---
title: "WAVE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "WAVE JOKER ($3.35) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.44% from 30 items with odds, observed 85.26% over 36.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [WAVE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · WAVE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave-joker?window=all)

Price · $3.35

Advertised RTP · 87.44% · EV $2.93 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.26% · 36.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.40% ±4.03 5,216 openings

7 days · 85.67% ±1.63 31.3K openings

30 days · 85.26% ±1.50 36.9K openings

since tracking started · 85.26% ±1.50 36.9K openings

78.5% 83.5% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.50% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.77% – 86.76%, 36,878 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave-joker?window=24h) | 5,216 | 83.40% ±4.03 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave-joker?window=7d) | 31.3K | 85.67% ±1.63 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave-joker) | 36.9K | 85.26% ±1.50 | −2.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave-joker?window=all) | 36.9K | 85.26% ±1.50 | −2.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) | 1 in 30 | $23.90 | 27.2% | 1,157 | 1229.7 | 0.94× |
| [Sticker \| Blaze Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blaze-surf-k-foil) | 1 in 30 | $13.37 | 15.2% | 1,209 | 1229.7 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Great Wave (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave-holo) | 1 in 30 | $8.46 | 9.6% | 1,208 | 1229.7 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii T (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-t-holo) | 1 in 30 | $8.32 | 9.5% | 1,155 | 1229.7 | 0.94× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) | 1 in 30 | $6.30 | 7.2% | 1,224 | 1229.7 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| V For Victory (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v-for-victory-holo) | 1 in 30 | $5.87 | 6.7% | 1,211 | 1229.7 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Unicorn (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-unicorn-holo) | 1 in 30 | $2.85 | 3.2% | 1,209 | 1229.7 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Salty (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-salty-holo) | 1 in 30 | $2.65 | 3.0% | 1,254 | 1229.7 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Sherry (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sherry-holo) | 1 in 30 | $2.19 | 2.5% | 1,247 | 1229.7 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| T Rush (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-t-rush-holo) | 1 in 30 | $1.59 | 1.8% | 1,219 | 1229.7 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Cbbl (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cbbl-holo) | 1 in 30 | $1.35 | 1.5% | 1,185 | 1229.7 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Coiled Strike (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coiled-strike-holo) | 1 in 30 | $1.35 | 1.5% | 1,249 | 1229.7 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Mastermind (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mastermind-holo) | 1 in 30 | $1.21 | 1.4% | 1,282 | 1229.7 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) | 1 in 30 | $1.15 | 1.3% | 1,224 | 1229.7 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Nice Clutch (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nice-clutch-holo) | 1 in 30 | $0.98 | 1.1% | 1,199 | 1229.7 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| One Sting (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-sting-holo) | 1 in 30 | $0.94 | 1.1% | 1,256 | 1229.7 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Combine Helmet (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-combine-helmet-holo) | 1 in 30 | $0.84 | 1.0% | 1,301 | 1229.7 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Get Smoked (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-get-smoked-holo) | 1 in 30 | $0.77 | 0.9% | 1,240 | 1229.7 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Ace Clutch Co. (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ace-clutch-co-holo) | 1 in 30 | $0.52 | 0.6% | 1,234 | 1229.7 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Cyber Chicken (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cyber-chicken-holo) | 1 in 30 | $0.48 | 0.5% | 1,228 | 1229.7 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Conspiracy Club (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-conspiracy-club-holo) | 1 in 30 | $0.34 | 0.4% | 1,220 | 1230.1 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Toxic sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toxic) | 1 in 30 | $0.32 | 0.4% | 1,235 | 1230.1 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Go Boom (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-go-boom-glitter) | 1 in 30 | $0.32 | 0.4% | 1,242 | 1230.1 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Longevity sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-longevity) | 1 in 30 | $0.31 | 0.4% | 1,264 | 1230.1 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Door Stuck (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-door-stuck-foil) | 1 in 30 | $0.31 | 0.4% | 1,238 | 1230.1 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Guinea Pig (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-guinea-pig-holo) | 1 in 30 | $0.26 | 0.3% | 1,209 | 1230.1 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Heresy sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-heresy) | 1 in 30 | $0.26 | 0.3% | 1,219 | 1230.1 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Speedy T sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-speedy-t) | 1 in 30 | $0.24 | 0.3% | 1,234 | 1230.1 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Move It sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-move-it) | 1 in 30 | $0.24 | 0.3% | 1,309 | 1230.1 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Fancy Koi sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi) | 1 in 30 | $0.20 | 0.2% | 1,234 | 1230.1 | 1.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/wave-joker`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=wave-joker)

[Sticker | Mastermind (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mastermind-holo) Hidden $3.30 $1.16 0.35x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[Sticker | Mastermind (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mastermind-holo) Hidden $3.30 $1.16 0.35x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[Sticker | Fancy Koi sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi) [Murzynowski](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Murzynowski) $3.30 $0.21 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[Sticker | Cyber Chicken (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cyber-chicken-holo) Hidden $3.30 $0.48 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[Sticker | Door Stuck (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-door-stuck-foil) Hidden $3.30 $0.29 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[Sticker | Coiled Strike (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coiled-strike-holo) Hidden $3.30 $1.35 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[Sticker | Heresy sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-heresy) [76561198873783019](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/76561198873783019) $3.30 $0.26 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[Sticker | Mastermind (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mastermind-holo) Hidden $3.30 $1.16 0.35x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC

[Sticker | V For Victory (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v-for-victory-holo) Hidden $3.30 $6.49 1.97x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC

[Sticker | Speedy T sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-speedy-t) [Murzynowski](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Murzynowski) $3.30 $0.24 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $3.35 | 87.44% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $3.37 | 87.53% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $3.39 | 87.54% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $3.37 | 87.47% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $3.39 | 87.41% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $3.37 | 87.61% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $3.38 | 87.58% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $3.24 | 87.58% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $3.32 | 87.41% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $3.31 | 87.60% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.36 | 87.49% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3.31 | 87.60% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $3.36 | 87.39% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $3.39 | 87.49% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.36 | 87.39% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $3.39 | 87.49% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $3.40 | 87.51% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.50 | 87.50% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed remarkable 33.3% exotic 3.3% violet 30.0% Mythical 6.7% #8847ff 3.3% blue 16.7% Legendary 3.3% high 3.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.44 on average: an expected loss of $12.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt