---
title: "USP-S JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "USP-S JOKER ($28.12) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.52% from 94 items with odds, observed 86.56% over 4,776 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/usp-s-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [USP-S JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/usp-s-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · USP-S JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/usp-s-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/usp-s-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/usp-s-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/usp-s-joker?window=all)

Price · $28.12

Advertised RTP · 87.52% · EV $24.61 from 94 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.56% · 4,776 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.79% ±10.68 530 openings

7 days · 86.44% ±3.83 4,052 openings

30 days · 86.56% ±3.52 4,776 openings

since tracking started · 86.56% ±3.52 4,776 openings

78.5% 89.8% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/usp-s-joker?window=24h) | 530 | 89.79% ±10.7 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/usp-s-joker?window=7d) | 4,052 | 86.44% ±3.83 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/usp-s-joker) | 4,776 | 86.56% ±3.52 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/usp-s-joker?window=all) | 4,776 | 86.56% ±3.52 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 94 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,784 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 104 | $147 | 5.7% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $138 | 5.4% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $135 | 5.3% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $135 | 5.3% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $98.90 | 15.5% | 166 | 184.0 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 104 | $74.94 | 2.9% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $73.01 | 11.4% | 168 | 184.0 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $59.73 | 9.3% | 192 | 184.0 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $58.64 | 3.1% | 0 | 61.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $47.44 | 2.5% | 0 | 61.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $44.54 | 2.3% | 0 | 61.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $40.55 | 2.1% | 0 | 61.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $40.42 | 2.1% | 0 | 61.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $38.75 | 2.0% | 0 | 61.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $38.50 | 3.0% | 0 | 92.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $36.89 | 1.9% | 0 | 61.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $35.83 | 1.4% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $33.09 | 5.2% | 154 | 184.0 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $32.81 | 5.1% | 175 | 184.0 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $24.02 | 0.8% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $23.06 | 0.9% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $22.47 | 0.9% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $18.53 | 0.6% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $17.03 | 0.7% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $8.06 | 0.4% | 0 | 61.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $7.15 | 0.2% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $6.91 | 0.2% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $6.59 | 0.5% | 0 | 92.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $5.80 | 0.2% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $5.69 | 0.2% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $5.55 | 0.2% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $5.13 | 0.2% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 104 | $4.90 | 0.2% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $4.68 | 0.2% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $4.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $4.24 | 0.1% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $4.16 | 0.2% | 0 | 61.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $4.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $4.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $3.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $3.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $2.85 | 0.1% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $2.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 104 | $2.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $1.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $1.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 61.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $1.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $1.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $1.25 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $1.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $1.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $1.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $1.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $1.07 | 0.0% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $0.92 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 61.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $0.75 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $0.73 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $0.70 | 0.0% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $0.70 | 0.0% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $0.63 | 0.0% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $0.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $0.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 61.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $0.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $0.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $0.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $0.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $0.34 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $0.31 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $0.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $0.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $0.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $0.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $0.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 36.8 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/usp-s-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=usp-s-joker)

[USP-S | 27 weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27) Hidden $28.12 $1.41 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

[USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) [\_Makłowicz \_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_Mak%C5%82owicz%20_skins.army) $28.12 $73.01 2.60x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

[USP-S | Silent Shot weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot) Hidden $28.12 $0.68 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $28.12 $32.81 1.17x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) [❤ Gamble ❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%9D%A4%20Gamble%20%E2%9D%A4) $28.12 $59.73 2.12x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell) Hidden $28.12 $1.16 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC

[USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.12 $59.73 2.12x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir) Hidden $28.12 $139 4.93x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback) [M3L3R](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M3L3R) $28.12 $1.74 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC

[USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $28.12 $32.81 1.17x 2026-11-11 19:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $28.12 | 87.52% | 94 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $28.41 | 87.48% | 94 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $28.42 | 87.50% | 94 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $28.12 | 87.50% | 94 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $28.71 | 87.51% | 94 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $28.12 | 87.50% | 94 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $28.40 | 87.49% | 94 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $28.91 | 87.49% | 94 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $28.72 | 87.50% | 94 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $28.91 | 87.49% | 94 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $28.52 | 87.50% | 94 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $28.80 | 87.49% | 94 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $28.86 | 87.49% | 94 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $28.80 | 87.49% | 94 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $28.71 | 87.51% | 94 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $28.80 | 87.49% | 94 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $28.85 | 87.50% | 94 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $28.84 | 87.50% | 94 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $28.85 | 87.50% | 94 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $28.80 | 87.50% | 94 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $28.77 | 87.50% | 94 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $29.09 | 87.49% | 94 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $29.23 | 87.51% | 94 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 9.0% classified 15.2% restricted 14.0% red 1.3% Ancient 1.3% mil spec 15.6% pink 4.0% industrial 3.1% Mythical 5.8% blue 10.0% Restricted 1.0% Rare 5.1% uncommon 1.5% #4b69ff 6.2% violet 0.8% milspec 1.5% Uncommon 0.8% light blue 0.8% blueLight 1.5% #87c7ff 1.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.52 on average: an expected loss of $12.48 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt