---
title: "WAR GOD JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "WAR GOD JOKER ($105.55) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.40% from 56 items with odds, observed 97.57% over 1,204 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/war-god-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [WAR GOD JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/war-god-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · WAR GOD JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/war-god-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/war-god-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/war-god-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/war-god-joker?window=all)

Price · $105.55

Advertised RTP · 88.40% · EV $93.31 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.57% · 1,204 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.27% ±29.54 126 openings

7 days · 95.33% ±10.31 1,008 openings

30 days · 97.57% ±9.43 1,204 openings

since tracking started · 97.57% ±9.43 1,204 openings

67.0% 97.2% 127.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.50% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (88.14% – 107.01%, 1,204 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/war-god-joker?window=24h) | 126 | 97.27% ±29.5 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/war-god-joker?window=7d) | 1,008 | 95.33% ±10.3 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/war-god-joker) | 1,204 | 97.57% ±9.43 | +2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/war-god-joker?window=all) | 1,204 | 97.57% ±9.43 | +2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,208 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $719 | 35.0% | 71 | 54.9 | 1.29× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $458 | 22.3% | 47 | 54.9 | 0.86× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $354 | 17.2% | 68 | 54.9 | 1.24× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $156 | 7.6% | 58 | 54.9 | 1.06× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $114 | 5.6% | 52 | 54.9 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $77.56 | 0.9% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $75.37 | 0.9% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $71.65 | 0.9% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $69.34 | 0.8% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $66.08 | 0.8% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $56.83 | 0.7% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $54.60 | 0.7% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $44.72 | 0.5% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $43.36 | 2.1% | 69 | 54.9 | 1.26× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $37.47 | 1.8% | 63 | 54.9 | 1.15× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $24.63 | 0.3% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $16.51 | 0.2% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $15.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $14.65 | 0.2% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $9.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $7.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $6.98 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $6.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $6.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $4.77 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $4.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $4.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $3.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $3.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $3.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Chrome Dome (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome-holo) | 1 in 22 | $2.77 | 0.1% | 42 | 54.9 | 0.76× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $2.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $2.33 | 0.1% | 57 | 54.9 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $1.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $0.99 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $0.99 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $0.87 | 0.0% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $0.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) | 1 in 22 | $0.69 | 0.0% | 49 | 54.9 | 0.89× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $0.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $0.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $0.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $0.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $0.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $0.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 56 | 54.9 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 13.7 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.38 | 0.0% | 56 | 54.9 | 1.02× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/war-god-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $106 $719 6.81x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $106 $719 6.81x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $106 $719 6.81x 2026-11-11 21:58 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $106 $719 6.81x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $106 $719 6.81x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $106 $719 6.81x 2026-11-11 21:01 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Cabbarrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Cabbarrr) $106 $719 6.81x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $111 $712 6.42x 2026-11-03 23:20 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [GRU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GRU) $111 $712 6.42x 2026-11-03 22:40 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [GRU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GRU) $111 $712 6.42x 2026-11-03 22:39 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=war-god-joker)

[★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $106 $458 4.34x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy) Hidden $106 $5.18 0.05x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $106 $114 1.08x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $106 $1.24 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) Hidden $106 $43.36 0.41x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf) Hidden $106 $0.56 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) Hidden $106 $2.33 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $106 $1.24 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy) Hidden $106 $5.18 0.05x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

[Sticker | High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) Hidden $106 $0.69 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $106 | 88.40% | 56 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $106 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $107 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $110 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $109 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $111 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $110 | 87.50% | 56 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 4.5% extraordinary 4.5% covert 22.7% red 4.5% Ancient 4.5% classified 5.7% Legendary 2.3% pink 3.4% #d32ee6 2.3% #8847ff 6.6% Mythical 3.0% violet 17.7% blue 11.8% mil spec 0.9% #4b69ff 0.9% gray 4.5% best hit $719 (6.81x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.40 on average: an expected loss of $11.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt