---
title: "WAVE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "WAVE ($0.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 30 items with odds, observed 86.26% over 44.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [WAVE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · WAVE

A case on Casehug (STICKER CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave?window=all)

Price · $0.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.44 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.26% · 44.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.51% ±5.39 3,619 openings

7 days · 86.03% ±1.68 38.4K openings

30 days · 86.26% ±1.56 44.6K openings

since tracking started · 86.26% ±1.56 44.6K openings

83.5% 89.5% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave?window=24h) | 3,619 | 89.51% ±5.39 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave?window=7d) | 38.4K | 86.03% ±1.68 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave) | 44.6K | 86.26% ±1.56 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/wave?window=all) | 44.6K | 86.26% ±1.56 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) | 1 in 2,222 | $21.71 | 2.2% | 15 | 20.1 | 0.75× |
| [Sticker \| Blaze Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blaze-surf-k-foil) | 1 in 1,389 | $13.39 | 2.2% | 26 | 32.2 | 0.81× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii T (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-t-holo) | 1 in 885 | $8.55 | 2.2% | 47 | 50.5 | 0.93× |
| [Sticker \| Great Wave (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave-holo) | 1 in 885 | $8.48 | 2.2% | 50 | 50.5 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| V For Victory (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v-for-victory-holo) | 1 in 680 | $6.49 | 2.2% | 74 | 65.7 | 1.13× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) | 1 in 654 | $6.26 | 2.2% | 72 | 68.3 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Unicorn (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-unicorn-holo) | 1 in 302 | $2.88 | 2.2% | 143 | 147.9 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Salty (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-salty-holo) | 1 in 288 | $2.75 | 2.2% | 147 | 155.0 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Sherry (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sherry-holo) | 1 in 228 | $2.17 | 2.2% | 203 | 196.1 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| T Rush (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-t-rush-holo) | 1 in 167 | $1.59 | 2.2% | 241 | 267.1 | 0.90× |
| [Sticker \| Cbbl (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cbbl-holo) | 1 in 142 | $1.35 | 2.2% | 317 | 314.9 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Coiled Strike (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coiled-strike-holo) | 1 in 142 | $1.35 | 2.2% | 298 | 314.9 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Mastermind (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mastermind-holo) | 1 in 122 | $1.16 | 2.2% | 371 | 366.8 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Rush 4x20 (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20-holo) | 1 in 121 | $1.15 | 2.2% | 326 | 369.9 | 0.88× |
| [Sticker \| One Sting (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-sting-holo) | 1 in 99 | $0.94 | 2.2% | 493 | 452.1 | 1.09× |
| [Sticker \| Nice Clutch (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nice-clutch-holo) | 1 in 99 | $0.94 | 2.2% | 484 | 452.1 | 1.07× |
| [Sticker \| Combine Helmet (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-combine-helmet-holo) | 1 in 88 | $0.84 | 2.2% | 503 | 505.7 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Get Smoked (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-get-smoked-holo) | 1 in 81 | $0.77 | 2.2% | 573 | 551.7 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Ace Clutch Co. (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ace-clutch-co-holo) | 1 in 55 | $0.52 | 2.2% | 1,591 | 817.1 | 1.95× |
| [Sticker \| Cyber Chicken (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cyber-chicken-holo) | 1 in 15 | $0.48 | 7.1% | 1,477 | 2893.9 | 0.51× |
| [Sticker \| Conspiracy Club (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-conspiracy-club-holo) | 1 in 13 | $0.34 | 5.8% | 3,516 | 3348.2 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Toxic sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toxic) | 1 in 13 | $0.32 | 5.6% | 3,501 | 3430.4 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Go Boom (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-go-boom-glitter) | 1 in 13 | $0.32 | 5.6% | 3,448 | 3430.4 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Longevity sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-longevity) | 1 in 13 | $0.29 | 5.3% | 3,589 | 3568.0 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Door Stuck (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-door-stuck-foil) | 1 in 13 | $0.29 | 5.3% | 3,421 | 3568.0 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Guinea Pig (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-guinea-pig-holo) | 1 in 12 | $0.26 | 5.0% | 3,964 | 3727.5 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Heresy sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-heresy) | 1 in 12 | $0.26 | 5.0% | 3,780 | 3727.5 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Speedy T sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-speedy-t) | 1 in 12 | $0.24 | 4.7% | 3,937 | 3848.6 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Move It sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-move-it) | 1 in 12 | $0.24 | 4.7% | 4,014 | 3848.6 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Fancy Koi sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi) | 1 in 11 | $0.21 | 4.4% | 4,052 | 4083.1 | 0.99× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/wave`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=wave)

[Sticker | Conspiracy Club (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-conspiracy-club-holo) [Anyxaa10](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Anyxaa10) $0.50 $0.34 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[Sticker | Longevity sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-longevity) Hidden $0.50 $0.29 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[Sticker | Ace Clutch Co. (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ace-clutch-co-holo) [Porębiarz\_45CS2.ME SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Por%C4%99biarz_45CS2.ME%20SKINS) $0.50 $0.52 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[Sticker | Guinea Pig (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-guinea-pig-holo) [\*\*\*MAMMON\*\*\*cs.goskins](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/***MAMMON***cs.goskins-76561198415983836) $0.50 $0.26 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Sticker | Go Boom (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-go-boom-glitter) [\*\*\*MAMMON\*\*\*cs.goskins](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/***MAMMON***cs.goskins-76561198415983836) $0.50 $0.32 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Sticker | Conspiracy Club (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-conspiracy-club-holo) [\*\*\*MAMMON\*\*\*cs.goskins](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/***MAMMON***cs.goskins-76561198415983836) $0.50 $0.34 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Sticker | Conspiracy Club (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-conspiracy-club-holo) [\*\*\*MAMMON\*\*\*cs.goskins](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/***MAMMON***cs.goskins-76561198415983836) $0.50 $0.34 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Sticker | Fancy Koi sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fancy-koi) [\*\*\*MAMMON\*\*\*cs.goskins](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/***MAMMON***cs.goskins-76561198415983836) $0.50 $0.21 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Sticker | Conspiracy Club (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-conspiracy-club-holo) [\*\*\*MAMMON\*\*\*cs.goskins](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/***MAMMON***cs.goskins-76561198415983836) $0.50 $0.34 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Sticker | Nice Clutch (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nice-clutch-holo) [\*\*\*MAMMON\*\*\*cs.goskins](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/***MAMMON***cs.goskins-76561198415983836) $0.50 $0.94 1.88x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.50 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $0.50 | 88.11% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $0.50 | 89.40% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $0.50 | 89.33% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $0.50 | 88.21% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $0.50 | 85.46% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.50 | 87.15% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $0.50 | 85.46% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $0.50 | 87.69% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $0.50 | 86.93% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.50 | 86.69% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $0.50 | 86.04% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.50 | 86.10% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $0.50 | 86.64% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $0.50 | 86.52% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.50 | 88.38% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed remarkable 12.8% exotic 0.1% violet 27.0% Mythical 0.8% #8847ff 1.0% blue 41.8% Legendary 8.0% high 8.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt