---
title: "WHITE WIDOW JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "WHITE WIDOW JOKER ($22.36) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 35 items with odds, observed 88.66% over 21.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [WHITE WIDOW JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · WHITE WIDOW JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow-joker?window=all)

Price · $22.36

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $19.57 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.66% · 21.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 89.09% ±4.42 16.4K openings

30 days · 88.66% ±3.86 21.6K openings

since tracking started · 88.66% ±3.86 21.6K openings

84.0% 89.0% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow-joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow-joker?window=7d) | 16.4K | 89.09% ±4.42 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow-joker) | 21.6K | 88.66% ±3.86 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/white-widow-joker?window=all) | 21.6K | 88.66% ±3.86 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 27 | $347 | 65.6% | 819 | 800.1 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $71.94 | 13.6% | 778 | 800.1 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $42.12 | 8.0% | 819 | 800.1 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $20.70 | 1.3% | 0 | 266.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $16.49 | 0.8% | 0 | 199.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $14.83 | 0.9% | 0 | 266.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $14.66 | 0.9% | 0 | 266.8 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $14.24 | 1.3% | 0 | 399.9 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $10.16 | 1.0% | 0 | 400.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $9.67 | 0.5% | 0 | 200.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $8.42 | 0.5% | 0 | 266.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $7.28 | 0.3% | 0 | 200.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $6.33 | 0.3% | 0 | 200.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $6.20 | 0.4% | 0 | 266.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $4.31 | 0.3% | 0 | 266.8 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $3.81 | 0.7% | 744 | 800.1 | 0.93× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $2.48 | 0.5% | 782 | 800.3 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $2.33 | 0.4% | 824 | 800.3 | 1.03× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1.91 | 0.4% | 809 | 800.3 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) | 1 in 27 | $1.91 | 0.4% | 763 | 800.3 | 0.95× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1.24 | 0.2% | 783 | 800.3 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1.24 | 0.2% | 746 | 800.3 | 0.93× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $1.07 | 0.2% | 809 | 800.3 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $1.03 | 0.2% | 810 | 800.3 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) | 1 in 27 | $0.70 | 0.1% | 813 | 800.3 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Rainbow Route (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route-holo) | 1 in 27 | $0.67 | 0.1% | 769 | 800.3 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.58 | 0.1% | 810 | 800.3 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.50 | 0.1% | 866 | 800.3 | 1.08× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.49 | 0.1% | 798 | 800.3 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 849 | 800.3 | 1.06× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 759 | 800.3 | 0.95× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.44 | 0.1% | 784 | 800.3 | 0.98× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.44 | 0.1% | 838 | 800.3 | 1.05× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.43 | 0.1% | 795 | 800.3 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.38 | 0.1% | 838 | 800.3 | 1.05× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/white-widow-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=white-widow-joker)

[Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) Hidden $22.36 $0.46 0.02x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) Hidden $22.36 $3.81 0.17x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) [lolo2316](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/lolo2316) $22.36 $0.38 0.02x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $22.36 $71.94 3.22x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $22.36 $0.46 0.02x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) [xMa\_Tix](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/xMa_Tix) $22.36 $0.46 0.02x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.36 $1.07 0.05x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[Sticker | High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) Hidden $22.36 $0.70 0.03x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[Sticker | Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) Hidden $22.36 $1.91 0.09x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [K7 Mindu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/K7%20Mindu) $22.36 $347 15.50x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $22.36 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $22.54 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $21.93 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $22.26 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $21.91 | 87.52% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $21.93 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $21.92 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $22.24 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $21.91 | 87.52% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $21.90 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $22.24 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $22.28 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $22.32 | 87.51% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $22.08 | 87.51% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $22.27 | 87.52% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $22.67 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $22.77 | 87.50% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.4% red 3.7% Legendary 1.2% Mythical 0.9% pink 8.6% classified 3.7% violet 26.9% restricted 1.9% uncommon 1.2% blue 11.1% gray 22.2% #d32ce6 3.7% grey 3.7% #8847ff 3.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt