026-11-02 23:39 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=toxic-joker)

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning) Hidden $102 $0.78 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Triumvirate weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate) Hidden $102 $2.27 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC

[Charm | Magmatude charm · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-magmatude) Hidden $102 $2.22 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts) [Mar\_Bat123 OsloRP](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Mar_Bat123%20OsloRP) $102 $5.15 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream) [code VESU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/code%20VESU) $102 $3.55 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Ventilators weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators) Hidden $102 $0.40 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite) Hidden $102 $18.98 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Eugeniusz Krab](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Eugeniusz%20Krab) $102 $305 2.98x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) Hidden $102 $6.39 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $102 $305 2.98x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $102 | 87.50% | 79 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $103 | 87.50% | 79 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $103 | 87.50% | 79 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $103 | 87.50% | 79 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $103 | 87.50% | 79 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $104 | 87.50% | 79 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $104 | 87.50% | 79 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $104 | 87.50% | 79 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $104 | 87.50% | 79 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $104 | 87.50% | 79 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $104 | 87.50% | 79 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $105 | 87.50% | 79 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 79 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 1.0% covert 24.0% red 6.0% classified 9.6% Ancient 1.0% #eb4b4b 1.0% Legendary 4.8% restricted 13.7% pink 4.5% #d32ee6 2.8% uncommon 1.3% Classified 1.0% violet 9.0% mil spec 9.2% Mythical 2.3% #8847ff 6.0% blue 2.8% best hit $1,094 (10.32x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt