---
title: "TUNG TUNG JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "TUNG TUNG JOKER ($40.41) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 47 items with odds, observed 83.60% over 1,800 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tung-tung-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T07:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [TUNG TUNG JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tung-tung-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · TUNG TUNG JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tung-tung-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tung-tung-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tung-tung-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tung-tung-joker?window=all)

Price · $40.41

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $35.36 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.60% · 1,800 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.18% ±25.52 180 openings

7 days · 79.19% ±9.39 1,351 openings

30 days · 83.60% ±8.16 1,800 openings

since tracking started · 83.60% ±8.16 1,800 openings

62.0% 88.3% 114.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tung-tung-joker?window=24h) | 180 | 88.18% ±25.5 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tung-tung-joker?window=7d) | 1,351 | 79.19% ±9.39 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tung-tung-joker) | 1,800 | 83.60% ±8.16 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/tung-tung-joker?window=all) | 1,800 | 83.60% ±8.16 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,807 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $268 | 36.0% | 76 | 86.0 | 0.88× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $196 | 26.4% | 95 | 86.0 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $102 | 13.8% | 93 | 86.0 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $65.71 | 8.8% | 64 | 86.0 | 0.74× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $57.05 | 7.7% | 81 | 86.0 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $23.85 | 3.2% | 76 | 86.0 | 0.88× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $12.06 | 0.8% | 0 | 43.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $5.57 | 0.2% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $4.88 | 0.3% | 0 | 43.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $4.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $4.36 | 0.2% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $4.24 | 0.3% | 0 | 43.0 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $4.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 43.0 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $2.82 | 0.4% | 85 | 86.0 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $2.78 | 0.1% | 0 | 17.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $1.90 | 0.1% | 0 | 43.0 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $1.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $1.51 | 0.2% | 76 | 86.0 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $1.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $1.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $1.24 | 0.1% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $1.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $1.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $1.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 43.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 17.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $0.96 | 0.1% | 0 | 43.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $0.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $0.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 43.0 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $0.84 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $0.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $0.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $0.54 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $0.54 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $0.54 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $0.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $0.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 43.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 17.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 43.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 17.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 17.2 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/tung-tung-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=tung-tung-joker)

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $40.41 $102 2.53x 2026-11-12 00:37 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother) Hidden $40.41 $0.68 0.02x 2026-11-12 00:37 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) [Myکτicツ“skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/My%DA%A9%CF%84ic%E3%83%84%E2%80%9Cskins.army%E2%80%9D) $40.41 $2.82 0.07x 2026-11-12 00:37 UTC

[MAG-7 | Core Breach weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach) Hidden $40.41 $8.47 0.21x 2026-11-11 23:51 UTC

[MP7 | Just Smile weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile) Hidden $40.41 $1.01 0.02x 2026-11-11 23:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $40.41 $102 2.53x 2026-11-11 23:51 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) [Kilo penta](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kilo%20penta) $40.41 $196 4.84x 2026-11-11 23:51 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $40.41 $196 4.84x 2026-11-11 23:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) [Pietek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Pietek) $40.41 $57.05 1.41x 2026-11-11 23:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike) Hidden $40.41 $1.43 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC | $40.41 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $39.52 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $41.17 | 87.49% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $39.59 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $40.85 | 87.51% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $39.59 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $39.17 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $40.85 | 87.51% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $41.13 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $41.00 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $41.05 | 87.51% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $40.67 | 87.49% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $41.00 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $41.56 | 87.49% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $40.86 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $41.43 | 87.49% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $41.28 | 87.49% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 19.0% extraordinary 4.8% classified 4.8% #8847ff 13.5% restricted 14.3% pink 7.1% Legendary 2.4% violet 20.1% uncommon 2.4% Mythical 11.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt