---
title: "TOXIC case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "TOXIC ($2.60) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 79 items with odds, observed 84.63% over 31.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [TOXIC](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · TOXIC

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic?window=all)

Price · $2.60

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.27 from 79 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.63% · 31.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 10.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.77% ±11.89 2,779 openings

7 days · 85.55% ±4.44 20.4K openings

30 days · 84.63% ±3.58 31.8K openings

since tracking started · 84.63% ±3.58 31.8K openings

69.0% 81.7% 94.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic?window=24h) | 2,779 | 81.77% ±11.9 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic?window=7d) | 20.4K | 85.55% ±4.44 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic) | 31.8K | 84.63% ±3.58 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/toxic?window=all) | 31.8K | 84.63% ±3.58 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 79 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,238 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $840 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $411 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $309 | 1.4% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.25× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $219 | 1.4% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.42× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $210 | 1.6% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 3,333 | $164 | 2.2% | 12 | 9.6 | 1.25× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $128 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $87.84 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $71.74 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $54.96 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25,000 | $53.92 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $51.04 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $44.56 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $34.36 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $28.27 | 0.4% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $27.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $19.78 | 0.3% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $16.00 | 0.2% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $15.68 | 0.2% | 0 | 9.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $15.10 | 0.3% | 0 | 12.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,500 | $15.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 12.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $14.72 | 0.3% | 0 | 12.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $13.85 | 0.4% | 0 | 19.2 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $13.66 | 0.2% | 0 | 12.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $13.65 | 0.4% | 0 | 19.2 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $12.91 | 0.2% | 0 | 12.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $12.13 | 0.3% | 0 | 16.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $9.77 | 0.2% | 0 | 12.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 213 | $8.90 | 1.8% | 0 | 150.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 149 | $8.73 | 2.6% | 0 | 214.3 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 270 | $8.70 | 1.4% | 0 | 118.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $6.74 | 3.3% | 0 | 358.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 141 | $6.73 | 2.1% | 0 | 227.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $6.67 | 2.9% | 0 | 319.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $6.67 | 2.9% | 0 | 319.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $6.43 | 2.1% | 0 | 239.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 132 | $5.88 | 2.0% | 0 | 243.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $5.56 | 2.1% | 0 | 271.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $4.99 | 2.0% | 0 | 287.8 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $4.95 | 1.7% | 0 | 255.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $4.94 | 2.3% | 0 | 342.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $4.90 | 2.0% | 0 | 297.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103 | $4.73 | 2.0% | 0 | 310.2 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $4.60 | 2.7% | 0 | 422.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $4.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $4.45 | 2.2% | 0 | 361.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $4.43 | 3.5% | 0 | 578.8 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $3.59 | 4.7% | 0 | 959.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $3.50 | 5.4% | 0 | 1122.5 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $3.38 | 5.0% | 0 | 1080.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.30 | 5.7% | 0 | 1263.2 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $3.12 | 3.4% | 0 | 796.3 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $2.48 | 2.5% | 0 | 719.5 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Magmatude charm · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-magmatude) | 1 in 27 | $2.22 | 3.6% | 1,184 | 1186.4 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $1.82 | 1.3% | 0 | 514.9 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $1.81 | 1.3% | 0 | 521.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $1.58 | 0.9% | 0 | 396.5 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 169 | $1.56 | 0.4% | 0 | 188.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $1.24 | 1.0% | 0 | 585.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $1.14 | 1.0% | 0 | 668.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $0.83 | 0.8% | 0 | 671.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $0.80 | 0.8% | 0 | 709.9 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $0.77 | 0.6% | 0 | 582.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $0.72 | 0.8% | 0 | 841.0 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $0.67 | 0.7% | 0 | 725.9 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $0.64 | 0.7% | 0 | 780.3 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $0.44 | 0.4% | 0 | 703.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $0.41 | 0.3% | 0 | 466.9 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.40 | 0.5% | 0 | 818.7 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.38 | 0.5% | 0 | 889.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $0.37 | 0.5% | 0 | 927.4 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.31 | 0.4% | 0 | 949.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $0.30 | 0.3% | 0 | 770.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 815.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $0.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 815.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.23 | 0.5% | 0 | 1528.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $0.23 | 0.4% | 0 | 1180.0 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.18 | 0.6% | 0 | 2264.1 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/toxic`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web) [can0uz\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/can0uz%60) $2.60 $1,010 388.6x 2026-11-05 01:46 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [yt.com/dominoitaliano](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/yt.com%2Fdominoitaliano) $2.60 $321 123.5x 2026-11-03 00:24 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2.60 $313 120.5x 2026-11-08 19:38 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2.60 $312 120.0x 2026-11-05 11:28 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [10/10 bop](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/10%2F10%20bop) $2.60 $310 119.4x 2026-11-06 11:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) [chillmatesix](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/chillmatesix) $2.60 $222 85.38x 2026-11-04 10:46 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $2.60 $222 85.33x 2026-11-07 18:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) Hidden $2.60 $221 84.87x 2026-11-04 21:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) [emeal](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/emeal) $2.60 $220 84.66x 2026-11-02 23:47 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $2.60 $220 84.62x 2026-11-08 21:47 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=toxic)

[MP9 | Modest Threat weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat) Hidden $2.60 $0.29 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[MP9 | Modest Threat weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat) Hidden $2.60 $0.29 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts) Hidden $2.60 $3.89 1.50x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fubar weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar) [Almen](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Almen) $2.60 $0.23 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Triumvirate weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate) [Kaprix skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kaprix%20skins.army) $2.60 $2.38 0.92x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fubar weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar) Hidden $2.60 $0.23 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper) Hidden $2.60 $1.28 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning) [XntS\_1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XntS_1) $2.60 $0.78 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[P2000 | Acid Etched weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched) [Martinogit](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Martinogit) $2.60 $0.76 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[P2000 | Acid Etched weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched) [Martinogit](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Martinogit) $2.60 $0.76 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2.60 | 87.50% | 79 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2.60 | 87.34% | 79 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2.60 | 87.44% | 79 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2.60 | 87.29% | 79 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2.60 | 87.19% | 79 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $2.60 | 87.49% | 79 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $2.60 | 87.51% | 79 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $2.60 | 87.00% | 79 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $2.60 | 87.51% | 79 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.60 | 87.59% | 79 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $2.60 | 86.99% | 79 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2.60 | 87.23% | 79 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.60 | 87.51% | 79 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $2.60 | 86.74% | 79 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $2.60 | 87.70% | 79 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $2.60 | 87.36% | 79 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 0.6% covert 0.1% red 0.2% classified 1.1% Ancient 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% Legendary 3.2% pink 4.4% restricted 20.0% uncommon 1.1% #d32ee6 3.0% Classified 0.8% violet 10.2% mil spec 30.1% Mythical 5.8% #8847ff 11.7% blue 7.9% best hit $1,010 (388.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt