---
title: "TREAT INSIDE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "TREAT INSIDE ($5.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.94% from 40 items with odds, observed 86.20% over 152K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [TREAT INSIDE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · TREAT INSIDE

A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 87.94% · EV $4.40 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.20% · 152K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 86.15% ±0.76 118K openings

30 days · 86.20% ±0.67 152K openings

since tracking started · 86.20% ±0.67 152K openings

84.5% 86.5% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.83% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.54% – 86.87%, 152,044 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside?window=7d) | 118K | 86.15% ±0.76 | −4.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside) | 152K | 86.20% ±0.67 | −4.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/treat-inside?window=all) | 152K | 86.20% ±0.67 | −4.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33,333 | $533 | 0.4% | 1 | 4.6 | 0.22× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 14,286 | $403 | 0.6% | 7 | 10.7 | 0.66× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $339 | 0.4% | 0 | 7.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $305 | 0.3% | 0 | 7.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $109 | 0.2% | 18 | 15.2 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $102 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $96.89 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $85.82 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $68.85 | 0.1% | 0 | 10.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $68.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 10.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $67.21 | 0.2% | 0 | 15.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $62.85 | 0.1% | 0 | 15.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $56.37 | 0.1% | 0 | 15.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $53.84 | 0.2% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $49.45 | 0.2% | 0 | 30.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $30.63 | 0.1% | 0 | 15.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $30.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 30.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $26.87 | 0.2% | 0 | 45.7 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 256 | $18.38 | 1.6% | 437 | 594.6 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 345 | $17.38 | 1.1% | 0 | 442.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $13.63 | 4.5% | 1,504 | 2226.1 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $13.22 | 1.5% | 0 | 762.4 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $12.47 | 4.8% | 1,503 | 2592.0 | 0.58× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $12.26 | 4.8% | 3,040 | 2637.7 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $10.77 | 2.0% | 0 | 1219.8 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $10.27 | 4.8% | 3,188 | 3140.9 | 1.02× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $9.38 | 4.8% | 3,585 | 3445.8 | 1.04× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $7.27 | 7.0% | 5,753 | 6449.5 | 0.89× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) | 1 in 21 | $6.35 | 7.0% | 7,458 | 7394.8 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.11 | 7.0% | 8,929 | 9193.9 | 0.97× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $4.45 | 6.0% | 9,194 | 9072.0 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $3.81 | 5.5% | 9,954 | 9636.1 | 1.03× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $3.29 | 5.0% | 9,650 | 10200.2 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) | 1 in 14 | $3.09 | 4.9% | 10,985 | 10535.7 | 1.04× |
| [P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.52 | 4.3% | 10,799 | 11435.3 | 0.94× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.48 | 4.2% | 12,164 | 11435.3 | 1.06× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.43 | 4.2% | 11,812 | 11542.0 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Bolt Strike (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-strike-foil) | 1 in 12 | $1.95 | 3.7% | 13,383 | 12670.3 | 1.06× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $1.91 | 3.6% | 13,184 | 12777.0 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) | 1 in 12 | $1.91 | 3.6% | 13,694 | 12777.0 | 1.07× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/treat-inside`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [PACIU#1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PACIU%231) $5.00 $534 106.7x 2026-11-06 21:34 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5.00 $417 83.46x 2026-11-03 16:25 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5.00 $405 80.93x 2026-11-07 15:49 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5.00 $404 80.80x 2026-11-07 05:35 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5.00 $403 80.69x 2026-11-09 20:26 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5.00 $403 80.51x 2026-11-03 23:20 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [CGUN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CGUN) $5.00 $398 79.52x 2026-11-04 21:30 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5.00 $398 79.52x 2026-11-04 19:13 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Autotronic knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic) [Śruba](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%C5%9Aruba) $5.00 $335 67.05x 2026-11-03 15:02 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Autotronic knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic) [KaMkA97](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KaMkA97) $5.00 $327 65.45x 2026-11-08 21:52 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=treat-inside)

[Sticker | First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) Hidden $5.00 $3.09 0.62x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $12.26 2.45x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $2.43 0.49x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[MP7 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) [DMBosski](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/DMBosski) $5.00 $1.91 0.38x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[Sticker | First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) Hidden $5.00 $3.09 0.62x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $2.43 0.49x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) [jebac marka maruche CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/jebac%20marka%20maruche%20CSGOSKINS) $5.00 $3.81 0.76x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[Sticker | First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) Hidden $5.00 $3.09 0.62x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[MP7 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $1.91 0.38x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) [jebac marka maruche CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/jebac%20marka%20maruche%20CSGOSKINS) $5.00 $2.52 0.50x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $5.00 | 87.94% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $5.00 | 87.78% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $5.00 | 87.70% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.72% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $5.00 | 87.85% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $5.00 | 87.77% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $5.00 | 87.51% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $5.00 | 87.81% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $5.00 | 87.77% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $5.00 | 87.67% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.00 | 88.10% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $5.00 | 87.91% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $5.00 | 88.14% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $5.00 | 88.02% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% gold 0.0% red 0.1% Ancient 0.0% pink 7.9% violet 12.7% light blue 1.7% blue 32.3% gray 14.3% blueLight 6.7% consumer 7.5% #d32ce6 16.7% best hit $534 (106.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.94 on average: an expected loss of $12.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt