---
title: "TREAT INSIDE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "TREAT INSIDE JOKER ($71.97) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 40 items with odds, observed 88.96% over 8,559 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [TREAT INSIDE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · TREAT INSIDE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside-joker?window=all)

Price · $71.97

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $62.97 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.96% · 8,559 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 89.35% ±4.41 6,414 openings

30 days · 88.96% ±3.81 8,559 openings

since tracking started · 88.96% ±3.81 8,559 openings

84.5% 89.5% 94.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside-joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside-joker?window=7d) | 6,414 | 89.35% ±4.41 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside-joker) | 8,559 | 88.96% ±3.81 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside-joker?window=all) | 8,559 | 88.96% ±3.81 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,575 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 28 | $533 | 30.2% | 332 | 306.2 | 1.08× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 28 | $403 | 22.9% | 306 | 306.2 | 1.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $339 | 9.6% | 0 | 153.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $305 | 8.6% | 0 | 153.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $109 | 6.2% | 307 | 306.2 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $101 | 2.9% | 0 | 153.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $90.65 | 2.6% | 0 | 153.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $82.03 | 1.2% | 0 | 76.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $69.44 | 1.0% | 0 | 76.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $68.85 | 1.0% | 0 | 76.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $65.33 | 0.9% | 0 | 76.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $63.19 | 0.9% | 0 | 76.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $55.49 | 0.8% | 0 | 76.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $55.16 | 0.8% | 0 | 76.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $50.40 | 0.7% | 0 | 76.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $35.27 | 1.0% | 0 | 153.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $31.42 | 0.4% | 0 | 76.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $27.31 | 0.8% | 0 | 153.1 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $18.62 | 1.1% | 312 | 306.2 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $17.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 76.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $14.21 | 0.8% | 313 | 306.2 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $13.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 76.6 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $12.26 | 0.7% | 282 | 306.2 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $10.77 | 0.2% | 0 | 76.6 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $10.27 | 0.6% | 307 | 306.2 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $10.27 | 0.6% | 303 | 306.2 | 0.99× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $9.38 | 0.5% | 332 | 306.2 | 1.08× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $7.27 | 0.4% | 296 | 306.2 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) | 1 in 28 | $6.44 | 0.4% | 298 | 306.3 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $5.11 | 0.3% | 295 | 306.3 | 0.96× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $4.45 | 0.3% | 331 | 306.3 | 1.08× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $4.21 | 0.2% | 314 | 306.3 | 1.03× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $4.19 | 0.2% | 302 | 306.3 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $3.11 | 0.2% | 291 | 306.3 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) | 1 in 28 | $3.09 | 0.2% | 292 | 306.3 | 0.95× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.48 | 0.1% | 323 | 306.3 | 1.05× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.43 | 0.1% | 312 | 306.3 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Bolt Strike (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-strike-foil) | 1 in 28 | $1.95 | 0.1% | 304 | 306.3 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.93 | 0.1% | 284 | 306.3 | 0.93× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) | 1 in 28 | $1.91 | 0.1% | 343 | 306.3 | 1.12× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/treat-inside-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $71.93 $534 7.42x 2026-11-09 03:36 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [twitch.tv/agiie](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/twitch.tv%2Fagiie) $71.93 $534 7.42x 2026-11-09 03:36 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [PinEight](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PinEight) $71.93 $534 7.42x 2026-11-09 03:35 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [1311121](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/1311121) $71.93 $534 7.42x 2026-11-09 02:18 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [1311121](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/1311121) $71.93 $534 7.42x 2026-11-09 02:17 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $71.93 $534 7.42x 2026-11-09 02:10 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $71.98 $534 7.41x 2026-11-08 23:29 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $71.98 $534 7.41x 2026-11-08 21:57 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $71.98 $534 7.41x 2026-11-08 21:30 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [n1xe.](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/n1xe.) $71.98 $534 7.41x 2026-11-08 20:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=treat-inside-joker)

[★ Bayonet | Autotronic knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic) Hidden $71.97 $322 4.47x 2026-11-09 21:03 UTC

[P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) Hidden $71.97 $18.62 0.26x 2026-11-09 21:03 UTC

[Sticker | Bolt Strike (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-strike-foil) Hidden $71.97 $1.95 0.03x 2026-11-09 21:03 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Autotronic knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic) [Trelemoreleskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Trelemoreleskins.army) $71.97 $322 4.47x 2026-11-09 21:03 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) Hidden $71.97 $12.26 0.17x 2026-11-09 20:59 UTC

[MP7 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) Hidden $71.97 $1.93 0.03x 2026-11-09 20:59 UTC

[P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) [łap do pyska CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%C5%82ap%20do%20pyska%20CS2.ME) $71.97 $3.11 0.04x 2026-11-09 20:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) [piotr penetracja CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/piotr%20penetracja%20CS2.ME) $71.97 $14.21 0.20x 2026-11-09 20:54 UTC

[FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) [piotr penetracja CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/piotr%20penetracja%20CS2.ME) $71.97 $7.27 0.10x 2026-11-09 20:53 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) Hidden $71.97 $10.27 0.14x 2026-11-09 20:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $71.97 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $72.13 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $71.93 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $71.98 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $71.93 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $71.77 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $71.93 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $71.90 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $71.92 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $71.90 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $72.70 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $71.92 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $72.70 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $72.25 | 87.49% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $73.28 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $71.87 | 87.51% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 16.1% gold 3.6% red 8.0% Ancient 0.9% pink 7.1% violet 14.3% blue 25.0% light blue 3.6% gray 7.1% blueLight 3.6% consumer 3.6% #d32ce6 7.1% best hit $534 (7.42x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt